The Washington Capitals host the Boston Bruins in a pivotal Eastern Conference matchup tonight. Boston can clinch first place in the Atlantic Division with a win, while Washington is battling for the final wild card.
The visiting Bruins are trading as a road favorite, and they’re looking to build momentum going into the playoffs after last year’s first-round exit. Boston also topped Washington 3-2 in a shootout in their latest meeting on March 30.
Here are our free NHL picks and Bruins vs. Capitals predictions for their matchup at Capital One Arena on Monday, April 15.
Bruins vs Capitals prediction
My best bet
Capitals Under 2.5 goals (-104 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Both the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals sport underwhelming underlying numbers and have outperformed preseason expectations. They respectively rank 25th and 26th in Corsi For percentage and 18th and 25th in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5, with the big difference being Boston’s league-high 102.9 PDO and Washington ranking 24th with a 99.5 mark.
The puck luck might turn for Boston in the postseason against a high-end team, but Washington doesn’t fit that bill, and it’s surprising the Capitals are even contending for a playoff spot this late in the year. After all, the Caps don’t even have a winning record.
Washington will also be without top-four defensemen Nick Jensen (undisclosed) and Rasmus Sandin (upper body), and the Capitals are already sliding along a 2-5-2 stretch with a minus-13 goal differential. Projected starting goaltender Charlie Lindgren has an .898 save percentage and 3.20 GAA during the skid, too.
Still, the biggest knock on the Caps is their lack of offensive talent, and they’ve only scored more than two goals once during the noted nine-game slump. Additionally, I expect Washington to struggle to exit its zone and in the transition game with both Jensen and Sandin out.
Despite the highlighted shortcomings, Boston bench boss Jim Montgomery has coached up the club, and the Bruins continue to receive top-tier goaltending. Boston allows the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.7) and ranks seventh with an 82.3 penalty-kill percentage, and I don’t anticipate Washington creating enough quality chances to score more than two goals.
Finally, it’s Jeremy Swayman’s turn to start for the Spoked Bs, and he’s been solid all season with a .915 SV%, 2.56 GAA, and 0.36 goals saved above average — all top-10 marks among regulars.
Bruins vs Capitals same-game parlay (SGP)
Bruins 3-way ML
Capitals TT Under 2.5
Charlie McAvoy 2+ shots
The case for Boston winning and the Washington Under has been laid out, and I expect the Bruins to drive the play and possession. Charlie McAvoy leads Boston defensemen in minutes per game (24:51), is the quarterback on the No. 1 power-play unit, and 57.6% of his 5-on-5 zone starts are in the offensive end.
Washington has allowed the fourth-most shot attempts to opposing defensemen, so while McAvoy has only recorded two or more shots in two of his past seven games, this is a perfect setup for an uptick in volume for the big-minute defenseman.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bruins vs Capitals odds
Bruins vs Capitals live odds
Bruins vs Capitals opening odds
- Puck line: Boston -1.5 (+165) | Washington +1.5 (-200)
- Moneyline: Boston -160 | Washington +135
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-110) | Under 5.5 (-110)
Bruins vs Capitals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been movement to this moneyline since opening with Bruins -160 through Sports Interaction or bet365 as of Monday morning.
- Barring Washington opting to start backup Darcy Kuemper, I don't expect notable line movement ahead of the puck drop, either.
- The total is a consensus of 5.5, and several sportsbooks have the same -110 vig on both the Over and Under.
Bruins vs Capitals trend
Washington has scored two goals or fewer in eight of the past nine games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Capitals.
Bruins vs Capitals game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Monday, 4-15-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Monument |
Bruins vs Capitals latest injuries
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