DrGame

Give me:

Ohio State -4 

Georgia ML

Indiana vs Ohio State 

We finally get the #1 vs #2 matchup, but the edge goes to Ohio State. Indiana hasn’t seen a balanced, elite offense like this since Oregon and they struggled that day, managing just 326 total yards. Since then, they’ve feasted on weaker defenses, but OSU brings a different level of firepower.

Ohio State can beat you any way they want:

Sayin completing 79% with elite WRs
BO Jackson and a deep RB room
One of the best OLs in the country (only 6 sacks allowed)

That balance is something Indiana’s defense hasn’t dealt with in months.

On the other side, the Buckeye defense is the biggest mismatch in the game. They’ve allowed 163, 147, 222, 186, 200, 144 total yards in their last six games nobody has moved the ball consistently on them. Indiana has lit up bad teams, but when they faced elite defenses (Iowa, Oregon, Penn State), they averaged only 5.26 YPP.

Ohio State is more balanced, more tested, and just as motivated. Day last week shredded some heavy weight he has been carrying around and now the focus turns to winning the Big10 championship. 

Ohio State by double digits!

Georgia ML - probably my largest play of the year!

Ohio State alternate line by double digits 

When Indiana has run into the heavyweights on their schedule, the offense has sputtered, just 337 yards vs Iowa, 326 vs Oregon, and 326 vs Penn State (only 5.26 YPP). By comparison, Ohio State shredded Penn State for 480 yards and a massive 8.73 YPP. Indiana did play the Nittany Lions on the road while OSU got them in Columbus, but those performances came just one week apart.

Not enough time for a full write up.

Illinois is the far superior team on both lines and has the QB advantage. The weather and matchup favors Illinois at home.

Interesting game so far

@magicmike45

Appreciate the counter, but a few things need correcting.

1. “This has been said for 5 years.”

True but this OSU team isn’t built like the last five. This is the best defense Day has had, allowing 7.6 ppg, and the healthiest roster OSU has taken into this matchup in years. Michigan, meanwhile, is the one dealing with injuries and missing leaders on both sides of the ball.

2. “OSU hasn’t played anyone.”

They’ve faced multiple top-20 defenses, and the Texas win absolutely counts. Texas returned elite talent. Michigan’s schedule has been significantly softer.

3. Weather helps the better defense.

Cold + snow doesn’t magically favor one team it favors the team that stops the run better. That’s OSU by a wide margin this year.

4. “OSU is soft.”

If this defense is soft, nobody in the country is tough. They’ve dominated trenches all season and haven’t allowed a team to breathe in the second half. (With backups intentionally)

5. “Michigan won in Columbus with a walk-on QB.”

Yes, but that was OSU’s worst defensive year in awhile and Michigan’s best roster in years. This Michigan team is nowhere near that level, and their QB situation is shaky at best.

6. Smith and Tate not 100%?

Both expected to play and have been trending upward. OSU is healthier at key positions than Michigan.

All respect to the rivalry, and sure, it’ll be physical, it always is. But the matchup edges this year lean heavily Ohio State, especially defensively.

@magicmike45

Appreciate the counter, but a few things need correcting.

1. “This has been said for 5 years.”

True but this OSU team isn’t built like the last five. This is the best defense Day has had, allowing 7.6 ppg, and the healthiest roster OSU has taken into this matchup in years. Michigan, meanwhile, is the one dealing with injuries and missing leaders on both sides of the ball.

2. “OSU hasn’t played anyone.”

They’ve faced multiple top-20 defenses, and the Texas win absolutely counts. Texas returned elite talent. Michigan’s schedule has been significantly softer.

3. Weather helps the better defense.

Cold + snow doesn’t magically favor one team it favors the team that stops the run better. That’s OSU by a wide margin this year.

4. “OSU is soft.”

If this defense is soft, nobody in the country is tough. They’ve dominated trenches all season and haven’t allowed a team to breathe in the second half. (With backups intentionally)

5. “Michigan won in Columbus with a walk-on QB.”

