DrGame

I don’t like the play

@HockeyNight11

Yeah, I wouldn’t rush to judge the offense just yet. Remember, this was Julian Sayin’s first career start and it came against Texas, not exactly a cupcake opener. Ryan Day even admitted they played it safe with him:

“We probably could have opened it up later in the game, but his first start, we didn’t want to do that to him.” – Ryan Day

That’s why the game plan looked more conservative than what we’re used to. Brian Hartline called what Day described as an “unselfish game,” leaning on the defense and not asking Sayin to take unnecessary risks.

So yeah, the numbers aren’t flashy compared to last year, but given the circumstances, it was about keeping the kid comfortable, protecting the ball, and getting out with a win. I’d expect the playbook to open up a lot more as conference play begins. Ohio State has a tendency to start off slow. 

I was looking at the Houston TT over. Buccaneers secondary is blah! But this under has me second guessing myself. 

Added play

10:30 Minnesota @ Cal over 41

Adding…

Smaller and maybe forcing some early afternoon action:

12:00 Buffalo -6.5 FQ @ Kent 

12:00 Memphis @ Troy Over 51

later I’ll post a 10:30pm Minnesota @ Cal write up 

Let’s see how today goes!! 

I hear you. Northwestern program is struggling. But I just don’t see it as “All In” type play laying 28 on the road at noon. Ducks win big but Cats’ D and home grit keep it under four TDs (project 38-13). Oregon’s road adjustment + NW backdoor potential seals it. Total? Lean under 49.5 if rain stays in forecast.

 I’m staying off the game but NW almost made my card. Just better plays to focus on.

Pick Recap so far…

Thursday 

NC State TT over 30.5 

Friday

7:30 Colorado @ Houston -4

Houston TT over 23.5 (-130)

Saturday

3:30 Georgia -3.5 @ Tennessee (TOP PLAY)

7:30 ECU -7 @ Coastal Carolina 

8:00 Duke ML @ Tulane  

8:30pm Akron @ UAB -11

more to come…..

Duke vs Tulane

This game’s got drama! Duke’s QB Mensah facing his former team after starting for Tulane last year, and both squads looking to make a statement.

Team Snapshots
Duke’s coming off a 45-19 loss to Illinois where they outgained their opponent (438-419, 6.95-5.74 YPP) but got crushed by a -5 turnover margin—all fumbles—leading to 28 points off giveaways. They’re dead last in FBS turnover margin (-6) and lost fumbles (5), compared to just six fumbles all of 2024. Tulane’s 2-0, with wins over Northwestern (convincing) and South Alabama (33-31 nail-biter where they were outgained 6.48-5.64 YPP but survived on a late 2-point stop). Tulane’s +6 turnover margin (#2 FBS) has been their lifeline.

Duke Offense vs Tulane Defense
Duke’s offense has shown pop, especially through the air, with a 49% success rate (85th percentile vs Illinois). The run game’s been average (82 rush yards last game), and the O got to stop coughing up the ball—five lost fumbles is a nightmare. Still, they’re efficient when clean, with no major red flags outside the turnover bug.
QB spotlight: Darian Mensah is the guy to watch. He’s been electric, 73.5% completion (50/68), 723 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT through two games. Against Illinois, he shredded for 389 yards and 3 TDs. Why’s this huge? Mensah started for Tulane last year, giving him intimate knowledge of their defensive schemes. That experience edge is massive in a road spot like this. His arm talent and poise should exploit a Tulane secondary that allowed 231 pass yards to South Alabama and struggles with passing success rate allowed (mid-pack nationally). WR Andrel Anthony (5 catches, 58 yards, 2 TDs last game) gives Mensah a go-to target. Tulane’s D can disrupt (7-1 TO margin), but their front seven isn’t dominant enough to rattle Duke’s O-line consistently. If Duke cuts the fumbles, Mensah’s revenge tour could light up Yulman.

