The surging Minnesota Twins look to take three out of four from the Seattle Mariners, when they wrap up their series this afternoon at Target Field.
Since dropping to a season-worst 7-13 on April 22, Minnesota has ripped off 14 wins in its last 16 games, vaulting to second in the AL West, making another win a popular Mariners vs Twins prediction.
They are -130 moneyline favorites in the MLB odds, against a Seattle team that’s also second in its division, a game back of the Texas Rangers.
Read below for my free and MLB picks.
Mariners vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Under 7 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Minnesota simply has been playing better ball across the board for the last two weeks.
Offensively, the Twins are first in runs scored over the past 15 days and hitting a crisp .288, the second-best mark in baseball.
During this lengthy fun-run, which included a 12-game win streak, they’ve scored at least five runs in 11 of their 14 wins. That included the last game, a 6-3 win over the Mariners, setting up for the series win.
The good times could come to a halt Thursday, though, as the M’s trot out ace Logan Gilbert, who has gone 3-0 on the year, with a 1.69 ERA and 0.79 WHIP.
Gilbert has done work on the Twins too, with a 2-0 mark in three career starts, holding that 1.69 ERA with a WHIP of 1.06.
Seattle hasn’t been that great offensively, though, sitting 25th in runs scored, while ranking Bottom 10 in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.
The Mariners have been feast-or-famine of late. In their last seven games, they’re 3-0 when posting five or more runs, while 0-4 when plating three or fewer.
They’ll face righty Pablo Lopez in this one, a guy who’s coming off wins in consecutive starts.
Last time out, he held Boston to five hits and a single earned run in six innings of work, fanning eight — the second-straight eight-strikeout game for him.
These two teams have crossed the total in four of the last five head-to-head matchups, but context matters here.
In Gilbert’s seven starts, the Mariners and their opponent have combined to go Under the seven-run total six times.
Assuming he shows up and those so-so M’s bats run into Lopez pitching his best ball of the young season, I like this series finale staying low.
Mariners vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Ryan Jeffers Over 0.5 hits
Logan Gilbert to win
Even in spot duty, Minnesota catcher Ryan Jeffers continued to swing a hot stick, picking up a pinch-hit double in Wednesday’s win over Seattle.
That’s now at least a hit in 14 of his last 15 games, lifting his average to a cool .303, while ranking inside the Top 25 in home runs and Top 15 in RBIs.
He also happens to be tied with Luis Castillo for the most experience against Gilbert,
Though it’s a small sample size, Jeffers does have two hits in six at-bats in his career against the righty. I like Jeffers to stay streaking Thursday.
Adding Gilbert to the SGP ups the juice to +900, which is worth a splash, considering he’s earned the decision in three of his last four outings.
In those wins, he pitched 13 innings, scattering just eight hits and giving up a single earned run.
Even the start where Gilbert didn’t factor into the decision, he gave up two runs on four hits in 6.1 innings of work against Arizona.
In his three career starts against Minnesota, he’s pitched a total of 16 innings, giving up 14 total hits and three earned runs — all Seattle wins. He’s worth a wager to walk away with a W.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Twins odds
Mariners vs Twins live odds
Mariners vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-198) | Minnesota -1.5 (+176)
- Moneyline: Seattle +114 | Minnesota -124
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-113) | Under 7 (+101)
Mariners vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota has won three of the last four head-to-head meetings with Seattle.
- The Mariners are 4-2 in their last six games as moneyline underdogs.
- Ten of the Mariners' last 12 road games vs AL Central teams have hit the Over.
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Mariners vs Twins trend
Minnesota is 14-7 this season as the moneyline favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Twins
Mariners vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RSNW, BSNO |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (3-0, 1.69 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Pablo Lopez (3-2, 4.30 ERA) |
Mariners vs Twins latest injuries
Mariners vs Twins weather
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