Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are locked into a heated battle, both atop this week's Goodyear 400 odds and the season-long NASCAR Cup Series odds.
Both will be looking to add to previous Darlington success and put more distance between themselves and the rest of this year's Cup Series field. However, there are plenty of other contenders hoping to tilt the NASCAR odds back in their favor.
To help navigate today's race, read on for the best Goodyear 400 betting picks.
Odds to win 2024 Goodyear 400
| Driver |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 | +425 | +400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 | +450 | +450 |
| William Byron | +600 | +750 | +750 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +650 | +750 | +700 |
| Tyler Reddick | +800 | +800 | +650 |
| Brad Keselowski | +900 | +900 | +1,000 |
| Chris Buescher | +900 | +1,100 | +1,000 |
| Christopher Bell | +1,500 | +1,200 | +1,400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,500 | +2,200 | +2,000 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,800 | +2,200 | +1,600 |
| Kyle Busch | +2,000 | +2,200 | +2,000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2,200 | +2,200 | +2,000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2,800 | +1,800 | +2,500 |
| Joey Logano | +2,800 | +2,000 | +2,500 |
| Noah Gragson | +4,500 | +6,600 | +5,000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +5,500 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
| Alex Bowman | +5,500 | +4,000 | +5,000 |
| Erik Jones | +5,500 | +6,000 | +4,000 |
| Austin Cindric | +7,000 | +8,000 | +20,000 |
| Michael McDowell | +8,000 | +8,000 | +12,000 |
Odds as of May 12, 2024.
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Goodyear 400 field
We're seeing yet another heavily-polarized field distribution this week, such that this is more or less becoming the norm on intermediate and short tracks in 2024 NASCAR, after a couple seasons of relative parity in the new Next-Gen rides.
Just two drivers are available between +3,500 and +9,000, which in other years would have represented an anomaly, but this season is very on-brand.
Also on-brand is Kyle Larson topping the odds board, especially after winning last week's AdventHelath 400. The win boosts Larson to 467 points on the season, keeping him in first place overall. As the last man to win at Darlington, he also carries momentum on this track into the weekend.
Second choice Denny Hamlin is right on Larson's odds-board bumper, and has a whopping four Darlington wins to his credit — especially impressive when you consider that there's only been one race held here annually for the bulk of Hamlin's Cup Series career.
Next on the board, Martin Truex Jr.'s a two-time Darlington champ, who sits firmly in second in the Cup Series standings, despite still seeking his first win on the season. His Darlington finishes last season (18th and 31st) leave something to be desired, but he has plenty of experience and success on his track record here.
Rounding out the Top 5, we find defending Goodyear 400 champ William Byron, and Tyler Reddick (runner-up in last fall's Darlington race), both looking to steady the ship after some up-and-down results to begin the season.
Goodyear 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, May 7, 2024.
Goodyear 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+400)
He erased finishes of 36th, 12th, and 20th to win last year’s Southern 500. Larson also had three straight runner-ups prior to that three-race bad stretch and two third-place finishes in a three-race span even before that, too. He led 45 laps in 2016, 124 in 2017, 284 in 2018, 44 in 2019, 156 in the 2021 Southern 500, and 30 in 2022.
Denny Hamlin (+450)
Finished 12th in this race last year. However, he led 177 laps and swept both stages for the Southern 500, where an issue relegated him to 25th. Hamlin has three Top-5 finishes including a pair of Top 2s since 2021. He’s a four-time Darlington winner and also has four runner-ups there. Sixteen overall Top-10 finishes in 23 starts with 978 laps led.
Martin Truex Jr. (+600)
Recent finishes say to look elsewhere — Truex has finished 24th, 31st, 31st and 18t,h respectively. However, there's a story behind those finishes, though. He led 28 laps but was caught up in a crash in the 2022 spring race while running in the Top 5. He led 48 laps in the 2022 Southern 500 but his water pump failed while leading. Last spring, he led 145 laps but crashed while leading. He also led 248 laps in his dominating Mother’s Day performance in 2021. He backed that up by finishing fourth in that year’s Southern 500. Truex has led 914 laps in 23 starts on this track with two wins, four Top-5 finishes, and 10 Top 10s.
