The Atlanta Braves are looking for a series sweep over the Houston Astros when they meet for Game 3 of their inter-league series this afternoon.
Lefty Max Fried takes the hill for the Braves this afternoon, with righty J.P. France on the mound for the Astros.
Can Houston pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down in my Braves vs. Astros predictions and provide my MLB picks for this April 17 showdown.
Braves vs Astros prediction
My best bet
J.P. France Under 15.5 outs (-115 at Caesars)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Houston Astros righty J.P. France hasn’t found his second season in the majors to be as easy as he made it look at times during his rookie season.
His pitches lack the same movement, and batters are pounding his four-seamer for a .404 wOBA and 34.8% hard hit rate. That’s less than ideal when taking the bump against the robust Atlanta Braves.
France hasn’t pitched poorly, but his command issues came to a head at his last start against Texas. He struggled to get outs with his four-seamer, walked four, and left the game after allowing eight earned runs through four innings.
Atlanta isn’t an offense a pitcher with command issues wants to face. The Braves boast a low walk rate and above-average strikeout rate: their MLB-best .391 wOBA and 142 wRC+ against righties fuel their 6.47 runs per game.
Atlanta's lineup is as good as there is in baseball. Marcell Ozuna boasts an 81.3% hard-hit rate against the four-seam fastball, while Matt Olson (65%) and Austin Riley (50%) are also tagging right-handed four-seamers and every other pitch offered.
France has been behind in the count far too often this season and has paid for that dearly . In a game Houston needs to avoid a sweep, the leash on France will be short.
Braves vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
J.P. France Under 15.5 outs
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 hits
Jose Abreu Under 0.5 hits
Houston OF Kyle Tucker has been phenomenal this season. He has a career 134 wRC+ against southpaws and a decent, small-sample-size history against Fried. Tucker has a hit in three of his past five, and he’s been Houston’s leader while trending in the opposite direction of teammate Jose Abreu.
Abreu has struggled to find his way thus far, going 4-for-49 this season with the lowest hard-hit rate in his career. He’s generally whiffing at everything, but his 40% whiff rate against the curveball is concerning as Fried has one of the best benders in baseball.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Astros odds
Braves vs Astros live odds
Braves vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (-105) | Houston +1.5 (-125)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -145 | Houston +122
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-120) | Under 9.0 (+100)
Braves vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on the Braves, with markets reporting odds from -138 to -150, while Astros odds range from +118 to +125.
- The 9.5 opener was hammered, with the U.S. markets reporting 9.0 runs across the industry with odds on Over (-110 to -120) and Under odds of -110 to even money (+100).
Braves vs Astros trend
The Astros have hit the game total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Astros
Braves vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSE, SCHN |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (1-0, 8.74 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | J.P. France (0-2, 8.22 ERA) |
Braves vs Astros latest injuries
Braves vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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