NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 17: Nico Collins, Noah Brown Torch Tennessee Secondary

We're on to Week 17 odds; the penultimate week of the regular season and our second-last chance to have a full slate of games for which to make choices for NFL player props.

Today, we're betting on the NFL odds for two star quarterbacks (although one is a bet on an arm and the other on a QB's legs), a red-hot wide receiver to torch a terrible pass defense, a couple of running backs to run roughshod over porous defenses, and then betting on a passing game so nice... I did it twice!

The push for the playoffs is on, so let's cash in on crunch time with my favorite free NFL picks and player props for Week 17.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Nico Collins Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
•  Noah Brown Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
• D'Andre Swift Over 63.5 rush yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Christian McCaffrey Over 86.5 rush yards (-110 at bet365)
  

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Week 17

Not-so-lone stars

George Constanza would be proud of me, because I'm double-dipping here on some Houston Texans wide receivers, because C.J. Stroud is back under center — and the Tennessee Titans secondary is bad.

Let's start with Nico Collins' odds, as his receiving yardage total is just 59.5. He's coming off a rough three-week stretch where he (and Stroud) got injured against the Jets, then he sat out Week 15 due to a calf injury, followed by a return last week where he was less than 100% and managed just four catches for 18 yards against Cleveland's No. 1-ranked defense with Case Keenum at QB.

In his last three full games where Stroud played, he averaged 7.7 catches and 120 yards per game, while he's averaged 90.9 ypg on the season with Stroud at QB.

Next, we'll look at Noah Brown's odds: The Texans' WR2 has a total of 43.5 yards for Sunday and has been up-and-down this season due to injuries, but dropped 325 yards in a two-game span... then missed two games due to injury, had two games (including the aforementioned Jets debacle) where he was just doing cardio, before logging 82 yards against these same Titans two weeks ago and leading all Houston WR with 36 yards against Cleveland.

So in his last six games, he's averaged almost 136 ypg against bad secondaries, struggled against elite secondaries, and then had one dud when he was coming back from injury.

So let me remind you: The Titans are a bad secondary.

Tennessee allows the fifth-most yards to wide receivers in the league, and with top CB Kristian Fulton on the IR and No. 2 CB Sean Murphy-Bunting questionable, both Collins and Brown could see a lot of Eric Garror and Tre Avery — the latter of which was targeted 13 times last week, allowing 10 catches for 106 yards (and two penalties) to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Titans have allowed 10 pass catchers to top 56 yards over the last four weeks, and I'd expect Stroud to be ready to get back to his pass-happy ways after missing the last 2.5 games.

Industry consensus projections put Collins at around 73 yards, with some models as high as 82.5, while Brown is projected as high as 56 yards with an average of 49.5

Both lend plenty of confidence that these guys can cruise past their totals on Sunday, so let's expect Stroud & Co. to do plenty of the "Squabble."

Prop: Nico Collins Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Prop: Noah Brown Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made on December 29 at 10:10 a.m. ET

Runnin' over the redbirds

The Philadelphia Eagles are finally starting to lean more on their running game again, and that has resulted in back-to-back productive weeks for RB D'Andre Swift.

With a matchup against the porous Arizona Cardinals run defense set for Week 17, I'm betting on D'Andre Swift's odds to continue churning yards out on the ground and top his rushing total, which has ticked up as high as 68.5 at some books but is still available at 63.5 at FanDuel.

After averaging nearly 17 carries (and 76.4 yards) per game from Weeks 2-9, while logging 15+ carries in six of those games, Swift's usage plummeted in the back half of the season; he averaged fewer than 11 carries over the next four games and failed to register 15 rushes in any of those games.

However, the last two weeks have seen Nick Sirianni give Swift 18 and 20 carries — his second and third-highest totals of the season — which he's turned into 166 yards.

Now, here comes a Cardinals team that allows the second-most rushing yards per game (123.4) to RBs this season and has yielded more than 110 rushing yards in 13/17 games.

Arizona just allowed Khalil Herbert to go for 112 yards last week, marking the fourth time in the last five weeks an opposing lead back has reached that mark.

Philadelphia's offense has always been at its best when it runs the balls consistently, and with the likelihood that the Eagles are nursing a lead (currently sitting as double-digit favorites), we could see a lot of Swift in the second half to wear down the defense... and the clock.

Some projection models forecast as much as 74 yards for Swift, with the industry consensus around 68 yards, giving a little buffer on this number.

The only concern is this game gets too out-of-hand, and the starters all get extended rest, but considering Philadelphia's defense has struggled and the team overall has lost three of four and failed to cover the spread in five straight, I think this stays close enough that Swift and the ground game will be used to the bitter end.

Prop: D'Andre Swift Over 63.5 rush yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Pick made on December 28 at 5:14 p.m. ET

CMC crushes the Commanders

The Washington Commanders defense is absolutely terrible. San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is absolutely amazing.

See where I'm going with this?

Betting the Over on Christian McCaffrey odds is never really a bad idea, but I love the Over on his rushing yardage total of 86.5 when he's facing a defense that has:

• Given up at least 91 yards on the ground in 14/15 games this season.
• Allowed 247 rush yards to the opposing lead back over the last two weeks.
• Gave up 95 rush yards last week to Breece Hall and the Jets' rushing attack that is dead last in rush EPA/play and 30th in rush success rate.

Now, the Commanders face a Niners squad that is No. 2 in rush EPA/play, No. 3 in rush success rate, with McCaffrey getting roughly 75% of all carries this season — and 84% of the rushes during the last seven games, where he's averaged 106.1 yards per game, has 93+ yards six times, and has registered 100+ in four of his last five outings.

