After dominating the last year's edition of this race —sweeping the Top 4 finishes — Hendrick Motor Sports sees its squad favored again heading into the DuraMAX Drydene 400.
As the rest of the field attempts to play catch-up, is there value in a heavy underdog?
Get the NASCAR betting low-down for this weekend's stop in Dover in our DuraMAX Drydene 400 picks and predictions, with the green flag dropping at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 1.
You can also get a complete odds breakdown in our DuraMAX Drydene 400 odds.
DuraMAX Drydene 400 best bets
Picks made on 4/27/22 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
DuraMAX Drydene 400 favorites
Kyle Larson (+450)
Just look at what he’s done at this track with Ganassi (three straight Top 3s), then see a runner-up last year too with Hendrick Motorsports on the Monster Mile. He also has 10 Top 10s in his last 12 starts there including, seven in the Top 5. On the season, Larson also has three Top 5s in the last four races.
William Byron (+900)
He has two straight fourth-place finishes at Dover and has led the most laps in four of the last six races on the season as well.
Chase Elliott (+900)
He’s scored four Top-5 finishes in his last six Dover starts. Also, the current Cup Series points leader has scored five Top-10 finishes in the last six weeks run on the year.
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DuraMAX Drydene 400 longshot picks
Kevin Harvick (+1,200)
Why not? Seven straight Top-6 finishes here including, two wins. He was fourth in both races in 2019, fourth and first respectively in 2020, and sixth a year ago.
Daniel Suarez (+5,000)
Trackhouse has been vastly improved in 2022. Suarez, finished ninth for them here last year. With two wins from his teammate this season, Dover is a place to where Suarez can score his first career win. He has six Top 11s in nine starts on the Monster Mile in Cup competition.
In Xfinity, he has five Top 10s in six starts including a win in 2016, and finished second in both his Truck Series starts. To say this track is one of his best is an understatement. That’s 17 career national touring divisions starts at Dover with 13 Top 11s, including 5 in the Top 3.
Cole Custer (+10,000)
A pair of Top 10s as a rookie, a 10th place run last season and a win in the Fall of 2019 in the Xfinity Series makes him a strong sleeper. Custer actually had five Top-8 results in six NXS starts on the Monster Mile to go along with a fifth-place finish in Trucks there in 2016 too.
DuraMAX Drydene 400 fades
Ryan Blaney (+1,200)
Zero Top 5s and just two Top 10s in 11 career Dover starts isn’t ideal. His last six Dover starts have seen him finish 12th or worse.
Brad Keselowski (+3,500)
No Top 5s in his last nine Dover starts to go along with only one in his last 13 puts him on this list.
Austin Dillon (+5,000)
The odds wouldn’t necessarily put him here, but Dillon has four Top 10s in the last five weeks on the season, including two Top-3 results in the last three. However, while this may look like a sexy pick at +5,000, Dillon was ninth in 2020 at Dover for just his third Top 10 on the Monster Mile. He’s never had a Top 5 there.
DuraMAX Drydene 400 matchup pick
Kevin Harvick (+100) vs. Martin Truex Jr. (-130)
Truex has a good record at Dover, but between being 19th last year and having just two Top 5s all season, I like Harvick —who has seven straight Top-6 finishes at Dover — and the plus-money in this matchup.
PICK: Harvick (+100)
DuraMAX Drydene 400 preview
Dover has been a place that rewards the best on the season. Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick combined to win 16 times in 2020 — two of those 16 came in the Dover races. Alex Bowman won four times last year, including Dover. It’s just a place that rewards speed. If you go back to 2016, we’ve had 10 straight races at Dover where someone led at least 100 laps.
However, in each of the last two races this season, the eventual race winner led just one lap - the final one. In fact, they didn’t even lead the full final lap. They only led on the final stretch.
We’ve actually had six races where the race winner didn’t even lead a lap in the first two stages run and another where they had led just one lap at the point of the second stage break. That’s a big part of the reason as to why we’ve had one race winner all year come from 12-1 or lower odds.
So, will we see another unpredictable race on Sunday? You really have a Hendrick Motorsports vs. Stewart-Haas Racing battle shaping up.
Hendrick Motorsports (stats above) went 1-2-3-4 last season and has all four drivers in the Top 7 in points this season. I think you start there with the favorites.
The reason for SHR? Well, somebody has to step up to the plate to challenge HMS.
Penske has just one win all year, with the No. 2 car having only won twice in the last two years - both on superspeedways. Joey Logano (two Dover Top 5s last 13 tries), has two wins in the last 77 races — they came in a football stadium (Busch Clash) and Bristol Dirt. His last points-paying race win not on dirt? Oct. 18, 2020.
Ryan Blaney (zero Top 5s in 11 Dover tries) has been the most consistent in finding Victory Lane, but he hasn’t won since the 2021 regular-season finale.
Joe Gibbs Racing may not fare much better. Denny Hamlin has one Top 10 all season, Christopher Bell has one Top 5, Martin Truex Jr. has two Top 5s all season, while Kyle Busch has just one Top 10 in his last seven Dover spring starts. In fact, he has one Top 15 in that span too.
That may open the door to SHR then. You can essentially eliminate Almirola (one Top 10 in his last 10 Dover starts) but factor in Cole Custer (stats above), Kevin Harvick (stats above) and Chase Briscoe (+2,000) as sleepers.
Trackhouse with Daniel Suarez (stats above) and Ross Chastian (two wins in 2022) are the only other main challengers.
DuraMAX Drydene 400 key stat
Three of the last five Dover winners have come from a starting spot of Row 7 or worse. However, the second-place starting spot has won half (four) of the last eight races there too.
DuraMAX Drydene 400 betting trend to watch
- Since the stage era started in 2017, the eventual race winner has finished in the Top 10 at the end of the two stages per race in all but one try (2019 Race 1). That was due to the doubleheader and pit strategy for the end of the first stage.
- Furthermore, 14 of the 16 stages run at Dover have seen the eventual race winner finish in the Top 5.
- The race winner finished in the Top 10 of all nine final stages, with a Top 5 finish in eight of the nine.
