The Seattle Mariners took the series opener against the Atlanta Braves last night in a 2-1 victory as home dogs, with Mitch Garver walking it off in the ninth with a two-run jack.
Tonight will feature Atlanta’s Reynaldo Lopez on the bump, as he looks to even the series at T-Mobile Field. Find out where my best bets lie in our Braves vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 30.
Braves vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Reynaldo Lopez Under 1.5 earned runs (+125 at Betway)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Atlanta Braves right-hander Reynaldo Lopez has given up just two earned runs over his first four starts this year. He’s allowed just 14 hits while also striking out about a batter per frame and is projected for just 87 pitches today, per THE BAT.
With books struggling to price his earned runs vs. a weak Seattle Mariners offense, there is value in Lopez's Under earned runs. Some books have Lopez’s earned runs listed at 1.5, which is giving bettors a solid plus-money play on the Under at +120 or better.
Seattle enters tonight as one of the worst 10 teams in both wOBA and wRC+. The M's have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last nine games and are still without J.P. Crawford, who is on the 10-day IL.
The projections on Lopez tonight are Under 2.0 earned runs allowed. Although the Under 2.5 ERs at -160 might show the best +EV, the plus money play of Under 1.5 ERs at +125 is my preferred wager.
Lopez has been one of the best surprises this season, and the recent success isn’t just an outlier but more of what’s to come from the 30-year-old Atlanta starter.
Braves vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 earned runs
Luis Castillo Under 2.5 earned runs
Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 hits allowed
Luis Castillo is projected for 2.20 earned runs, while Lopez is expected to give us 1.96. Both teams have been paying Under bettors well with a 3-17 O/U mark across the last 10 games.
Under 4.5 hits allowed is a great prop to add here as all other books are at 3.5, and Lopez projects for 3.82. Both bullpens are also in great shape after last night's pitching duel.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mariners odds
Braves vs Mariners live odds
Braves vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+135) | Seattle +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -130 | Seattle +110
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
Braves vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite being one of the heaviest taxed teams on the moneyline, the Braves are still +$533 on the season, making them one of the most undervalued teams on the ML.
- At 7-21-1 O/U on the season, the Mariners have been the most profitable Under team in baseball so far.
- Both teams enter tonight with identical 7-3 SU records over their last 10 games.
Braves vs Mariners trend
The Mariners have hit the team total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mariners
Braves vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, RSNW |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (2-0, 0.50 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Luis Castillo (1-4, 4.40 ERA) |
Braves vs Mariners latest injuries
Braves vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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