Tonight will effectively decide the 1-seed in the Western Conference. If the Minnesota Timberwolves win, they will need to win just one of their final two games, both at home, to clinch home-court advantage through the Western Conference Finals. If the Denver Nuggets win, they would need to either win out or see Minnesota lose just one game to enjoy that same edge.
Stakes do not get much higher in the regular season, even as the spread grows past two buckets. That is a bit of a surprise, a thought to ponder in our free NBA picks as we dig into Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions, tip on Wednesday, April 10, at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions
My best bet
Naz Reid Over 2.5 made threes (-122 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
An overambitious ref may have done the Nuggets a disservice last night. Ejecting Naz Reid after only eight minutes with a Flagrant 2 foul for essentially boxing out a smaller player now means Reid should be the freshest player in the Timberwolves’ rotation tonight.
Naz Reid ejected for this play pic.twitter.com/xSYtiBHGNC
— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) April 10, 2024
Reid does not need to be fresh to cause problems. Ignore last night’s cameo, and since Reid’s role expanded with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined by a meniscus injury, the once-undrafted free agent has hit at least three 3s in nine of 15 games, nine of 14 if also excluding an injury-shortened appearance in mid-March.
Before Towns’ injury, Reid averaged 1.1 made 3s on 3.1 attempts. Since then — and again, ignoring last night’s eight minutes in which the 6-foot-9 center hit one of two attempts from deep — Reid has hit 3.2 threes on 7.3 attempts per game.
He has become Minnesota’s mismatch problem. Even Denver will struggle to limit Reid’s looks, despite his performances against the Nuggets thus far this season. In his one start against Denver this season, Reid went 0-for-5 from long range on March 29. The key number there should be the five, not the zero.
Reid has shot 44% from deep. Remove that oh-fer showing and that jumps to 46.2%. That oh-fer was an anomaly, not a foretelling worry.
If Reid takes only five 3s again, he may hit three of them. It's more likely his fresh legs lead to eight or nine attempts from deep.
As Anthony Edwards draws help defenders on the drive, pulling in Aaron Gordon or Michael Porter Jr. from their Reid responsibilities, he will be willing to pass it. Moving the ball has become an underappreciated part of Edwards’s game in the last month. Reid will be the beneficiary tonight.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Naz Reid Over 2.5 made threes
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists
Timberwolves +6
This same-game parlay has heavily-correlated NBA odds, but it is based on recent events. Edwards scored a career-high 51 points last night, but still handed out seven assists. He was consistently looking to make the right passes when he had 49 points in the closing minutes. In six of his last 12 games, Edwards has managed at least six assists.
In three of the last nine games that Reid played his usual minutes (Reid also left a game at Utah on March 18 after 17 minutes with the neck injury that then kept him from playing at Denver the next night), both Reid and Edwards have hit the Overs on these props.
That kind of offensive efficiency should keep Minnesota close in a must-win. The Timberwolves are 2-1 against the Nuggets this season, the one loss coming when Minnesota did not have an NBA-quality center available. Some stock should be put in that track record.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds
Timberwolves vs Nuggets live odds
Timberwolves vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +5.5 (-110) | Denver -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +195 | Denver -240
- Over/Under: Over 213.5 (-110) | Under 213.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with Denver favored by 5.5 early Tuesday evening and climbed to -6 by early Wednesday morning.
- Tonight’s total opened at 213.5 before last night’s tips and it began dropping by night’s end, presumably partly due to both teams struggling in what should have been overwhelming blowouts. It reached 212 by midday Wednesday and slipped to 211 during the lunch hour.
- The spread growing a touch while the total fell is a touch counterintuitive, simply given fewer total points should make it more difficult to establish a three-bucket lead.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets trend
Minnesota is 6-3 against the spread on the road since Towns was sidelined, tracing back to March 7. That includes going 3-3 outright as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets latest injuries
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