William Byron (+700)
The defending race winner has five Top-8 finishes in his last seven Darlington tries, including four of those five resulting in a Top 5. He was fourth in last year’s Southern 500, too.
Goodyear 400 sleepers
Chase Elliott (+1,400)
He’s 0-for-14 at Darlington but has three Top-8 finishes in his last four including being third and eighth, respectively, a year ago. With Hendrick Motorsports winning both races last season from two different drivers, Elliott could be next up...
Brad Keselowski (+1,800)
Keselowski has four Top-7 finishes in his last five tries including results of fourth and sixth a year ago.
Chris Buescher (+2,500)
A great driver to manage tires. Buescher has four Top-10 finishes in his last six Darlington tries including a third-place finish last September.
Bubba Wallace (+2,800)
He’s vastly improved at Darlington. Wallace went from no Top-15 finishes in eight starts to being ninth, fifth, and seventh, respectively, in his last three.
Goodyear 400 fades
Christopher Bell (+900)
He’s had three Top-3 starting spots in the last four Darlington tries. Bell has led 43 combined laps and has a best finish of fifth in this span. Last year, he finished 14th and 23rd, respectively.
Ross Chastain (+1,300)
He leads a lot of laps at Darlington but also has a lot of crashes. 26 laps led but a crash (30th place) in 2022. 20th in the 2022 Southern 500, and 93 laps led and a crash while battling for the win, and last spring again as well (29th place). That’s why despite being fifth in last year’s Southern 500, I’d fade.
Joey Logano (+2,200)
Great in 2022, with finishes of first and fourth, respectively. Last year? 18th and 12th with no laps led.
Ryan Blaney (+2,200)
Not a strong suit for him. Just two Top-10 finishes in 13 tries. While he was ninth in both races a year ago, I’d fade him.
Goodyear 400 prop pick
Tyler Reddick Top-3 Finish (+200)
This track was made for Reddick (+750 to win outright), running the high line right up against the wall. Reddick has three Top-3 finishes in his last four tries, including leading 90 laps in last year’s Southern 500 and finishing runner-up.
Pick: Reddick Top-3 finish (+200 at DraftKings)
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Popular motor sports futures odds
Darlington Raceway track analysis
Darlington is an older surface where you have to tip-toe around the track rather than go all out every lap. While I get these types of races aren’t for everybody, this is what makes racing fun.
There’s a reason why veterans win this race. Five of the last nine were won by drivers in their 40s. Last year witnessed William Byron and Kyle Larson win. While they’re both on the younger end of the scale, Larson is in his 30s and has been racing for a decade in Cup. Byron is already in his sixth season.
Cautions are typically limited and teams have to try out different strategies which is why managing tire wear is crucial. This isn’t the typical new-school race where drivers are all bunched up in the end and can just plow over cars to get by. It’s going to be spread out and technical. Being patient and delicate around the track because the harder you push, the slower you go.
That sets up varying strategies on when to pit. Fresh tires can gain a ton of ground and speed on those going around the track on old sets of Goodyears. However, eventually, the new tires fade and those on old tires will pit for new and gain the advantage.
Whoever can work this game the best usually wins, and usually, it’s a veteran who manages his tires over the run to limit the fall-off.
Goodyear 400 trends
- Four of the last six Darlington race winners started in the Top 5. Just twice in the prior 17 had that happened. Just twice since the 1997 Southern 500 did the pole winner win here (39 races). For the spring race, track position with being 100 miles shorter has been key. The starting spots for the spring race 400-mile race have been sixth, fourth, first, and fourth, respectively.
- Every race winner at Darlington during the stage era has scored stage points. What’s odd is, the race winner at Darlington has never won a stage either.
- Chevrolet has won three consecutive Darlington races. These are their only wins at the track since 2015. Ford last won in the 2022 spring race. Toyota swept the pair of 2021 races.
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Previous Goodyear 400 winners
The list of active former Goodyear 400 champs is relatively short, given that the race was discontinued for 15 years through 2019. Denny Hamlin's the top format champ available, sitting second on the odds board.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | William Byron |
| 2022 | Joey Logano |
| 2021 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2020b | Denny Hamlin |
| 2020a | Kevin Harvick |
| 2005-2019 | Race discontinued during this time |
How to make Goodyear 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
