Zach Edey Props & Odds: Purdue Star Powers Up vs UConn

Prop bet #1: Letting Edey eat

This number opened at 23.5 and has moved to 24.5 but can still be grabbed at the slightly lower number at certain books. I obviously prefer the lower number but would also be willing to play the Over 24.5. After all, Edey has eclipsed that number in 10 of his last 12 games and is averaging 28.5 points per game on 64.5% shooting during that span. There are reasons to consider the Under since the Huskies have a terrific defense, play at an extremely slow pace, and also have Donovan Clingan, who is a strong interior defender. And at 7-foot-2 and 280 pounds, he actually has the size and mobility to compete with the 7-foot-4, 300-pound Edey. 

However, Edey should still surpass his points total based on sheer volume alone. Keep in mind that while he leads the country with 24.9 ppg on the season, that number is a bit suppressed due to blowout wins where he saw limited playing time or contests where he got into foul trouble. He's barely come off the floor in the last few rounds, missing a total of just three minutes in the last three games. He's also seen his usage rate rise against top competition when the Boilermakers need him to carry their offense. 

He dropped 40 points against an elite Tennessee defense in the Elite Eight and scored 35 against Alabama earlier this season. He also scored 25+ points in a total of six games against Marquette, Gonzaga, and Wisconsin. The Huskies play tough perimeter defense and their long guards will make it tough for Purdue's backcourt to get open looks. That should encourage them to force the ball to their dominant big man as much as possible.

Edey might not be his incredibly efficient self, but he should play enough minutes and take enough shots to surpass this number

Points prop: Over 23.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Step back in the paint

As efficient as these offenses have been, this game has a modest total of 145.5 due to the slower pace that both teams prefer. The Boilermakers are 244th in average time of possession on offense (18.0 seconds) while the Huskies are 294th (18.5).

Combine that sluggish tempo with accurate shooting and a pair of defenses that don't pressure ball-handlers, and we'll see a lower number of available rebounds in this contest. That's not even getting into the fact that UConn is fourth in the country in rebounding rate (56.4%), which is nearly at Purdue's level (first at 58.3%). 

In the Final Four, Edey finished with 12 rebounds in 40 minutes against a far worse rebounding NC State squad that couldn't box out on defense. If he couldn't eclipse 12 rebounds in that matchup, it doesn't seem likely that he'll go Over that number against UConn.

Rebounds prop: Under 12. 5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Hands like glue

Although Edey was productive against NC State on Saturday, he also turned the ball over five times. However, many of those turnovers happened when the Wolfpack double-teamed him and help defenders like Ben Middlebrooks were digging for the ball. Expect the Huskies to be more comfortable using Clingan to body up against Edey one-on-one, which will result in fewer ball-handling flubs from the Purdue big man. 

Keep in mind that Edey usually does a much better job of taking care of the ball and has fewer than three turnovers in eight of his last 12 games. The Huskies also don't apply much ball pressure and rank 251st in opponent turnover rate (15.6%) with that number ticking down to 13.8% since the start of the Big East Tournament.

Turnover prop: Under 2.5 turnovers (-115 at DraftKings)