The Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders wrap up their respective regular seasons tonight.
New York is rolling along a 7-0-1 stretch with the fewest goals against (1.63) and a league-high .945 team save percentage, but with nothing left to play for, what version of the Isles will show up? The Penguins are a road favorite in the NHL odds, and I expect the Pittsburgh veterans will look to finish a disappointing season on a high note.
Here are our free NHL picks and Penguins vs. Islanders predictions on Wednesday, April 17.
Penguins vs Islanders prediction
My best bet
Under 6.0 goals (+103 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
There’s potential for both teams to have regulars out of the lineup for tonight's meaningless game, and it’s also difficult to quantify the motivation levels of both clubs. The New York Islanders will want to finish the season strong while also making sure they’re at their best and healthiest for Game 1 against the Carolina Hurricanes, and while I don’t think the Pittsburgh Penguins mail it in, this has to be a deflated group after a late-season push came up short.
Still, it’s hard to ignore how well Islanders goalies Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin have been, and there will be motivation for Wednesday’s starter to have a strong final game to strengthen the case to be the No. 1 against Carolina. The Islanders have allowed two goals or fewer in each of their past seven games, after all.
Pittsburgh has been playing in high-scoring games, but I expect both clubs to roll all four lines in a low-event game with minimal quality-scoring chances. More specifically, I anticipate the bulk of tonight's game to be played at even strength, and the Isles have allowed just 1.2 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during the noted eight-game surge to clinch a postseason berth.
Finally, even if impact players rest for New York — or Pittsburgh — this is the last chance for those stepping into the lineup to make an impression, so attention to detail and not making a defensive mistake will be front of mind.
Penguins vs Islanders same-game parlay (SGP)
Islanders moneyline
Under 5.5
The home underdog has the better goaltender and is going to the playoffs, and I don’t think Islanders head coach Patrick Roy will allow the competitive edge on his bench to soften. Pittsburgh hasn’t traveled well this season with a 15-17-8 record, and as discussed, I don’t see Pens head coach Mike Sullivan sending his best players over the boards for big minutes in a meaningless game.
Betting this same-game parlay through bet365 is also advised because it’s priced at just +305 at DraftKings. The difference in the +325 bet365 odds and the DraftKings price is a positive expected value of 5%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Penguins vs Islanders odds
Penguins vs Islanders live odds
Penguins vs Islanders opening odds
- Puck line: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+190) | New York +1.5 (-230)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -130 | New York +110
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (+100)
Penguins vs Islanders moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Pittsburgh side of this moneyline has seen a slight move. Pinnacle opened Pittsburgh at -125, and the Pens are trading at -132 as of Wednesday morning.
- While a few New York regulars are set to rest, I wouldn’t be shocked if there was buyback on the Isles because of their high-end goaltending.
- There isn’t a consensus total for this game. The available 5.5 numbers have the higher vig attached to the Over, while most of the 6.0 totals have even -110 prices on both sides.
- Sports Interaction moved from an opening 5.5 (-120/+100) to a 6.0 total with a -110 vig on both sides as of Wednesday morning, for example.
Penguins vs Islanders trend
The Islanders have won seven of their past eight games, and the Under has gone 5-2-1. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Islanders.
Penguins vs Islanders game info
| Location: | UBS Arena, Elmont, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-17-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet Pittsburgh, MSG |
Penguins vs Islanders latest injuries
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