Tulane Offense vs Duke Defense
Tulane’s attack leans on balance but sputters through the air (5.4 YPA, only 2 passing TDs total, no receiver over 75 yards). They ran for 241 yards vs South Alabama but got outgained overall and nearly choked away a lead. Their +6 TO margin is unsustainable, turnover gods won’t keep gifting them.
QB focus: Retzlaff’s been solid (13/24, 125 yards, 1 TD last game), with his legs being the real weapon, dangerous scrambler who stresses defenses. But his passing lacks juice, and he’ll face a Duke front seven that’s legit (14 TFL vs Illinois, 21st in net points per drive allowed, 17th in passing success rate allowed). Retzlaff’s experience is decent, but he’s no match for Mensah’s familiarity with this matchup. Tulane’s RB depth (Mobley, 82 yards last game) is a plus, but Duke’s D-line, led by Anthony (2.5 sacks), should contain the run better than South Alabama or Northwestern did. Duke’s secondary has holes, but Tulane’s air game hasn’t shown it can capitalize. Expect Retzlaff to be forced into a mistake or two under pressure.

Trends, Intangibles, and the Edge
Turnovers scream regression, Duke’s -6 margin is an outlier, while Tulane’s +6 won’t hold forever.

Intangibles: Tulane’s home crowd (10-4 at home last two years) brings noise, but Duke’s used to tough road spots (think 2024 ACC battles). Rain could favor the team that controls the trenches and ball, Duke’s O-line and D-line have the edge in experience. The Mensah revenge factor looms large; his insider knowledge and motivation tilt the scales. QB play and experience are my focus, and Mensah’s efficiency plus Tulane familiarity outshine Retzlaff’s dual-threat upside.

The Pick
Duke ML! This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Blue Devils, call it 27-23 Duke, with Mensah outdueling Retzlaff and the turnover margin evening out.

Pick Recap so far…

Thursday 

NC State TT over 30.5 

Friday

7:30 Colorado @ Houston -4

Houston TT over 23.5 (-130)

Saturday

3:30 Georgia -3.5 @ Tennessee

7:30 ECU -7 @ Coastal Carolina 

8:00 Duke ML @ Tulane  

8:30pm Akron @ UAB -11

more to come…..

This is the conference opener for both, and while it’s their first regular-season meeting, the stakes feel high with Colorado trying to rebound from a shaky start and Houston looking to keep their defensive dominance rolling.

Team Snapshots

Colorado split their home openers: A 27-20 loss to Georgia Tech that was uglier than the score (outgained badly, allowed 320 rush yards), and a 31-7 win over Delaware that needed a late spark, they were only +2 yards overall against a FCS squad with a backup QB. Buffs are adjusting post-Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, with defensive woes (5 sacks allowed vs Delaware, 300+ pass yards given up). Houston’s 2-0, dominating Stephen F. Austin and Rice by a combined 62-9, with elite D metrics (3.00 YPP allowed, #3 FBS). Offense is efficient, but competition’s been soft—step-up time.

Colorado Offense vs Houston Defense

Buffs have flashed potential but lack consistency, especially up front (gave up 5 sacks last week, porous run D themselves but offense averaged decent YPG). They’re post-Shedeur era, still finding rhythm without Hunter’s explosiveness.

QB spotlight: Massive uncertainty here, could be any of three guys starting, with Ryan Staub sparking the Delaware win (third-stringer who threw for decent yards). Experience? Thin. Staub’s a transfer with limited starts, and the room’s green overall (#72 on experience charts). They’ll face a “nasty” Houston D that’s allowed just 9 total points, 51 pass yards vs Rice, and stifles plays (low YPP). Cougars’ front seven disrupts, and their secondary’s locked down lesser foes. Colorado’s O is still adjusting,expect struggles on the road, especially if QB carousel leads to mistakes.

Houston’s D experience shines, veteran unit (#33 on exp chart) that’s well ahead of Colorado’s rebuilding offense. If Buffs can’t protect or establish the run, this gets ugly.

Houston Offense vs Colorado Defense

Cougars are balanced and efficient, outgaining foes handily (e.g., 35-9 vs Rice with low pass yards allowed, but their O put up points). Run game’s solid, passing crisp against cupcakes.

QB focus: Connor Weigman is the standout, 65% completion, 4-0 TD/INT ratio early, with SEC pedigree (Texas A&M transfer). Experience edge? Huge. Weigman’s started big games, brings poise and accuracy. He’s efficient without turnovers, and with a veteran O-line, he exploits Colorado’s leaky D (320 rush yards to GT, 300+ pass to Delaware, 5+ YPC allowed). Buffs’ secondary is vulnerable, and their pass rush non-existent, perfect for Weigman to dice them up. Team total at 24? Smash the over; Houston’s clears it easily, and Colorado’s D ranks low in points allowed (27 PPG).

