DrGame

So what are the plays? 

7:30 Oklahoma @ Tennessee-2.5

The Vols have been electric with the ball, averaging 510 yards (3rd FBS) and 45.6 points per game (2nd). Quarterback Joey Aguilar (18-6 TD-INT, 9.3 YPA) leads one of the most balanced and explosive units in the country. Tennessee’s trio of wideouts, Brazzell, Staley, and Matthews, have all topped 560 yards and combined for 16 touchdowns. The ground game is just as dangerous with DeSean Bishop and Star Thomas racking up more than 1,000 yards and 14 scores.

Oklahoma’s defense ranks top-10 nationally in most categories, but the numbers are somewhat inflated by early-season competition. Sixteen of their 29 sacks came in just two games, and this will be the best passing offense they’ve seen all season. The Vols’ O-line has only allowed nine sacks all year and ranks top-5 in pass protection efficiency. Expect Tennessee to challenge the Sooners vertically and stretch the field.

The Sooners’ offense has fallen apart since QB John Mateer returned to the lineup. Oklahoma has scored just 26, 26, and 3 points in its last three outings while the run game sits at 99th nationally. The offensive line has been a problem (17 sacks allowed, 89th FBS), and Mateer’s rushing impact has evaporated.

The bright spot remains WR Isaiah Sategna (624 yards, 14.5 YPC, 5 TDs), who could test a Tennessee secondary that ranks 111th in pass efficiency defense. Still, the Vols’ front seven has been nasty versus the run and disruptive enough to make life difficult for a one-dimensional offense.

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel faces his alma mater again after leading the Vols to a 25–15 win in Norman last year. He’s 16-10 ATS as a home favorite and an absurd 28-5 straight-up at Neyland Stadium. Oklahoma’s Brent Venables is just 8-8 SU in true road games, and the Sooners are traveling for the fifth straight week, fresh off another emotional defeat.

Heupel’s Vols thrive under the lights in Knoxville, and their offense has been unstoppable when rolling downhill. Expect Neyland to be rocking in what could be one of the loudest environments of the season.

It’s hard to see how Oklahoma keeps pace unless Tennessee commits multiple turnovers. The Vols have a better QB, more balance, and a massive home-field edge. Their revenge tour continues and Heupel gets another one over his old program.

WTH happened to Houston! Dang! 

almost swept the Buckeyes - I had a little hope before the fumble at half! 10k swing for me. But I doubled down on 3Q! ??

7:30 Washington State -3 @ Oregon State 

Washington State heads to Corvallis looking to keep their late-season push alive while Oregon State continues to search for consistency. The Cougars are 9–2 straight-up and 8–4 ATS in the series, and history favors the home team, but trends, form, and metrics all point toward Washington State being the more complete team right now.

The Cougars have quietly pieced together one of the more underrated résumés in the Pac-12’s final chapter. Their only losses came on the road to Ole Miss and Virginia, both by a field goal, and they followed those with a dominant win over Toledo. Despite some red-zone inefficiency, Wazzu has moved the ball well and leaned on a defense that has kept opponents under 300 yards in three straight.

Quarterback play has been steady, and this unit’s discipline (No. 1 in the Pac-12 in penalty yards allowed) has allowed them to control tempo and field position. Their defense ranks #40 nationally, and the Cougars are +7.4 ATS in this series since 2010.

The Beavers’ season has been a grind. They opened 0–7, fired their head coach, and finally got a feel-good win before the bye against Lafayette, one of the weakest FBS teams in the country. Oregon State is just 1–7 ATS overall and 0–4 SU versus FBS opponents this year. Their offense has averaged just 21 PPG since September and sits near the bottom 20 nationally in yards per play.

Defensively, OSU has shown effort but not results. They allow 139 rush YPG (ranked #89 FBS) and now face a balanced Cougar attack that can stretch the field laterally and vertically.

Washington State is 4–0 SU and ATS in the last four matchups vs OSU.

Cougars are 19–8 ATS as a home favorite and 11–2 ATS as an away dog.

Oregon State is 3–8 ATS off a bye and has dropped three straight ATS decisions.

Washington State has been the steadier, tougher, and more complete team all year. Oregon State’s struggles moving the ball and recent coaching turmoil don’t inspire confidence, even off a bye. The Cougars’ edge in defensive discipline and consistency on both sides of the ball should be enough to cover a short number.

Tread carefully our forum fave TRAIN likes West Virginia and Penn State

Last but not certainly least….. I’ll be back later, headed to the stadium for this one!

Ohio State FQ -6.5
Ohio State FH -10.5

Ohio State -18.5
Ohio State TT over 30.5

Ohio State team against a struggling Penn State squad that’s dealing with significant turmoil, including an interim coach, a backup quarterback (Grunkemeyer making his second road start), and a fired head coach in Franklin. Ohio State enters as heavy favorites with their elite defense, ranked #1 nationally, allowing just 5.86-5.9 points per game and holding foes to 170 yards below their average, being the standout factor. They’ve been historically stingy, not surrendering a touchdown in the first half all season, underscores their ability to dominate early. Offensively, QB Sayin leads the nation in passing efficiency (80% completion, 19-3 TD-INT ratio), powering an attack that’s posted 36.4 points per game while winning Big Ten games by an average of 34-6.

