GEICO 500: Talladega Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

What's better than saving 15%? Stinging the winner of Sunday's GEICO 500 at better than 10:1. 

The circuit takes over Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, as NASCAR Cup Series odds favorite William Byron also sits near the top of the GEICO 500 odds board, already looking for his fourth win of the season.

Join us for a full breakdown of Talladega's need-to-know info — from an odds breakdown, to track trends, and, of course, this week's expert NASCAR betting picks for April 21.

Odds to win 2024 GEICO 500

Driver
Ryan Blaney	+800	+1,000	+1,000
Kyle Busch	+900	+1,400	+1,600
Joey Logano	+900	+800	+900
Brad Keselowski	+1,000	+1,100	+1,000
William Byron	+1,200	+1,200	+1,200
Denny Hamlin	+1,200	+1,400	+1,200
Kyle Larson	+1,400	+1,800	+1,600
Chase Elliott	+1,400	+1,300	+1,300
Michael McDowell	+1,700	+2,000	+2,000
Bubba Wallace	+1,800	+1,700	+1,500
Martin Truex Jr.	+1,800	+2,200	+2,000
Christopher Bell	+2,000	+1,800	+1,600
Ross Chastain	+2,200	+2,000	+1,200
Ty Gibbs	+2,500	+3,000	+2,000
Todd Gilliland	+2,500	+3,500	+4,000
Alex Bowman	+2,500	+3,000	+2,200
Tyler Reddick	+2,800	+3,000	+2,500
Chris Buescher	+2,800	+2,500	+2,000
Erik Jones	+2,800	+3,500	+3,000
Austin Dillon	+2,800	+3,500	+3,500

Odds as of 4-21-2024.

GEICO 500 field

The first thing you'll notice about this week's board is the high-variance superspeedway distribution. While NASCAR odds have typically seen favorites priced shorter than +500, with more than a handful of contenders shorter than +1,000, that latter mark is where you'll find this week's odds leaders. 

With a higher variance on superspeedways, even the best drivers can be at the mercy of a tightly-packed field both on the odds board and the track itself. 

Topping the field at DraftKings is a three-way tie between William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Brad Keselowski:

• Byron's the hottest driver in NASCAR right now, running 1-7-1-3 in the last three races. He also won the Daytona 500 on a superspeedway to kick the season off.
  
  
• Blaney won last year's Cup Series Championship, and while he's racked up a slew of Top-5 finishes this season, he's still in search of his first win. 
  
  
• Keselowski's a superspeedway specialist, and though he hasn't won a points-paying race in three years, that win came in — you guessed it — the 2021 GEICO 500. He excels at Talladega in general, and this track is as good as any for him to break the slump.

In the high-variance nature of superspeedway, we're seeing fairly flat odds distribution, with far more of a linear cadence than we've seen with any NASCAR odds board this season. Only four drivers sit north of +10,000, so this is truly a race where anybody could upset a frenetic field. 

GEICO 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, 4-16-2024.

GEICO 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Brad Keselowski (+1,000)
You always go with Keselowski on a superspeedway race. Even though he’s finished 23rd or worse in three of his last four Talladega starts, Keselowski, a six-time Talladega race winner, was also fifth in the spring. Keselowski had the third-most superspeedway points last season and second-most laps led (121) on these tracks.

Ryan Blaney (+1,000)
The Team Penske driver has an astounding five Top-2 finishes in his last nine tries at Talladega including a pair of wins (2019, 2020, 2023) and three consecutive Top-2 results at that. On superspeedways last season, he finished eighth, seventh, second, ninth, 36th, and first. 

William Byron (+1,000)
He has six Top-12 finishes in his last eight starts at Talladega, including a runner-up finish in the spring of 2021 and last fall.  He won the Daytona 500 and was seventh in this very race last season.

Chase Elliott (+1,000)
He has two trips to victory lane in his last nine Talladega starts. Elliott’s pair of Talladega finishes in 2022 were seventh and first, respectively, while a year ago was 12th and seventh. He enters this weekend with three straight Top-5 finishes on the season too, including a victory last Sunday in Texas. 

GEICO 500 sleepers

Austin Cindric (+3,000)
Ninth and fifth in the fall race. 21st and 26th in the spring. However, these odds and being in the hunt coming to the white flag at Daytona this February gives me reason of optimism.

Chase Briscoe (+4,500)
10th in the Daytona 500. 10th, fourth, and 13th in his last three Talladega starts. He led the most laps in last August’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona, too. 

Todd Gilliland (+5,000)
He’s been quietly good here. Gilliland has finished seventh, 10th, and 12th in his last three Talladega starts.