Yes, but that was OSU’s worst defensive year in awhile and Michigan’s best roster in years. This Michigan team is nowhere near that level, and their QB situation is shaky at best.

6. Smith and Tate not 100%?

Both expected to play and have been trending upward. OSU is healthier at key positions than Michigan.

All respect to the rivalry, and sure, it’ll be physical, it always is. But the matchup edges this year lean heavily Ohio State, especially defensively.

Ohio State rolls into Ann Arbor with the nation’s best defense (7.6 ppg allowed), and that’s the clear edge. Michigan is banged up across the board, with several key offensive and defensive leaders either injured or questionable, which hurts their ability to sustain drives. OSU doesn’t need fireworks, Sayin has been efficient, the WR room is deeper, and the Buckeye defense dominates early downs and passing situations. After four straight losses in the rivalry, the motivation edge finally swings OSU’s way, and they enter as the healthier, deeper roster. Michigan will try to grind with the run, but without their usual leadership and continuity, it’s tough to see them matching OSU for 60 minutes.

Ohio State’s defense controls the early part of the game, forcing Michigan into long-yardage downs and stalled drives. The Wolverines will hit a couple chunk plays, maybe one fluky TD, but sustaining drives is a big ask.

Sayin will be efficient, OSU will run enough to keep balance, and the Buckeyes’ WR depth eventually creates separation.

OSU is 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS in this series when they have the better defense. Check the box, Buckeyes clearly have the stronger D.

Ohio State -9.5 

Great write ups, I’ll give you that credit. But once again, like I have commented before in your threads, you’re clearly an Ohio State hater. You fade them consistently and lose. 

Throw all stats for the Buckeyes away. Day has strategically been low key not exciting. The goal of every game has been get ahead and keep his players healthy for playoff run. 

Saturday, he gets to unleash. Only concern I have will be the wind. Keeping a close on the weather. 

@TRAIN69

 Be careful about the FB becoming a QB. Kemper Hodges was a well recruited 3-Star quarterback recruit out of high school, who Troy Calhoun and staff had him add some weight to his already 220 lb frame before transitioning to fullback in a very crowded room a few years back. It’s not unfamiliar position for him. 

if the AF secondary can play like they have lately and maybe put pressure on NM QB he trends to throw picks. 

I would request this thread get deleted. So many misleading facts. 

even the thread title is wrong

You can’t use AI for PICKS’s blindly, it’s consistently wrong about facts. For some reason, it’s not smart enough to separate seasons. 

It won’t be easy for Indiana today. Give me Penn State and the points at home

Agree with Penn State in this spot.! 

So what are the plays? 

7:30 Oklahoma @ Tennessee-2.5

The Vols have been electric with the ball, averaging 510 yards (3rd FBS) and 45.6 points per game (2nd). Quarterback Joey Aguilar (18-6 TD-INT, 9.3 YPA) leads one of the most balanced and explosive units in the country. Tennessee’s trio of wideouts, Brazzell, Staley, and Matthews, have all topped 560 yards and combined for 16 touchdowns. The ground game is just as dangerous with DeSean Bishop and Star Thomas racking up more than 1,000 yards and 14 scores.

Oklahoma’s defense ranks top-10 nationally in most categories, but the numbers are somewhat inflated by early-season competition. Sixteen of their 29 sacks came in just two games, and this will be the best passing offense they’ve seen all season. The Vols’ O-line has only allowed nine sacks all year and ranks top-5 in pass protection efficiency. Expect Tennessee to challenge the Sooners vertically and stretch the field.

The Sooners’ offense has fallen apart since QB John Mateer returned to the lineup. Oklahoma has scored just 26, 26, and 3 points in its last three outings while the run game sits at 99th nationally. The offensive line has been a problem (17 sacks allowed, 89th FBS), and Mateer’s rushing impact has evaporated.

