The Los Angeles Dodgers (24-13) have won 12 of their last 14 games and look to keep going strong with a Tuesday matchup against the lowly Miami Marlins (10-27).
Looking at MLB odds, the Dodgers are hefty favorites at -340 on the moneyline while the total has been set at 8.
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto continue his dominance on the mound, and will Edward Cabrera be able to keep pace? Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks with Marlins vs. Dodgers predictions on Tuesday, May 7.
Marlins vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been fantastic since getting shelled for five earned runs in just a single inning in his debut. He’s allowed just six earned runs across his next six starts, good for a 1.64 ERA.
Simply put, he’s been one of the most effective starters in baseball and the Dodgers’ front office has to feel like they’ve gotten their money’s worth thus far from the Japanese import. He carries a 2.91 ERA, 3.32 xERA, and 2.61 FIP into Tuesday’s meeting with the Miami Marlins.
Miami has been lost at the dish, ranking 26th in wRC+ (88) and 24th in wOBA (.293) against right-handed pitching. The Marlins have already waved the white flag despite the season still being so young, trading away Luis Arraez, one of only two regulars with a wRC+ above 100. It’s only going downhill from here.
On the flip side, Miami sends the hard-throwing Edward Cabrera to the mound. His 6.05 ERA doesn’t look great, but the underlying metrics are more promising. His 3.50 xERA and 2.94 FIP point toward better days ahead, and most projection systems paint him with an ERA in the low 4.00s.
The 6-foot-5 hurler needs to clean up the walks and barrels, but he has a lot of strengths to build around. He pumps gas at 96 mph on his heater and his xBA (.186) indicates that opposing batters will stop pounding it for hits as frequently (.357 BA).
While his 11.1% barrel rate is concerning, he ranks in the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage (31.1%) and the 94th percentile in average exit velocity (84.8 mph). It wouldn’t be surprising if he brings that number down after sporting a respectable 6.9% barrel rate a year ago.
Cabrera has a strong 12.6% swinging strike rate and ranks in the 84th percentile in chase rate (84th). His stuff is good enough to fool batters routinely and he’s racked up an absurd amount of punchouts this season, averaging 13.97 Ks per nine innings.
I like the outlook for both starting pitchers, and one team’s lineup has already called it quits on the season. I’ll take the Under.
Marlins vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Edward Cabrera 6+ Strikeouts
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 6+ Strikeouts
Cabrera is rocking an impressive 35.3% K-rate supported by some impressive underlying metrics. It’ll be difficult to keep up this pace forever, but I see no reason to expect severe regression in the short term as long as he keeps pumping gas and making batters whiff.
Yamamoto, meanwhile, has a 30% K-rate and has recorded 6+ strikeouts in four of his previous five starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Marlins vs Dodgers odds
Marlins vs Dodgers live odds
Marlins vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Miami +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Moneyline: Miami +280 | Los Angeles -318
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Marlins vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers are red-hot, winning 12 of their last 14 games. That includes five straight wins at Dodger Stadium.
- The Marlins have lost three of their last four games. They swept the lowly Rockies, but if you take out that series, Miami is just 1-9 in its last 10 games.
- The total opened at 8.5 but has since been bet down to 8. Track any further changes using our MLB line movement tool.
Marlins vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have hit their Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Dodgers
Marlins vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLBN |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Edward Cabrera (1-1, 6.05 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3-1, 2.91 ERA) |
Marlins vs Dodgers latest injuries
Marlins vs Dodgers weather
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