GEICO 500 fades

Denny Hamlin (+1,100)
He can win at any given time on a superspeedway. Hamlin has seven Top-7 finishes in his last 11 Talladega tries, including a third-place run last fall. My concern is he’s struggled in this spring race, finishing 31st, 11th, 14th, 36th, fourth, 32nd, 18th, and 17th in his last eight tries. The fall race, he’s finished third, sixth, fourth, third, first, seventh, fifth, and third in that span. 

Joey Logano (+1,100)
Logano scored the second-most points and led the most laps on these tracks last year. He’s also a three-time Talladega winner (Oct. 2015, October 2016, April 2018). So why am I fading him? Six of his last seven Talladega finishes have also seen him finish 24th or worse too with just one Top-10 finish in his last eight here. That’s a reason to be wary. He was 30th and 24th last year.

Bubba Wallace (+1,500)
He won here in 2021. My only pause is the fact that his win in 2021 is his only finish better than 14th here in his 12 Cup tries. His NXS finishes were 31st, 20th, 13th and 13th respectively. In this Next Gen, his finishes are 17th, 16th, 28th and 23rd respectively. 

Kyle Busch (+1,500)
The defending winner. He’s finished third and first in the last two spring races here. However, those are also his only Top-5 finishes in his last 13 Talladega starts. Busch’s last 10 finishes in the Fall Talladega race have been 11th or worse including his last seven being 30th, 27th, 26th, 19th, 27th, 27th, 20th and 25th respectively. He was 32nd, 18th, third and first in the last four spring races too. 

Kyle Larson (+2,000)
He’s only 1-for-43 for Top 5s on superspeedways. In fact, his last eight finishes at Talladega are 39th, 40th, 40th, 37th, fourth, 18th, 33rd, and 15th respectively. Not a good week for him. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+2,200)
He’s had just three Top-5 finishes at Talladega since 2007. His last 14 finishes there are 40th, 35th, 23rd, 26th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 23rd, 31st, 12th fifth, 26th, 27th and 18th, respectively.  On top of that, out of 107 drafting track starts between Daytona, Talladega and the five races at Atlanta with the new configuration, Truex has no wins.

GEICO 500 prop pick

Erik Jones (+110), Daniel Suarez (+125) Top-10 finishes
A combo +372 if you parlay a Top-10 finish here. Jones (+3,000 outright) has been stellar at Talladega. He has six Top-10 finishes in his last eight starts, including being ninth, sixth, sixth, sixth, and 26th the last five tries. He was eighth in the Daytona 500 too. 

Suarez (+3,500 outright), has been equally as impressive on drafting tracks. His two Atlanta finishes in 2022 were fourth and sixth. He was runner-up in the July Atlanta race last year and won Atlanta this spring. At Talladega, Suarez has finished eighth, ninth, and 10th, respectively, in his last three tries. 

Pick: Erik Jones Top-10 finish (+110 at DraftKings), Daniel Suarez Top-10 finish (+125 at DraftKings)

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Talladega Superspeedway track analysis

This track is similar to Daytona and Atlanta now, which is why you’ll see similar trends here. In turn, it’s also why the usual suspects should be up front too. 

In saying that, don’t overthink it this week. For the playoff race in the fall, six non-playoff drivers have won the NASCAR Cup Series’ postseason race at Talladega. However, since the win-and-advance format was introduced to the sport in 2014, the playoff race has always been won by an existing playoff driver with the exception of 2021. They’re 9-for-10.

This is relevant to the spring race in the sense that in order to get to the playoffs, you likely have to win, and a spring winner would be a playoff driver this fall. 

Chevrolet has won three of the last four Talladega races and took three of the Top-4 finishing positions in the Daytona 500.  With the Next Gen, they’re 10-for-14 in regard to victories (5-for-6 in 2022, 3-for-6 in 2023, 2-for-2 in 2024).

Ford has won 12 of the last 18 Talladega races but only had two drivers finish in the Top 17 of the season-opening Daytona 500. 

By comparison, Toyota has only won three times in the last 29 Talladega races overall. Two of which were won by Denny Hamlin.

GEICO 500 trends

• Just eight times since 1995 has a driver earned their first or second career wins at Talladega. 
  
  
• The last five winners each started 19th, 19th, 16th, 17th, 10th. 13 of the previous 14 races were won by the Top 6 Rows. Only two pole winners (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2017, Denny Hamlin 2020) won in the last 38 Cup races at Talladega. 
  
  
• Those are the only two front-row starters to win since the playoff race of 2011 (25 races). Previously, five of the 13 races before were won by fron- row starters. On top of that, only one Daytona pole winner has won there since 2011 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016).

How to make GEICO 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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