In Game 1 between the Chicago Sky and the Connecticut Sun, Candace Parker put together one of the best statistical performances in the history of the WNBA but still failed to protect home court.
In Game 2, she was transcendent yet again, but this time she had help. All five Chicago starters scored in double figures to help even the series at 1-1.
Now the action shifts to Connecticut, as the Sun hope to bounce back against a Sky team that has shown they can go to another level when their backs are against the wall. Will the Sun match the Sky’s urgency on Sunday, September 4? Or will Chicago regain control of the series?
Find out where we’re leaning with our WNBA picks and predictions for Game 3 of Sky vs. Sun below.
Sky vs Sun Game 3 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Chicago Sky have gone from 1-point dogs to -1 point favorites at most books. The total has been set at 163.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Sky vs Sun Game 3 predictions
Predictions made on 9/3/2022 at 11:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sky vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CN
• Date: Sunday, September 4, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Sky vs Sun series odds
Sky: -125
Sun: +100
Sky vs Sun betting preview
Key injuries
Sky: No key injuries to report.
Sun: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in Chicago's last five road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Sun.
Sky vs Sun Game 3 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
After losing a slugging match in Game 1, the Chicago Sky evened the series against the Connecticut Sun in convincing fashion. The final score was 85-77, but that’s not representative of how dominant the Sky were, who had a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter until they opted to sit many of their starters. It was a thrashing from start to finish, and they did it in quintessential Chicago Sky fashion.
Screen, pass, cut. They’re fundamentals, but Chicago takes those fundamentals to high art. It’s beautiful to watch but must be frustrating to play against. And in contrast to Game 1, the Sky played with much greater force. They were much more aggressive in attacking screens and even instituted a limited press at times.
The press was more about a kind of mentality for Chicago than its tactical value, as that commitment to early and constant pressure was what defined the Sky’s play on both ends in Game 2. The Sky dialed up the force and most of the Sun dimmed.
DeWanna Bonner uniquely struggled. She was shut down by the more aggressive Chicago hedging and didn’t get a clean look all night. Every time she tried to initiate a pick and roll she was swarmed by the Sky, with Rebekah Gardner proving a particularly persistent pest. Bonner finished 0-for-6 from the field and only took one shot in the last 18 minutes of the game.
Jonquel Jones was the only reason this game stayed close as long as it did. She was doing everything from high to low passing, hitting spot-up threes, hitting beautiful fadeaways, and finishing through contact. It was truly impressive.
It was also another masterful performance by Candace Parker, who totaled 22 points on 8-for-13 shooting. But unlike her heroics in Game 1, she didn’t do it alone. The entire Chicago starting lineup scored in double digits while dialing up the defensive pressure too.
The Sun tried to go back to their jumbo lineup of Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones, and Brionna Jones late in the first half, but the more tightly called game didn’t allow the Sun to enforce their physicality. After being called for just seven personal fouls the previous game, the Sun were whistled for 17 in Game 2.
The Sky demonstrated how deadly their offense can be while the Sun have yet to figure out Chicago’s defense. Until they prove they can score against the Sky, I’m picking against Connecticut.
Prediction: Sky -1 (-120 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
Game 2 just barely cashed Under 163.5, in large part because the Sun’s total was inflated by a late fourth-quarter rally against mostly Sky second-stringers. Even though I like the Sky in Sunday’s matchup, I don’t foresee a blowout in Mohegan Sun. A more competitive Game 2 would have seen the Under cash easily, and it’s set at the same total for Game 3.
The Sun struggled mightily to contain the Sky on the interior. They seemed to be on the wrong side of a back door cut on every other play, but they did manage to do a decent job denying open perimeter shots. The Sky only took 15 threes in Game 2, compared to their regular season average of 20.9. Both teams also shot well over their season average from three, which seems a mark primed for regression.
These squads are smart, and they’re familiar with what the opposing team likes to run. That familiarity only grows over the course of a series like this, which is why (all things being equal) I begin to favor Unders from Game 3 and on in most circumstances.
Not only do legs get tired, but habits and defensive rotations become more entrenched. It’s one thing to memorize a scouting report, but it’s quite another to develop in-game pattern recognition and reinforce it in off-day practices against a specific team.
The Under has cashed in the last four Sky games, and four of the last five Sun games. I have every reason to believe it’s going that way Sunday as well.
Prediction: Under 163.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
Parker, as noted, was sublime, but as ever, the Sky hit their peak when all five of their starters are in sync from the jump. After a poor performance in Game 1, Courtney Vandersloot got back to doing what she does best in Game 2 and her floor game made every other Sky player's life easier.
Vandersloot made a concerted effort from the start of the game to drive and attack, creating more opportunities for herself and her teammates. She ultimately scored four baskets, all of them coming right at the rim, but her drives allowed her to notch a game-high eight assists. The Sun just don’t have anyone in their healthy backcourt capable of replicating that kind of playmaking.
Bonner is someone who should have a bounce-back performance in Game 3, but it’s harder to find the lineups and spacing that will allow the Sun’s best players outside of Jonquel Jones to have success. The court seems smaller and smaller, and for all her many talents, Alyssa Thomas’s inability to space the floor, and the Sun guard's lack of offensive versatility, had them playing into the hands of Sky defense over and over again.
With the Sky backcourt re-established in the series, home court advantage will not be enough to make up the gap between these two teams in Game 3.
Pick: Sky moneyline (-110 at bet365)
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