There are some questions on whether QB Brock Purdy will play after suffering a shoulder injury last week, or if it will be veteran backup Sam Darnold, but I think either scenario plays right into the hands of CMC racking up yards — either San Fran leans on its stud to help protect its banged-up QB1 or it leans on CMC to take the load off a backup.

San Francisco is trying to wipe the taste of an ugly MNF performance last week out of its mouth, so it should be looking to take some frustrations out on the hapless Commanders, who are nearly two-touchdown underdogs.

There is also concern here that the starters are on the bench come the latter stages of the game, but with San Fran needing this win to stay in control of the No. 1 spot in the NFC, I think the Niners will want to put this game away as quickly as possible, meaning McCaffrey will do more than enough damage right from the jump.

Projection models range as high as 105 yards for CMC on Sunday, and as long as he even plays three quarters, I'm confident he puts up another monster game.

Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 86.5 rush yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 28 at 12:18 p.m. ET

Olove for Olave

There are major playoff implications for the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup this Sunday, but it's also a nice spot for betting on WR props — and I'm looking at Chris Olave's odds for the Saints WR to top 66.5 receiving yards.

Aside from a Week 15 dud against a suddenly solid Panthers secondary, Olave has been on a tear of late, averaging 112.5 ypg in his previous four other contests while recording 114+ yards in three of his last four overall.

He now faces a Buccaneers defense that has given up the most yards to WR this season (194.9 per game), has allowed an opposing WR to record 90+ yards in seven of its last nine games, and ranks 25th or worse in EPA allowed per play (0.076) and explosive pass play rate (16.95).

Plus, per Pro Football Focus, Tampa Bay is extremely bad at covering the splash zone — it allows a 62.7% catch rate, 13.4 yards per coverage snap, and an NFL-worst 52% explosive pass play rate in the area between the numbers and 10+ yards downfield.

Olave's cause is also helped by this being a good matchup for Saints QB Derek Carr, who is sixth in big-time throws and 12th in both yards per attempt and completion percentage when blitzed (min. 50 dropbacks) — and Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate.

And that's when the Bucs are healthy: No. 2 CB Carlton Davis and top pass rusher Shaq Barrett are both questionable, weakening an already bad pass defense.

Projection models sit as high as 84 yards for Olave on Sunday, with a consensus projection of 74.4, which gives me plenty of confidence that he can continue his torrid stretch and blow past this number against one of the worst pass defenses in football. 

Prop: Chris Olave Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 28 at 9:29 a.m. ET

Air to ground

Things were flat-out ugly last week for the Kansas City Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes, generating just 14 points and losing to a Raiders team that did not complete a pass in the final three quarters.

However, the one positive for Patrick was his effectiveness in scrambling — and ahead of a Week 17 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Over on his rushing total is the Patrick Mahomes odds I'm focused on.

Mahomes registered a season-high 10 rushing attempts and 53 yards on Christmas Day, with nine of those carries scramble plays out of necessity as he was under pressure on nearly 40% of his dropbacks, despite Las Vegas only blitzing 5% of the time.

Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Kounce had a field day against KC's beleaguered offensive line, and now with Trey Hendrickson set to come after him this week, I'm expecting Mahomes to use his legs again to keep the chains moving while the rest of his offense tries to get on the same page.

KC's QB is currently sporting a rush yards total of 20.5, a number he's topped 10 times this season, and he should also get a boost from facing a Cincinnati defense that plays man-to-man coverage at a Top-10 rate — man coverage generally means fewer eyes on the QB during a given play, which allows a better chance are productive scrambles.

The Bengals have allowed mobile quarterbacks to exploit them on the ground, as Lamar Jackson (twice), Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy averaged almost 51 rush yards per game.

Mahomes is the sixth-leading rusher among QBs in the league, and industry consensus projections put him at 25 yards, with some models forecasting as high as 30. That gives me confidence in him to again use his legs to pick up his teammates when the situation(s) require it.

Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 rush yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 28 at 8:50 a.m. ET

Prescotting the issue

Last week I made a critical mistake when betting on Dak Prescott odds: I backed the Dallas Cowboys QB to have a big game on the road, a spot where Dallas is just 3-5 this season and Prescott's statistics are significantly worse.

However, Week 17 sees the Cowboys return to the comforts of Jerry World for a Saturday night showdown against a Detroit Lions secondary that has crumbled over the back half of the season, so I'm again backing Dak... this time with the Over on his passing yards line of 270.5.

Dallas is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, with Prescott's effectiveness a big part of that: He's averaging 303.6 passing yards per game, with a 74% completion rate, at home (compared to just 220.9/63% on the road) and has topped 270 pass yards in each of his last four home contests.

The matchup against Detroit is also a good one, as the Lions possess the beautiful combination of a high-octane offense (30+ points in five of its last seven games) and a terrible secondary.

Detroit has scored 30+ points in five of its last seven games while yielding more than 308 passing ypg over its last six contests that did not see them face Justin Fields or Aidan O'Connell... including 411 yards last week to Nick Mullens.

This will also be Detroit's fourth road game in the last five weeks, so any added effect of road-weary legs will only further help boost Dak's chances at a big game.

Industry consensus projections put Dak in the 290-yard range, with some models forecasting as high as 319 yards. Considering the shootout potential (a dome game with easily the highest total of the week) I agree that Dak will again be slinging it on Saturday. 

Prop: Dak Prescott Over 270.5 pass yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Pick made on December 27 at 10:01 a.m. ET.

Covers NFL betting tools

NFL Week 17 prop betting card

• Dak Prescott Over 270.5 pass yards (-114)
• Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 rush yards (-110)
• Chris Olave Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Christian McCaffrey Over 86.5 rush yards (-110)
• D'Andre Swift Over 63.5 rush yards (-114)
• Nico Collins Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Noah Brown Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)

Last week: 2-4
Season to date: 38-38, -0.49 units

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