The bright spot remains WR Isaiah Sategna (624 yards, 14.5 YPC, 5 TDs), who could test a Tennessee secondary that ranks 111th in pass efficiency defense. Still, the Vols’ front seven has been nasty versus the run and disruptive enough to make life difficult for a one-dimensional offense.

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel faces his alma mater again after leading the Vols to a 25–15 win in Norman last year. He’s 16-10 ATS as a home favorite and an absurd 28-5 straight-up at Neyland Stadium. Oklahoma’s Brent Venables is just 8-8 SU in true road games, and the Sooners are traveling for the fifth straight week, fresh off another emotional defeat.

Heupel’s Vols thrive under the lights in Knoxville, and their offense has been unstoppable when rolling downhill. Expect Neyland to be rocking in what could be one of the loudest environments of the season.

It’s hard to see how Oklahoma keeps pace unless Tennessee commits multiple turnovers. The Vols have a better QB, more balance, and a massive home-field edge. Their revenge tour continues and Heupel gets another one over his old program.

WTH happened to Houston! Dang! 

almost swept the Buckeyes - I had a little hope before the fumble at half! 10k swing for me. But I doubled down on 3Q! ??

7:30 Washington State -3 @ Oregon State 

Washington State heads to Corvallis looking to keep their late-season push alive while Oregon State continues to search for consistency. The Cougars are 9–2 straight-up and 8–4 ATS in the series, and history favors the home team, but trends, form, and metrics all point toward Washington State being the more complete team right now.

The Cougars have quietly pieced together one of the more underrated résumés in the Pac-12’s final chapter. Their only losses came on the road to Ole Miss and Virginia, both by a field goal, and they followed those with a dominant win over Toledo. Despite some red-zone inefficiency, Wazzu has moved the ball well and leaned on a defense that has kept opponents under 300 yards in three straight.

Quarterback play has been steady, and this unit’s discipline (No. 1 in the Pac-12 in penalty yards allowed) has allowed them to control tempo and field position. Their defense ranks #40 nationally, and the Cougars are +7.4 ATS in this series since 2010.

The Beavers’ season has been a grind. They opened 0–7, fired their head coach, and finally got a feel-good win before the bye against Lafayette, one of the weakest FBS teams in the country. Oregon State is just 1–7 ATS overall and 0–4 SU versus FBS opponents this year. Their offense has averaged just 21 PPG since September and sits near the bottom 20 nationally in yards per play.

Defensively, OSU has shown effort but not results. They allow 139 rush YPG (ranked #89 FBS) and now face a balanced Cougar attack that can stretch the field laterally and vertically.

Washington State is 4–0 SU and ATS in the last four matchups vs OSU.

Cougars are 19–8 ATS as a home favorite and 11–2 ATS as an away dog.

Oregon State is 3–8 ATS off a bye and has dropped three straight ATS decisions.

Washington State has been the steadier, tougher, and more complete team all year. Oregon State’s struggles moving the ball and recent coaching turmoil don’t inspire confidence, even off a bye. The Cougars’ edge in defensive discipline and consistency on both sides of the ball should be enough to cover a short number.

Tread carefully our forum fave TRAIN likes West Virginia and Penn State

Last but not certainly least….. I’ll be back later, headed to the stadium for this one!

Ohio State FQ -6.5
Ohio State FH -10.5

Ohio State -18.5
Ohio State TT over 30.5

Ohio State team against a struggling Penn State squad that’s dealing with significant turmoil, including an interim coach, a backup quarterback (Grunkemeyer making his second road start), and a fired head coach in Franklin. Ohio State enters as heavy favorites with their elite defense, ranked #1 nationally, allowing just 5.86-5.9 points per game and holding foes to 170 yards below their average, being the standout factor. They’ve been historically stingy, not surrendering a touchdown in the first half all season, underscores their ability to dominate early. Offensively, QB Sayin leads the nation in passing efficiency (80% completion, 19-3 TD-INT ratio), powering an attack that’s posted 36.4 points per game while winning Big Ten games by an average of 34-6.

