The Colorado Buffaloes and Marquette Golden Eagles are set to meet in the March Madness bracket with a chance to go to the Sweet 16.
Marquette took care of business against Western Kentucky to get here, but only after it got a bit of a scare. The Eagles went to the locker room with a deficit but quickly stormed back in the second half to win by 19.
Colorado played in one of the tournament's best games so far when it came away with a victory against Florida to get here. That game featured 202 total points and was won by the Buffs via a last-second shot by KJ Simpson.
What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the March Madness odds and give it in our March Madness picks for Sunday, March 23.
Colorado vs Marquette best odds
Colorado vs Marquette picks and predictions
This matchup is a compelling one but unique, too. The Colorado Buffaloes have a short turnaround, but it's very similar to the one it had for Florida coming into this one.
The Marquette Golden Eagles have guards who want to manipulate middle ball screens and Colorado needs to craft a game plan to try to stop that. The interior battle is quite different, but I want to focus on the former.
Colorado enters this game with one of the worst pick-and-roll defenses in college basketball.
It ranks in the Bottom 7% of college basketball, has allowed .889 points per possession on such sets, and struggled to defend those sets against Florida. The Buffs allowed Walter Clayton to get hot — and I mean hot — when he dropped 33 points against them, 20 of which came off pick-and-rolls.
That means we're targeting Kam Jones on Sunday. He's one of the best pick-and-roll scorers in the country and will enter this game in the Top 10% of pick-and-roll scorers in college basketball, scoring 1.02 points per possession.
Jones has found his scoring stroke as of late. The absence of Tyler Kolek aided it, but he came into March as a highly assertive person who answered the bell when needed. Jones comes into this game off one of the best games of his career, scoring 28 points against Western Kentucky and over 60% of that coming via pick-and-roll sets.
Like I said previously, this follows a recent trend of what we've seen from Jones. He's gone Over this number in three of his last five games, but what's more important is the volume in those games.
In every single one of those matchups, Jones has shot at least 15 field goals. Some of that has been because of Kolek's absence, but it's mainly because of the matchup dictating it. If he can get that many shots up in this game, then it's hard to believe he won't go Over this total considering how great the matchup is.
I don't think Tyler Kolek is fully healthy, but I'm aiding in our favor here. Against Western Kentucky, he deferred a lot to Kam Jones. If he does that here, I'll feel great about this considering I projected this total to be 20.5.
My best bet: Kam Jones Over 17.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Colorado vs Marquette same-game parlay
Kam Jones Over 17.5 points
Marquette moneyline
Colorado's defensive issues against strong guard play should have been taken advantage of by Florida — and they nearly were. I'll take my chances here with a team with similar issues but is more talented. This could be another shootout and Marquette is well-equipped for those games.
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Colorado vs Marquette spread and Over/Under analysis
Marquette wins this game, but I'm not interested in laying points as my projections see a more significant edge on the moneyline. With that in mind, I have no pregame side and I'd only be interested in something in-game.
The Eagles have covered in four of the last five games and have been on a nice run heading into the postseason. The same can be said for Colorado, too. It won four of the last five games before heading into the tournament.
I like the Over quite a bit here and played a full unit on Over 147.5.
Each of these teams has multiple offensive advantages, and while they're mainly coming from jump shots, these teams have shot quite well through the last few weeks.
The total trends are uneven between the two teams but the Buffs will enter this game with three straight games going Over the total.
Colorado vs Marquette betting trend to know
Marquette has cashed the moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.20 units / 14% ROI)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Colorado vs Marquette game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indiana, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Colorado vs Marquette key injuries
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