Colorado’s D lacks experience (#72 exp), getting gashed in trenches. Houston’s vets control this matchup.

Trends, Intangibles, and the Vibe

Intangibles: Houston’s crowd (first Big 12 home game) brings energy; Colorado’s first road test post-stars could expose youth. Short week, but Houston’s D prep edges out. QB/experience tilt: Weigman’s polish > Colorado’s uncertainty, battle-tested vs. unproven.

The Pick

I’m pounding Houston -4 with high confidence, this is a mismatch where Weigman’s experience and Houston’s elite D overwhelm Colorado’s QB mess and leaky lines (project 28-17 Cougars). Houston TT 24 Over. Grab it! they’ll feast at home. Buffs keep it close early, but talent/experience gap shows.

Reviewing this Friday card right now! I have a couple more Saturday plays to submit soon.

Continued….4000 character limit!

Wake Forest Offense vs NC State Defense

Deacs lean on the run (Claiborne: 193 yards, 16.3 YPC vs. WCU), but air game’s meh (5.4 YPA). They’ve scored 26 PPG but against weaklings, turnovers and inefficiency could bite against a Pack D that’s vulnerable but opportunistic (1 INT, 14 TFL vs. UVA).
QB spotlight: Robby Ashford (transfer from South Carolina/Auburn/Oregon) brings mobility (21 carries early, 227 rush yards, 2 TDs last year), but passing’s inconsistent (59.1% comp, 227 yards, 1 TD/1 INT vs. WCU). Experience? Ashford’s started nine at Auburn (2022), but he’s bounced around four schools without stability—turnover-prone (PFF notes high turnover-worthy plays). Bailey’s poise and dual-threat edge him out; NC State’s front seven (21st in net points per drive allowed) should contain Ashford’s legs better than South Alabama did. Claiborne’s a threat, but Pack’s run D (despite UVA) has blue-chip talent to stuff him. Wake’s red zone O ranks 131st (40% scoring), they’ll struggle converting.

Trends, Intangibles, and the Rivalry Angle
This is the ACC’s longest continuous rivalry (second-longest in FBS), with NC State leading 69-43-6 all-time. But recent? Split 5-5 last 10, Wake winning five of eight (including 34-30 last year as 4.5 dogs). Home team owns it lately, Wake 12-2 ATS at home in series, and road faves like NC State are 0-6 ATS last six as 5+ dogs. Total’s hit under in last five head-to-heads, but NC State’s cashed over in seven of nine ACC games.

Intangibles: Short week favors the more experienced Pack (Bailey’s leadership vs. Ashford’s journeyman vibe). New Wake coach Jake Dickert’s 2-0, but untested; Doeren’s battle-hardened. Rivalry passion amps it, but NC State’s talent edge shines.

The Pick: NC State TT over 30.5
I lean NC State -7 if you want a side, this is a bounce-back road spot where Bailey’s dual-threat magic and experience pull away. But that team total 30.5 Over is the real gem, NC State’s cleared it twice already, and Wake’s D hasn’t seen this offense. Rivalry keeps it close early, but Pack’s superior QB and depth cover the TT Over

NC State (2-0) head to Winston-Salem for the 119th edition of this historic ACC rivalry against the Wake Forest (2-0). Both teams are undefeated, but NC State’s wins came against solid foes like East Carolina and a gritty 35-31 battle with Virginia, while Wake’s been feasting on cupcakes (10-9 squeaker over Kennesaw State and a 42-10 rout of FCS Western Carolina). The line’s at NC State -7.5, with the game total at 53.5, implying a 30.5-ish team total for the Pack, which screams value.

Team Overviews

NC State opened eyes with their Week 2 comeback against UVA, trailing 21-7 in the third before rallying behind balanced play. They’re averaging 31.5 PPG, but the defense allowed 463.5 YPG and got gashed on the ground (150 rush yards, 3 TDs to J’Mari Taylor). Wake Forest’s 2-0, but their opener was ugly, barely escaping Kennesaw (a team that got smoked 56-0 by Indiana next week), and the WCU win doesn’t move the needle much. Deacs are stout defensively (9.5 PPG allowed), but offensively, they’re untested against real competition. Expect a track meet if NC State’s O clicks.

