Similar to last season, this year's WNBA Championship odds greatly favor the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty.
Those super teams sit atop the 2024 WNBA futures, priced at +100 and +250, respectively. According to those odds, there’s about a 21% shot at the WNBA title remaining for the other 10 teams.
Does that make anything but an Aces or Liberty ticket “dead money”?
Probably. But hey, it’s why we play the games.
With the season tipping off next week, I break down the futures by tier and give my best picks and predictions — favorite, sleeper, and long shot — for the 2024 WNBA Championship.
WNBA Championship odds
Favorite
New York Liberty (+250 at DraftKings)
Las Vegas is still the team to beat, as the Aces pursue their third straight title, but I believe we’ll get a better price on them later in the summer.
As with most dynasties, the regular season becomes a formality and focus can sway, as the team and coaches prioritize the postseason above all. We’ll see the Aces stumble at some point — puffing up their futures — and that’s when you bet them.
As for New York, this team is giving me 2012 Miami Heat vibes. That former superteam of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh struggled in their first year together, as roles were unclear. But once the stars settled in, Miami was unstoppable.
The Liberty went through the same growing pains last spring, which showed in their early ATS success. Halfway through the year, the new faces started to gel, and New York looked like the team everyone expected. It came up short against Vegas in the finals, but that’s just another lesson ahead of 2024.
The Liberty have MVP Breanna Stewart, former MVP Jonquel Jones, 3-point record holder Sabrina Ionescu, veteran PG Courtney Vandersloot, and 40-game starter Betnijah Laney-Hamilton all back. That’s as good a starting five as any in the league this season.
Depth is an issue, but New York won’t face as tough a test in the East as Vegas does in the West, with next-tier foes like Seattle, Minnesota, and Dallas showing up more frequently on the Aces’ schedule.
The Liberty are going to run the table in the East, so the championship odds aren’t going to get any better than they are right now. Some books are as low as +230 on the Libs, but you can find highs of +250 out there.
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Sleeper
Seattle Storm (+1,400 at DraftKings)
Escalation is the name of the game in the WNBA this season. With New York forming a super team to combat the Aces last year, a handful of other franchises have sold out on long-term planning to chase New York and Las Vegas in 2024.
Seattle is one of those teams.
The Storm didn’t wait long to rebuild after an 11-win 2023, signing up free agents Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike to play alongside league-leading scorer Jewel Loyd and blossoming big Ezi Magbegor. Second-year guard Jordan Horston rounds out a stellar starting five, but like Vegas and N.Y. depth becomes an issue if injuries arise.
Those offseason moves have the Storm sitting among four teams (alongside Connecticut, Indiana, and Dallas) clumped behind those WNBA powers, with title odds ranging from +800 to +2,500. You can find Seattle between +800 and +1,400.
While I believe the same chemistry concerns that impacted the Liberty are on deck for Seattle, I like its chances more than an aging Sun squad, an overhyped Fever team, and a Wings roster without Satou Sabally for the first half of the summer.
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Long Shot
Minnesota Lynx (+6,000 at DraftKings)
I’m either going to be really right about the Minnesota Lynx, or really wrong. My 2024 WNBA power ratings rank Minnesota as a contending team in the West, pegging it for another playoff appearance and upwards of 20-plus wins.
The Lynx have a great roster, anchored by an unappreciated superstar Napheesa Collier. She’s a live sleeper for MVP after ranking Top 5 in Player Impact Estimate last season. No matter what sport you’re playing, you have a shot to win if you have the best player on the floor. Minnesota will most nights.
The organization made smart additions in Alana Smith, Natisha Hiedeman, and Courtney Williams: veterans who will have an impact on and off the floor alongside shooter Kayla McBride. And it’s hard not to get excited about the Lynx’s future when you see Diamond Miller, Dorka Juhasz, and first-round pick Alissa Pili play.
All coach Cheryl Reeve needs to do is squeeze a little defense out of them. Minnesota was horrible on that end of the floor in 2023, ranking 10th in advanced defensive rating and allowing a league-high 8.9 triples per game. The Top 3 favorites to win the 2024 title ranked 1-2-3 in defensive rating last season. The Lynx had better learn to lock it up.
