The downtrodden Toronto Blue Jays look to rebound in Game 2 of a two-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
After the Phillies won the opener against Toronto, 10-1, the MLB odds have them as a -159 moneyline favorite at Citizens Bank Park.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Blue Jays vs. Phillies predictions on Wednesday, May 8.
Blue Jays vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBI (+138 at PROLINE+)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Nothing seems to be slowing the Philadelphia Phillies down this season. They’ve won seven straight games and 11 of their last 12.
They’ve even been without All-Star shortstop Trea Turner for the last four games and it hasn’t mattered. Over those four games, Philadelphia is averaging 8.75 runs and Bryce Harper has been as hot as any player in the majors.
The 31-year-old has returned to his MVP form as of late with 10 RBI in his last three games, including four in Game 1 against the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s now second on the team with 28 RBI in 33 games and his nine home runs lead the team.
Harper is poised to continue to light up the scoreboard against Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt in Game 2. Bassitt has had a tough start to the season with a 5.45 ERA across 36 1/3 innings.
The 35-year-old has allowed 25 runs in seven starts, including six home runs. With Bassitt struggling, he’s not going to want to see Harper and his .534 SLG.
Bassitt predominantly uses his sinker (40.8% of the time), and Harper’s been mashing them so far this season. He’s batting .316 against sinkers with a .632 SLG and a run value of three.
Harper has to be licking his lips at the thought of how frequently he’ll see Bassitt’s sinker, it’s by far his most used pitch. The only other pitch he goes to more than 13% of the time is his cutter (17.7%).
That just so happens to be the only other pitch that Harper’s seeing consistently and hitting better than the sinker. The Phillies first baseman is slamming cutters to the tune of a .400 average and .700 SLG with a run value of two.
With Bassitt using any other pitch so infrequently, Harper is primed to take advantage of what he sees at the plate and continue his obnoxious streak of racking up RBI against Toronto.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 hits (+175 at PROLINE+)
At this point, there’s not a single Blue Jay batter you can feel confident about, especially against Aaron Nola. Nola’s off to a solid start to the season with a 3.32 ERA in seven starts.
He poses a difficult matchup for the vast majority of Toronto’s bats, especially their stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Nola’s go-to pitch is his knuckle curve (31.1%), a pitch Guerrero has had next to no success against. The Blue Jays slugger has rarely seen them at the plate in his career, and when he has, he hasn’t registered a hit.
Nola’s also got a four-seamer in his arsenal, another pitch that Guerrero hasn’t seen success with this season. He’s batting just .222 with a .222 SLG against four-seamers in 2024. Guerrero already went hitless in Game 1 against Philadelphia.
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Blue Jays vs Phillies odds
Blue Jays vs Phillies live odds
Blue Jays vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Toronto 1.5 | Philadelphia -1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +136 | Philadelphia -148
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Blue Jays vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- After dominating Game 1 against Toronto, Philadelphia opened as a -148 to -163 moneyline favorite and have come up to between -159 and -167 at most books.
- The Phillies have the best record in the MLB this season at 26-11, leading the NL East, while the Blue Jays are last in the AL East at 16-20.
- The Over/Under opened at 8 and has moved up to 8.5.
- Toronto is 16-20 betting the Over this season with Philadelphia not faring much better at 17-18-2.
Blue Jays vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Phillies
Blue Jays vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCSP |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (2-5, 5.45 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Aaron Nola (4-1, 3.32 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Phillies latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Phillies weather
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