NC State Offense vs Wake Forest Defense

The Wolfpack’s attack is humming, with a potent ground game (160.5 YPG) led by RB Hollywood Smothers (216 yards, 3 TDs, ACC-leading 39 carries). They’ve found balance, scoring 35 last week despite defensive lapses. The O-line’s held up, protecting the passer and opening lanes.

QB focus: CJ Bailey’s been a revelation in his sophomore leap, 70.2% completion (518 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), plus 65 rushing yards and 3 scores. As the youngest captain in coach Dave Doeren’s 13 years, Bailey’s command is elite: “He speaks with his chest… the temperature rises,” per WR Noah Rogers. Experience? Bailey started nine games as a frosh last year (65% comp, 2,413 yards, 17 TDs), building poise in big spots. Wake’s D is solid (4.04 YPP allowed to Kennesaw), but they’ve faced no dual-threat like Bailey. His mobility exploits their secondary, and with weapons like Wesley Grimes (253 rec yards) and TE Justin Joly, NC State should hit 30+ if they control the tempo. Team total at 30.5? That’s a soft number!

Wake’s pass rush (sacks in both wins) could pressure, but Bailey’s escapability and 70% clip neutralize that. Experience tilts heavy to NC State here, Bailey’s a program-changer vs. Wake’s unproven secondary.

Georgia Bulldogs (2–0)

Georgia hasn’t been tested yet, rolling over Marshall and Austin Peay. The Bulldogs are breaking in new QB Gunner Stockton, who has quietly been efficient (69% completions, 0 INTs) and adds a dual-threat element with 2 rushing TDs. His lack of SEC experience is a question mark, but his poise and decision-making so far check the right boxes.

Georgia’s OL hasn’t dominated as expected, but they’ve kept Stockton clean (0 sacks in 68 pass attempts). The WR/TE group is deeper than recent years, giving Stockton options against a Tennessee secondary missing its top two CBs. The run game is still RB-by-committee, but the depth means fresh legs all game.

Defensively, Georgia is what they always are: fast, deep, and elite up front. Allowing just 62 YPG on the ground (#15 FBS), they’ll force Tennessee into passing downs.

Tennessee Volunteers (2–0)

Tennessee’s QB Joey Aguilar has looked sharp early (5 TDs, 0 INTs), but this is a massive step up in class. At App State he flashed big-play ability, but his 24 career INTs in the Sun Belt hint at what could happen against SEC athletes. The Vols’ new WR group has been productive versus overmatched defenses, but asking them to separate against Georgia corners is a different animal.

The Vols’ run game is strong even without Dylan Sampson, but Georgia’s front 7 is built to take that away. If Aguilar is forced into obvious passing situations, Georgia’s disguised coverages and blitz packages could bait him into mistakes.

On defense, the Vols’ pass rush has teeth (8 sacks in 2 games), but without their two best CBs they are extremely vulnerable on the back end. Georgia has the perfect QB style to attack this,  Stockton’s mobility can buy time, and his accuracy has been clean enough to take advantage of blown coverages.

Key Factors

• QB Play: Stockton vs Aguilar is the deciding factor. Stockton hasn’t been flashy, but he’s turnover-free and supported by elite weapons. Aguilar is talented but turnover-prone historically, facing his biggest career test.
• Experience: Georgia has the continuity edge in both trenches and defensive depth. Tennessee’s secondary attrition is massive here.
• Trends: Georgia has won 8 straight in the rivalry, covering 6 straight ATS. Until Tennessee proves otherwise, this matchup tilts red and black.

Prediction

Tennessee’s offense will hit a few chunk plays, but Aguilar hasn’t faced this speed before, and his decision-making under pressure is a real concern. Stockton won’t need to be a hero, just stay mistake-free and take what the defense gives.

Pick: Georgia -3.5
Georgia’s experience, QB steadiness, and defensive depth outweigh Tennessee’s home field and early-season hype.