Penn State, meanwhile, is a shell of preseason expectations at 3-4 SU and a dismal 1-6 ATS, failing to cover by 10.9 points per game. Their offense has been anemic in recent outings, managing just 93 and 137 passing yards in the last two games, and they got gashed for 245 rushing yards by Iowa. Defensively, they’re elite on paper (#20 in rush yards allowed, holding to 57 ypg below average under DC Knowles, a former OSU coordinator), but they’ve surrendered 31 ppg over their last four and are -70 ypg in Big Ten play. History shows Ohio State has won eight straight in the series.

Jim Knowles’ abrupt departure from Ohio State to Penn State as defensive coordinator came as a shock, occurring mere hours after the Buckeyes’ national championship celebration in early 2025, despite an offer for a contract extension from head coach Ryan Day.    Knowles, who had transformed OSU’s defense into a top unit from 2022-2024, cited a desire for new challenges and a lucrative deal in State College, but the move left lingering tension, with Day openly expressing a cold stance and hinting at unfinished business.   Now, facing his former team in Columbus for the first time, the Buckeyes are fueled by revenge, eager to steamroll Knowles’ Nittany Lions defense and prove a point in this heated Big Ten rivalry matchup. 

West Virginia @ Houston -13 

Houston looks to be peaking at the right time, while West Virginia enters this matchup in a tailspin. The Mountaineers have dropped five straight and are averaging just 13 points per game in that stretch. They’ve been outgained by 209 yards per game on the road, and their offense continues to sputter behind a banged-up quarterback group that’s been inconsistent at best.

The Cougars, on the other hand, have found rhythm on both sides of the ball. Their defense has tightened up, holding foes to 21 yards per game below average, while QB Conner Weigman has provided balance and efficiency, distributing the ball well and avoiding pressure behind an improving offensive line. At home, Houston has averaged over 34 points per game, and their special teams are among the best in the country,  a key separator in what could otherwise be a grind-it-out matchup.

West Virginia’s defense has worn down in second halves, and their lack of depth in the trenches will be tested against a Cougar team that’s been dominating up front. Expect Houston’s pass rush to make life difficult for WVU’s inexperienced QB, forcing turnovers and short fields.

The matchup, yardage edge, and motivational angle all point one way, Houston dominates a struggling Mountaineer squad that’s 0-5 SU in its last five and 0-3 on the road.

Notre Dame comes in hot, ranked around #3 in power ratings with a balanced attack: potent offense paired with a stingy defense that’s allowed just 24, 7, 7, and 13 points over their last four games. The Irish are humming, having won nine straight in the series and covering the spread in four consecutive meetings. Overall, they’ve outscored BC by an average of 18 points during that streak. They started the season 0-2 with close losses (3-point and 1-point deficits), but have been perfect since, on a strong 37-13-2 ATS run and covering their last regular game by 37 points.

Boston College, on the other hand, has dropped six in a row and is limping to the finish line on a 1-7 SU slide, giving up 37.5 ppg during that stretch. That said, the Eagles have shown some spunk, they competed well against Louisville recently, staying in it throughout despite the loss. This game is at Chestnut Hill, where BC has had some success hosting in the past (4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in recent home meetings), though Notre Dame has reeled off nine straight wins overall in the series, including the last four as blowouts averaging 45-15.

The recent blowouts suggest ND can pile on 40+ points against a struggling BC defense, and if the Eagles manage 15-20 points at home (they’ve shown they can score in spots, like hanging with Louisville), we’re easily clearing 56. This is also noted as the biggest point spread in the rivalry’s history, but the total feels playable given ND’s offensive firepower and BC’s potential to contribute a bit offensively rather than getting completely shut out.

BC used to give ND fits, including an upset in the 2000s, but the Irish have turned it around dramatically. Still, with the Eagles desperate for a spark in this rivalry game, I see enough scoring potential to go over. Weather looks clear, and both teams have QBs capable of moving the ball, ND’s efficiency ranks high, while BC has weapons despite their skid.

Anyone seeing the under instead? If not let’s make the over an official play!