Despite featuring multiple MVP-caliber scorers, the WNBA semifinal matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm has been largely defined by defense. It’s fitting then that these two teams are both getting defensive reinforcements ahead of Game 3.
With both Gabby Williams and Dearica Hamby back in action, entirely new dynamics could decide this close-fought series. Our WNBA picks and predictions think that even though the Aces are getting back an All-Star, Gabby Williams' return will prove decisive for Seattle’s chances.
Aces vs Storm Game 3 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Seattle has been holding steady as -1 point favorites at most books. The total has seen a slight rise from 167 to 167.5
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Aces vs Storm Game 3 predictions
Predictions made on 9/4/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Aces vs Storm info
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
• Date: Sunday, September 4, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Aces vs Storm series odds
Aces: -160
Storm: +135
Aces vs Storm betting preview
Key injuries
Aces: No key injuries to report.
Storm: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 12-5 in Las Vegas' last 17 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Storm.
Aces vs Storm Game 3 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
This is about as close a series as you’ll ever see. Through two games, the Storm and Aces have both demonstrated that they have the talent and tactical flexibility to win this series.
The Storm struck first, stealing Game 1 on the road with the surprise insertion of Stephanie Talbot into the starting lineup. Not to be outdone, Las Vegas went to a super small-ball lineup in Game 2, leading to an unanswered run that ultimately won the game for the Aces.
Becky Hammon went with a lineup of A’ja Wilson at the five surrounded by Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Riquna Williams. The guard-heavy lineup supercharged the Aces' spacing and gave them just enough offensive justice to eke out a hard-fought victory against the Storm.
It didn’t matter that Riquna Williams missed every shot she took from the field, the Storm still had to honor her outside the arc, and it gave the Aces' on-ball stars room to operate. A’ja and Gray got to go one-on-one without any Storm players cheating into the lane to stop them. It was devastatingly effective. The pair finished a combined 20-31 from the field for 52 points, and the small lineup outscored the Storm by 16 points during their 16 minutes on the court.
The Storm weren’t able to punish the smaller Storm units on the other end. either. Gray as the most athletic of the four-guard group was often the one left facing down one of the Storm bigs. She held her own, successfully swiping the ball away multiple times as the Storm threatened to score inside.
If that formula held, Seattle would be in trouble. Fortunately for them, they’re getting back one of the WNBA’s premier wing defenders for Sunday.
Gabby Williams will make her return after a concussion suffered against the Washington Mystics two weeks ago. With her ability to credibly defend one through four, she instantly transforms the Storms' perimeter defense. Most importantly, the Storm now have good options to guard both A’ja and Chelsea Gray in isolation. Williams is facing no minutes restriction.
Vegas is also getting some help in the return of Dearica Hamby. Not only was Hamby an All-Star and a critical defender for the Aces this season, but their roster is also substantially more top-heavy than the Storm.
The loss of Hamby was as damaging because of her absence as it was because of the drop-off to the players that were forced to fill in around her, but while Hamby is making her return, Becky Hammon told reporters that she planned to use Hamby sparingly for Sunday’s game, indicating that Hamby is far from fully recovered.
In a series this tight and a line this small, I’m giving the edge to the Storm, whose outstanding defense should be even more suffocating with Williams back.
Prediction: Storm -1 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
Neither team has eclipsed 80 points through two games in this series, and both are about to receive major defensive reinforcements on the wing. The shot-making has also been unreal by Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, and Chelsea Gray in particular.
The Aces were the league’s No. 1 offense this season, but that’s all the more reason to think Under in this matchup. The reason that the Under is 12-5 in the Aces' last 17 overall is that books have built in huge expectations for this Aces offense based on their regular season success, but the playoffs (and the Storm) are a different animal entirely.
It’s also relevant to note that Dearica Hamby’s return might have more impact on the Under than just the obvious. Even before Hamby went out with injury, she had been relegated to a bench role because her erratic shooting was so harming the spacing of the starting lineup.
Hamby's return might augur worse offensive performances by both teams.
Prediction: Under 167.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
The most remarkable statistic from this series is the decline in Las Vegas’ transition offense. Seattle allowed zero fast break points by the Aces in Game 1, and just six in Game 2, despite Las Vegas downsizing to a smaller, faster, guard-based group. In the regular season, the Aces averaged just shy of 12 fast break points per game.
Seattle’s transition defense is nothing short of sublime. Their floor balance is impeccable and they almost never find themselves in unfavorable cross-matches. That they’ve essentially broken even with Las Vegas in terms of offensive rebounding over the first two games should be considered something of a minor miracle, because they put every emphasis on stopping the break at the expense of the offensive glass.
It’s a fundamental strength of this Seattle team that should only improve with Gabby Williams back in the fold, and it’s a big part of why I like the Under.
Pick: Under 167.5 (-110 at Betway)
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