East Carolina -7 at Coastal Carolina

ECU (1-1) heads to Conway, SC, to face Coastal (1-1). Both teams have flashed potential but have clear weaknesses, ECU in execution late, Coastal on offense.

Injuries

• ECU: none major.
• Coastal: TE Caden Berrong (torn ACL) out for season.

Box Score Reviews

East Carolina

• Week 1: NC State 24, ECU 17
  The Pirates nearly pulled the upset, falling after a failed 4th-and-1 in the final minute. They outgained NC State 362-347 and played tough defense (3 sacks, 1 INT). QB Katin Houser (22-35, 227 yds, 1 TD + rush TD) was efficient but drives stalled (4-13 3rd downs). RB London Montgomery added 78 rush yds. Costly penalties (8 for 75) hurt. Showed competitiveness but lacked finishing.
• Week 2: ECU 56, Campbell 3
  A get-right game vs FCS. The Pirates piled up 500+ yds. Houser (14-19, 215 yds, 2 TD) stayed sharp while the ground game exploded for 285 yds and 5 TDs (Montgomery, Gunn Jr., Jenkins, Lacy). The defense suffocated (142 yds allowed, 3 INTs, 7 TFL). ECU scored on first five possessions, up 35-3 at half. Pure dominance, though against weak competition.

Coastal Carolina

• Week 1: Virginia 48, Coastal 7
  A disaster opener. Outgained 454-254 and never found rhythm. QB MJ Morris (12-24, 112 yds, 2 INT) was ineffective, and the run game managed 142 yds. 1-14 on 3rd downs doomed them. Defense allowed balance (264 pass, 190 rush). Only TD came on non-offense. Major QB/efficiency concerns exposed.
• Week 2: Coastal 13, Charleston Southern 0
  Better, but still ugly. Coastal posted a shutout behind 5 sacks and 2 INTs. QB play stayed shaky, Morris (10-18, 156 yds, 1 INT) got benched, backup Tad Hudson sparked the lone TD run late. Ground game went for 163 yds. Three Coastal turnovers kept it sloppy, but defense held CSU to 135 yds. The win hinted Hudson might be the answer.

Summary & Prediction

ECU has an efficient QB, balanced offense, and elite early run defense (55 ypg allowed, 11th FBS). Coastal’s offense (10 ppg) is broken, though the defense has shown life. Unless Hudson transforms things, ECU should control the line of scrimmage and force mistakes. Expect the Pirates to grind out a road win, pulling away late.

Pick: ECU 34, Coastal 24 (ECU covers -7)

Saturday 8:30pm UAB Blazers vs. Akron Zips: Week 3 Preview and Analysis

The UAB Blazers (1-1) host the Akron Zips (0-2) at Protective Stadium in Birmingham. Vegas implies UAB 32.25–Akron 20.75 (spread UAB -11.5, total 53). UAB looks to rebound after a tough loss at Navy, while Akron searches for its first points of the season.

UAB Blazers

Box Scores:

Wk 1: UAB 52, Alabama St 42 – Wild shootout with multiple lead changes. UAB scored 7 TDs: Kitna 2 pass TD (Hooks 8 yd, Milliner 49 yd), Jackson 2 rush TD (46, 3 yds), Beebe 2 rush TD (5, 7 yds). Defense gave up a 60-yd run and 69-yd pass but offense’s tempo was relentless.

Wk 2: Navy 38, UAB 24 – Tied 24-24 at half before Navy pulled away. Kitna 2 pass TD (Hooks 51 yd, Milliner 25 yd), Jackson 12-yd rush TD. Navy ground game dominated with 4 rush TDs, plus a 63-yd pass. Exposed UAB’s run D.

Injuries: OL Tate, DL Simmons listed day-to-day. WR Brown cleared.

Akron Zips

Box Scores:

Wk 1: Wyoming 10, Akron 0 – Shut out at home. Managed 228 yds vs 426 allowed. Only 3/15 3rd downs. Wyoming QB threw for 260 yds. Akron had 1 TO, 5 penalties. Defense kept it close until late TD pass sealed it.

Wk 2: Nebraska 68, Akron 0 – Complete mismatch. Outgained 730-175. Huskers scored 9 TDs (5 rush, 4 pass). Akron 1/14 on 3rd downs, 1 TO. Nearly even TOP (29:50), but zero big plays, zero sacks. One of worst showings in FBS so far.

