Next Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Odds: Is This the End For McCarthy?

After getting thoroughly embarrassed at home against the Green Bay Packers, Mike McCarthy's future as Dallas Cowboys head coach immediately became a hot topic of conversation. If his tenure in Jerry's World is over, could Bill Belichick take his place?

Jan 14, 2024 • 22:49 ET • 4 min read
Bill Belichick NFL
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The Dallas Cowboys entered the NFL playoffs with the second-best record in the NFC and opened as 7.5-point favorites over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round.

Well, so much for that. The Packers jumped out to a 27-0 lead and never really looked back en route to a 48-32 victory. It was the first time in NFL history that a No. 7 seed had beaten a No. 2 seed. All in a day's work.

That it came on Dallas' home turf only adds insult to injury. Will it be enough for Jerry Jones to pull the trigger and dump head coach Mike McCarthy after three winning seasons in four years? The Cowboys haven't advanced beyond the Divisional Round since winning Super Bowl XXX in 1995, so maybe Jerry will turn to someone who knows a thing or two about winning the big one.

Here are the latest odds on who will be the next head coach of the Dallas Cowboys if McCarthy does not return.

Next Dallas Cowboys head coach odds

Coach  Odds
Bill Belichick -175
Bobby Slowik +550
Mike Vrabel +600
Jim Harbaugh +650
Dan Quinn +800
Raheem Morris +900
Kellen Moore +1,200
Ben Johnson +1,200
Pete Carroll +2,000
Todd Monken +2,000
Mike MacDonald +2,000
Deion Sanders +3,300
Eric Bienemy +3,300
Mike Kafka +3,300
Frank Smith +3,300
Brian Callahan +3,300
Antonio Pierce +3,300
Steve Wilks +3,300
Aaron Glenn +3,300

Odds as of January 14, 2024

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The Dallas Cowboys' situation at a glance

The Dallas Cowboys are affectionately — and sometimes sarcastically — referred to as "America's Team." They're seen as one of the NFL's elite franchises with the most public-facing owner in the land. Winning is the expectation in Dallas, not the exception. The only question is... why?

The Cowboys haven't advanced past the Divisional Round since beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XXX. That ended a run of three championships in four seasons. After Jason Garrett put together a respectable 85-67 record over 10 seasons at the helm, Jerry Jones showed him the door and hired former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy (which adds some extra comedy to Sunday's outcome for non-Cowboys fans).

Now, after three straight postseason berths married to a 1-3 playoff record, McCarthy's future with Dallas is at least somewhat in question, at least when it comes to armchair analysts. Nevertheless, there are options available if Jones decides the time is right to make a switch.

In addition to McCarthy, quarterback Dak Prescott — who threw two bad interceptions vs. Green Bay — may come under fire for the team's failures as well, which could lead to a change behind center if it's been deemed that he's had enough opportunities.

Favorites to be next Dallas Cowboys head coach

Bill Belichick (-175)

The White Whale. It's perfect timing. Belichick's storied tenure with the New England Patriots just officially came to an end and while there's no guarantee that he's champing at the bit to get right back to work, this would be an intriguing opportunity. 

It wouldn't be the first time the Cowboys turned to a coach with a championship pedigree, either. Dallas hired Bill Parcells ahead of the 2003 season. Granted, he didn't exactly remind Cowboys fans of his two Super Bowl rings from his New York Giants era, leading the Cowboys to two postseason berths in four seasons without winning a playoff game before retiring after the 2006 season.

Belichick had already won three Super Bowls with the Patriots by the time Parcells' Cowboys tenure ended. After a nine-year gap, he'd win three more as Tom Brady immortalized himself as the most decorated quarterback in NFL history. While the Pats waned in recent seasons following Brady's departure, Belichick would be in high demand and he would bring lofty expectations along with him.

When Bill Belichick's next team odds first became available, the Cowboys were nowhere to be seen as Sunday's elimination was not expected. 

Bobby Slowik (+550)

The Houston Texans carved up a fine Cleveland Browns defense in their Wild Card game to advance to the Divisional Round. At least some credit for C.J. Stroud's development and breakout will fall at offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's feet, who will likely be highly sought-after once the NFL playoffs wrap.

At 36, he would become the youngest head coach in the NFL if given the job. The Texans' turnaround after moving on from Deshaun Watson has been impressive and arrived faster than anyone would have anticipated. 

While this might be the best football move, it likely wouldn't surprise anyone if Jerry Jones went for a splashier move (a la Belichick).

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Mike Vrabel (+600)

When the Tennessee Titans fired Mike Vrabel in a head-scratching move after the end of the regular season, it was intimated that he wouldn't be on the unemployment line for long. Even after the Patriots — who seemed like a logical landing spot due to shared history — handed the reins to Jerod Mayo, other jobs seemed ripe for the picking. 

If the Cowboys gig does indeed become available, Vrabel would be a good fit. He's almost universally seen as a good coach and his frayed relationship with Titans brass likely won't affect that. The Seattle Seahawks job is available after Pete Carroll was let go, but Dan Quinn seems like a foregone conclusion there. But the Washington Commanders, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers, and Carolina Panthers are all looking for a new boss on the sidelines, though they're all in various stages of rebuild.

The Cowboys are at least good enough to win in the regular season now with Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Tony Pollard on the roster, which might appeal to Vrabel — and any coach, for that matter.

Jim Harbaugh (+650)

What job, if any, would be more appealing for Jim Harbaugh? He's coming off a national championship with the Michigan Wolverines and while he tasted success at the NFL level as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, Harbaugh never won the big one, losing to brother John's Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII.

Yes, Harbaugh is reportedly meeting with Chargers brass — a franchise he played for — but they look further away from being competitive than the Cowboys, and that meeting was scheduled before any inkling of an opening popped up in Dallas.

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