Best WNBA Player Props Today: Bonner Can't Break Through Against Storm

Prop bet #1: Samuelson Under 1.5 threes

On the surface, Karlie Samuelson has found her shot, the one the Washington Mystics spent on this offseason. In her last three games, Samuelson has hit at least two threes and has gone 8 of 17 (47.1%) from deep.

Before that, Samuelson had hit multiple 3-pointers in just two of 10, going a woeful 14-for-49 (28.6%). She wasn't solely responsible for Washington going 1-9 in that stretch, but Samuelson’s misses contributed to the struggles.

Samuelson’s rally of late has helped the Mystics find some wins — now 3-13 — far from quality, but clearly a change in trends. The most recent win came just yesterday, a 28-point blowout of these same Dallas Wings. Samuelson went 3-for-5 from deep on her way to 17 points.

Consider that an anomaly. The Wings rank No. 3 in the WNBA in 3-pointers attempted against and No. 4 in 3-pointer percentage against — just 32.1%. Samuelson’s afternoon of success was a surprise, both compared to her recent trends and Dallas’ usual defense.

Trusting those trends to revert today provides value with this prop set to plus money.

Karlie Samuelson prop: Under 1.5 made 3s (+125 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Bonner Under 16.5 points

Bonner started off the season in scorching fashion, clearing this prop in eight of her first nine games and averaging 19.1 points with five games of 20 or more. She looked more like a 26-year-old than a 36-year-old in her 15th season.

Perhaps the fatigue of the season has caught up to Bonner, or maybe he's hit a lull. or, it could be opponents are better studying film of the Connecticut Sun after this 13-2 start to the season.

No matter the reason, Bonner has clearly fallen off. She's cleared this prop once over her last six while averaging 13.2 points. In two of those games, Bonner didn't attempt a single free throw. She averaged 15.6 shot attempts in the first nine games, a rate that has fallen to 12.3 in the last six.

The Storm enjoy the No. 3 defensive rating in the WNBA, one buttressed by their perimeter defense. That should limit Bonner tonight, particularly in her seventh game in 16 days.

DeWanna Bonner prop: Under 16.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Clark under 2.5 threes

Caitlin Clark may be underrated. Opponents are devoting much of their defensive schemes to slowing the rookie phenom, and yet she is four percentage points better than the league average in true shooting percentage.

During Indiana’s current four-game winning streak, that has risen as high as 62.9%, in part thanks to going 10-for-27 (37.0%) from beyond the arc — including going 3-of-7 against this same Chicago Sky team exactly a week ago.

Taking seven shots from deep against the Sky was a surprise. Not so much in that Clark does not take that many threes, given she has averaged 8.6 attempts per game in her 16 other games this season. Rather, Chicago gives up the fewest looks from deep of any defense in the WNBA, with only 20.4 opposing long balls attempted per game.

Clark should be chased off the perimeter a bit more often this afternoon. It makes sense in terms of the Sky’s defense returning to form as well as in terms of Chicago overreacting to last week’s offensive display.

Caitlin Clark prop: Under 2.5 made threes (+140 at DraftKings)