Injuries: RB Gee questionable. Otherwise healthy but ineffective.

My final thoughts!

This is the definition of a “bully spot” for UAB. Their defense has been bad (80 pts in 2 games), but Akron’s offense is historically inept with 0 pts in 2 weeks, no sacks recorded, and QB Finley averaging 3.3 YPA. Even Wyoming diced them up for 260 pass yds.

Kitna and Jackson should feast vs a defense that just gave up 728 yds and 68 pts. Dilfer has a 4-1 ATS record as a home favorite and has consistently hammered weak opponents. With Tennessee next week, UAB must stack wins to keep bowl dreams alive. Expect the Blazers to start fast, apply pressure, and cover with ease.

Prediction: UAB 38, Akron 13

Had some accurate write ups last week and some whiffs. Notable…North Carolina, Oklahoma and Wisconsin played out well! But UTSA was blah!

 I’m sure there are more I lost or won….

I’ll post all my game research in this thread unlike last week when I had separate threads.

UNC -13 @ Charlotte 

Bounce-Back Potential Under Belichick: UNC’s 48-14 drubbing by TCU was embarrassing and worst opener in program history for points allowed but it exposed fixable issues like missed tackles (they were plagued by them) and turnovers (three, including a pick-six and fumble-six). Bill Belichick, in his college debut, emphasized addressing self-inflicted errors in his post-game presser. With a full week (albeit short turnaround) to drill fundamentals, expect a sharper defense. Preseason projections had UNC’s D as “average” in the ACC with upside from transfers like DE Pryce Yates and LB Andrew Simpson (who led with 11 tackles vs. TCU). Charlotte’s offense is anemic (23 PPG in 2024, 218 total yards vs. App State), so UNC could dominate the line of scrimmage and force punts/turnovers.

Offensive Mismatch vs. Charlotte’s Weak Defense: The 49ers got torched for 586 yards and 34 points by Appalachian State, allowing 3.6 YPC rushing and minimal pressure (just one TFL on 38 rushes). Their DL was a mess last year (210 rush YPG allowed, 123rd nationally), and it’s rebuilt with unproven transfers. UNC’s balanced attack (31 PPG in 2024) could exploit this, RB Caleb Hood scored early vs. TCU, and WR Jordan Shipp had 84 yards on four catches. If QB Max Johnson starts (more on that below), he looked efficient in relief (9/11, 103 yards, TD), connecting well with his brother TE Jake Johnson. Charlotte’s “thin secondary” invites explosive plays, and the Tar Heels should control tempo for a 30+ point output. 

Talent and Motivation Edge: UNC overhauled with 70+ new players, including a veteran O-line (150+ career starts). They’re motivated to avoid an 0-2 start in Belichick’s regime, especially against an in-state AAC foe. Analytics give UNC an implied 32-18 win (covering -13), and Belichick’s NFL track record suggests quick adjustments. Plus, a split crowd in Charlotte (UNC fans travel well) could feel like a semi-home game.

Historical Context Favoring Blowout: Charlotte ended 2024 at 5-7 with a defense that regressed badly (35 PPG allowed). Their rebuild under new HC Tim Albin includes Power Four QB transfers like Conner Harrell (former UNC backup, 13/24 for 142 yards vs. App State), but the WR and RB rooms are depleted. If UNC gets early stops, this could snowball, similar to how App State rolled up 27 unanswered points on the 49ers.

This screams rebound spot for UNC, they’re the more talented team facing a rebuilding AAC squad with defensive holes. Belichick’s adjustments should fix the tackling woes, and even with QB questions, Johnson’s relief performance suggests the offense can hum against lesser competition. Charlotte simply lacks the firepower to hang if UNC scores 30+. I’d lean yes on covering -13 (or -13.5), projecting a 35-17 win. But if Lopez is limited and the D lags, it could be a 28-17 squeaker failing to cover.

UNC -13 officially on my card.

Thank you Pickett for the penalty inside the 10 yard line and coach for forcing a Miles Sanders run to get him a TD against his former team. Instead of the guy who has two already easily. Fumble 

Played Maryland -16.5 - game is tomorrow night and I don’t see this line moving in my favor