The Los Angeles Dodgers are humming, winning seven of their last eight games, which includes an 8-4 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday.
My Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions eye an intriguing pitcher's duel between Landon Knack and Jordan Montgomery. According to MLB odds, the Dodgers are slight favorites at -115 and the total resides at 9.5.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks on Tuesday, April 30.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Under 9.5 (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers have needed help in the rotation with several impact arms absent due to injury. Up steps 26-year-old Landon Knack, who made his MLB debut two weeks ago and has performed admirably, allowing four earned runs on seven hits across 11 innings while striking out nine.
The right-hander was a second-round selection out of East Tennessee State in the 2020 draft and has developed as a strong prospect despite a rash of injuries in the minors. He’ll look to keep the good vibes going against an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that has struggled against right-handers, ranking 26th in both wRC+ (83) and wOBA (.289).
They’ve been especially poor at the dish lately, posting just a single run in three of their last five games. It shouldn’t come as much surprise that they’re just 1-4 in those games, averaging a measly two runs per game in that stretch. If Knack struggles, Dave Roberts can fall back on an effective bullpen that has posted solid numbers with a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.
On the flip side of things, veteran Jordan Montgomery has been stellar for Arizona despite going unsigned throughout the offseason. The towering lefty inked a one-year, $25 million contract and has been worth every penny in the early going, posting a 2.77 ERA, 3.16 xERA, and 3.31 FIP.
What he does isn’t necessarily sexy, but it is effective. He ranks in the 98th percentile in walk rate (2%) and the 91st percentile in barrel rate (2.4%), consistently limiting free passes and hard contact.
Those numbers are bound to regress eventually, but he still has a good track record for pitching effectively using a similar approach. His ERA has never finished above 3.90 in the four seasons in which he’s made more than 10 starts. His FIP has finished above 3.90 just once, and that was during his rookie year.
The 31-year-old has also posted strong numbers in previous matchups against some of the Dodgers’ top hitters, holding Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman to a combined 6-for-29 mark (.207 BA). Teoscar Hernandez is just 2-for-21 against the lefty, while Enrique Hernandez is 2-for-11.
The Diamondbacks have cashed the Under in four of their last five games and I’ll bet on that trend continuing. Bookmakers have jacked the total up to 9.5 and there’s even a juiced 10 starting to show in the market. I don’t believe that this inflated total is warranted.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 10
Dodgers moneyline
Landon Knack 3+ walks
The Dodgers are soaring with seven wins in their last eight games and can be had for a good price here against a faltering Diamondbacks squad that is just 1-4 in their last five.
Knack’s walk prop contributes to the odds as it’s seemingly contrarian, but it makes a bit more sense once you consider the Diamondbacks have been brutal against righties but still own the third-highest walk rate (10.6%). Knack allowed three walks in his last start and his walk rate (9.1%) is similar to what he posted at AAA (9.6%) a year ago.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks live odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+140) | Arizona +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -115 | Arizona -105
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles has hit the run line in 43 of its last 67 away games.
- Los Angeles is 4-0 in its last four games against a left-handed starter.
- Arizona has hit the Under in 61 of its last 112 games.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks are 4-8 O/U in their last 12 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, ARID |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Landon Knack (1-1, 3.27 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 2.77 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
