Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Walks Aplenty for Manaea vs Yankees

Prop bet #1: De La Cruz Over 0.5 RBI (+180)

I think it’s fair to say that Elly De La Cruz is a streaky hitter. Luckily, for the Cincinnati Reds, their phenom shortstop is on a hot streak as they continue their series with the rival Pittsburgh Pirates.

This has been a back-and-forth matchup with neither team winning consecutive games through five meetings this season with the Buccos dealing the latest blow, winning Tuesday night’s matchup 9-5. 

So, De La Cruz and the Reds, you’re up. The 22-year-old enters this game hitting .253 with a .814 OPS, 14 home runs, and 35 runs batted in. That includes a monster bomb he hit in the opener of this series.

But like I said, De La Cruz is locked in. He has collected four consecutive multi-hit games, which include three doubles and two dingers. That’s good or a .526 average and a 1.550 OPS and he gets a good matchup against the Pirates’ Luis Oritz.

The 25-year-old right-hander is in his second full big-league season and has made 21 appearances this season, all as a reliever. He is pitching to a 4.17 expected ERA with a below-average 17.% strikeout rate. 

Now, thanks to some injuries the Pirates have stretched him out a bit this month but after some good innings against the Blue Jays and Twins, Oritz has been roughed up his last couple of times out surrendering seven runs on 17 hits over nine innings against the Rockies and Rays.

Additionally, five innings looks like the best-case scenario for Ortiz here, which means plenty of work for a Pittsburgh bullpen that has the third-worst ERA in baseball.

I like Elly to drive in another run tonight and, at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have it listed as a five-star play.

Elly De La Cruz prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+180 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Manaea Over 2.5 walks (+150)

It’s called the Subway Series but the mode of transportation, at least for hitters, will be walking as the New York Yankees and New York Mets conclude this mini, two-game set.

The Mets struck first with a 9-7 win after jumping all over Gerrit Cole. Game 2 will feature two of the more wild starters in terms of walks as Luis Gil toes the rubber against Sean Manaea. Today, I want to focus on the Mets’ lefty.

Manaea is having a mediocre year at best, pitching to a 4.22 expected ERA while surrendering a .250 opponent expected batting average. And while he is striking out a solid 24.1% of batters faced, he can lose his command at times.

Manaea has a 9.6% walk rate, which ranks in the 31st percentile among MLB pitchers. That’s not a recipe for success against this daunting lineup that loves to work counts and has no problem taking free passes and handing the bat to the next guy in line.

It should come as no surprise that a team that features both Aaron Judge and Juan Soto leads MLB in walks. They are particularly tough against left-handed pitchers, leading the majors with an 11.3% walk rate.

Manaea’s walk prop is sitting at a high 2.5 but faces an average of 21.6 batters per start this season, and current Yankees batters have a 10.5% career walk rate. That works out to about 2.3 walks. At this price, I like taking a shot on the Over. Plus, it’s a number he’s gone Over in five of his last 12 starts.

Sean Manaea prop: Over 2.5 walks (+150 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Nelson Under 3.5 Ks (+124)

Royce Lewis' return has injected some much-needed life into this Minnesota Twins lineup. The Twins have been one of the best offenses in baseball this month and will be a problem for Arizona Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson tonight.

Minnesota ranks third in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ in June and has been much more selective at the dish, significantly cutting down strikeouts. The Twins have the second-lowest K-rate in June, striking out just 17.4% of the time.

It could be a short outing for Nelson. He is pitching to a 4.87 expected ERA and giving up a .289 expected batting average to opponents, both in the Bottom 17% of the league or worse.

Nelson also has one of the lowest K-rates, striking out just 15.1% of batters faced. His strikeouts prop for this matchup is on the board at a low 3.5, but at this price, and the Under is worth a look. 

Not only are we getting solid plus money here, but he’s landed below this number in eight of his 13 starts this season, including four of the last five overall. Mix in a matchup with what is currently a tough Twins lineup and getting to that fourth K could be a tall task tonight.

Ryne Nelson prop: Under 3.5 strikeouts (+124 at FanDuel)