The number one seed in the AFC, Baltimore Ravens, are getting a huge boost just in time for the AFC Championship game against the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Mark Andrews has been activated and will play in his first game since an injury in Week 11.
The Ravens are slight favorites in the Conference Championship odds and will be hosting their first-ever Conference Championship game in franchise history.
We take a closer look at the Mark Andrews odds and give our best free NFL picks for Chiefs vs. Ravens on January 28. Be sure to keep up to date on the NFL odds and check out our Chiefs vs. Ravens predictions, along with our Chiefs vs. Ravens props and our Lamar Jackson odds spotlight!
Mark Andrews AFC Championship prop picks
- Under 3.5 receptions (-135 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
- Under 3.5 receptions + Gus Edwards Over 44.5 rushing yards + Justice Hill Under 33.5 receiving yards (+490 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mark Andrews AFC Championship prop pick
Under 3.5 receptions (-135)
Mark Andrews suffered what was thought to be a season-ending leg injury in Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the three-time Pro Bowl tight end has been activated for this Sunday’s AFC Championship game and should be a full go. Andrews averaged 4.8 receptions for 57.9 yards and six total touchdowns in his nine games before injury this season.
However, Isaiah Likely served himself extremely well in Andrews’ absence and will not just completely disappear from the rotation and targets, especially since Andrews has not played in 10 weeks. Likely averaged 3.3 receptions for 50.9 yards and six total touchdowns in the seven games without Andrews.
The Kansas City Chiefs' pass defense has been excellent this season, ranking fourth in the NFL allowing only 176.5 passing yards per game. They also allowed 19 passing touchdowns, which ranked fourth best in the league. The Chiefs have also been excellent against opposing tight ends. They allow only 2.4 receptions and 22.3 yards per tight end faced.
The best tight end they faced all season was T.J. Hockenson in Week 5 and even he was held to five catches for 51 yards. The best performance by a tight end against the Chiefs all season was by Donald Parham in a Week 18 game with many reserves playing and that was a five-reception game for 83 yards.
In his first game back, I think we will only see Andrews in specific situations, and may even be used a little bit more as a decoy than a main target for Lamar Jackson. Surprisingly, the line set for his reception total is 3.5. Andrews had two catches in each of his last two games before missing the next 10 weeks.
The Chiefs have been excellent all year at stopping tight ends and this game will be no different. Add in that Likely will still see a ton of playing time and Andrews will just be used situationally in his comeback from injury, and I believe this is a very solid Under play.
Prop: Under 3.5 receptions (-135 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
Mark Andrews AFC Championship same-game parlay
Mark Andrews Under 3.5 receptions
Gus Edwards Over 44.5 rushing yards
Justice Hill Under 33.5 receiving yards
30% boost available
There are a couple of plays I like in this game to combine with our best bet for a nice parlay.
We will start with the run game for Baltimore. The Chiefs' great pass defense has been offset by a poor run defense. They ranked 18th in rushing yards allowed in the regular season and allowed 182 yards on the ground to the Bills last week. Gus Edwards runs a similar style that gives the Chiefs the most fits and he has a very low total here in this game. I like his Over.
Finally, I will correlate that Edwards play with an Under for the other back in Baltimore, Justice Hill. The Ravens will likely use Hill more in the passing game and the run game will be dominated between Jackson and Edwards. Also, the addition of Dalvin Cook could eat into Hill’s run-game volume.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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