Dan Campbell has quickly delivered on his promise to change the culture of the Detroit Lions, leading them to their first NFC Championship Game in nearly 35 years.
They face the tall task of traveling to San Francisco to take on Brock Purdy and his compliment of weapons, who are on a mission to prove what they could have (or in their mind, would have) accomplished had Purdy not gone down with an injury a season ago.
Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will look to lean on Amon-Ra St. Brown much like they have all year to get to this exact point, so what does this matchup have in store?
Continue reading for free Lions vs. 49ers prop picks and a breakdown of the Amon-Ra St. Brown odds in our Lions vs. 49ers picks below.
Amon-Ra St. Brown NFC Championship prop picks
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Amon-Ra St. Brown NFC Championship prop pick
Over 85.5 receiving yards (-115)
Amon-Ra St. Brown seemingly flies under the radar each year despite putting up even more impressive numbers than the last. Maybe it's because he was just a fourth-round pick; maybe it's because he plays for a team that until this year was not viewed as a serious threat.
However, after putting up a 1,500+ yard season and now with the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game for the first time in nearly 35 years, the Sun God will now have the attention of America and more importantly, the San Francisco 49ers' defense.
St. Brown's strength is his consistency. He always finds a way to get open and be a reliable target, and he always produces as a result. His double-digit 100+ receiving yard games this year while also only posting two games below 50 yards (49 in one of those) is the perfect demonstration of that.
And while the Niners are a formidable defense, they aren't foolproof. Their -12.6% DVOA against opposing WR1s ranks 11th, which isn't bad — but it's not intimidating either.
St. Brown posted impressive stat lines against teams ranked near or better than the Niners (DVOA rank against WR1s, followed by receptions-yards-touchdowns):
Prop: Over 85.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Amon-Ra St. Brown NFC Championship same-game parlay
Over 85.5 receiving yards
Anytime TD
One thing you may notice across those stat lines is that St. Brown has found his way into the endzone in five of those six games against similarly or better-ranked opponents. Those six games account for half of his regular-season touchdowns.
And again, although the Niners have been a quality secondary and overall defense all year, they have had their fair share of soft spots.
They've allowed the 12th-most TDs to opposing receivers this year, demonstrating that despite their reputation, Amon-Ra has a better chance than many would believe to reach the end zone on Sunday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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