Penn State, meanwhile, is a shell of preseason expectations at 3-4 SU and a dismal 1-6 ATS, failing to cover by 10.9 points per game. Their offense has been anemic in recent outings, managing just 93 and 137 passing yards in the last two games, and they got gashed for 245 rushing yards by Iowa. Defensively, they’re elite on paper (#20 in rush yards allowed, holding to 57 ypg below average under DC Knowles, a former OSU coordinator), but they’ve surrendered 31 ppg over their last four and are -70 ypg in Big Ten play. History shows Ohio State has won eight straight in the series.

Jim Knowles’ abrupt departure from Ohio State to Penn State as defensive coordinator came as a shock, occurring mere hours after the Buckeyes’ national championship celebration in early 2025, despite an offer for a contract extension from head coach Ryan Day.    Knowles, who had transformed OSU’s defense into a top unit from 2022-2024, cited a desire for new challenges and a lucrative deal in State College, but the move left lingering tension, with Day openly expressing a cold stance and hinting at unfinished business.   Now, facing his former team in Columbus for the first time, the Buckeyes are fueled by revenge, eager to steamroll Knowles’ Nittany Lions defense and prove a point in this heated Big Ten rivalry matchup. 

West Virginia @ Houston -13 

Houston looks to be peaking at the right time, while West Virginia enters this matchup in a tailspin. The Mountaineers have dropped five straight and are averaging just 13 points per game in that stretch. They’ve been outgained by 209 yards per game on the road, and their offense continues to sputter behind a banged-up quarterback group that’s been inconsistent at best.

The Cougars, on the other hand, have found rhythm on both sides of the ball. Their defense has tightened up, holding foes to 21 yards per game below average, while QB Conner Weigman has provided balance and efficiency, distributing the ball well and avoiding pressure behind an improving offensive line. At home, Houston has averaged over 34 points per game, and their special teams are among the best in the country,  a key separator in what could otherwise be a grind-it-out matchup.

West Virginia’s defense has worn down in second halves, and their lack of depth in the trenches will be tested against a Cougar team that’s been dominating up front. Expect Houston’s pass rush to make life difficult for WVU’s inexperienced QB, forcing turnovers and short fields.

The matchup, yardage edge, and motivational angle all point one way, Houston dominates a struggling Mountaineer squad that’s 0-5 SU in its last five and 0-3 on the road.

Notre Dame comes in hot, ranked around #3 in power ratings with a balanced attack: potent offense paired with a stingy defense that’s allowed just 24, 7, 7, and 13 points over their last four games. The Irish are humming, having won nine straight in the series and covering the spread in four consecutive meetings. Overall, they’ve outscored BC by an average of 18 points during that streak. They started the season 0-2 with close losses (3-point and 1-point deficits), but have been perfect since, on a strong 37-13-2 ATS run and covering their last regular game by 37 points.

Boston College, on the other hand, has dropped six in a row and is limping to the finish line on a 1-7 SU slide, giving up 37.5 ppg during that stretch. That said, the Eagles have shown some spunk, they competed well against Louisville recently, staying in it throughout despite the loss. This game is at Chestnut Hill, where BC has had some success hosting in the past (4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in recent home meetings), though Notre Dame has reeled off nine straight wins overall in the series, including the last four as blowouts averaging 45-15.

The recent blowouts suggest ND can pile on 40+ points against a struggling BC defense, and if the Eagles manage 15-20 points at home (they’ve shown they can score in spots, like hanging with Louisville), we’re easily clearing 56. This is also noted as the biggest point spread in the rivalry’s history, but the total feels playable given ND’s offensive firepower and BC’s potential to contribute a bit offensively rather than getting completely shut out.

BC used to give ND fits, including an upset in the 2000s, but the Irish have turned it around dramatically. Still, with the Eagles desperate for a spark in this rivalry game, I see enough scoring potential to go over. Weather looks clear, and both teams have QBs capable of moving the ball, ND’s efficiency ranks high, while BC has weapons despite their skid.

Anyone seeing the under instead? If not let’s make the over an official play!

I believe this is the third time you went against the Buckeyes this season. All due respect as I follow a lot of your plays but you’re wrong again on this one. Give me Buckeyes for 10 in a row ATS since the Michigan game. 

4 star recruit QB from Ohio who looked like trash against Iowa. Watched this kid live in high school. Blah! Now playing in the shoe - favor Ohio State

Ohio State hasn’t given up a TD in the first half. I don’t see that changing here.  - favor Ohio State

 I’ll type more in my thread why Ohio State wins, covers multiple lines.

Here’s a look at where the top of the leaderboard landed for Week 8. The most popular pick among last week’s leaders is Chicago, appearing in 8 of the 15 leader entries. The Bears continue to attract confidence after back-to-back solid efforts.

Next up are Houston and New Orleans, each showing up 6 times. The Texans have been a steady play most of the year, while the Saints drew heavy support as a rebound spot.

Buffalo and Pittsburgh follow closely, both appearing 5 times among the leaders. Buffalo’s pick volume suggests some buy-the-dip faith, while Pittsburgh remains a grinder’s favorite given their typical underdog value.

Overall, the leaders are leaning toward teams with defensive edges and strong ATS trends — heavy focus on CHI, HOU, NO, BUF, and PIT this week.

Here’s how many of the Week 7 leaders selected oposing teams for Week 8:

• Baltimore (BAL): 1 pick
• San Francisco (49ers): 3 picks
• Tampa Bay (Buccaneers): 3 picks

So, only a few of the leaders backed the Ravens, while SF and Tampa Bay each drew moderate support.

Keep in mind these are opening lines. 

Play #6 

3:30 NC State @ Pittsburgh -6

Pitt is trending upward under freshman QB Mason Heintschel, winning and covering three straight (3-0 SU/ATS). The Panthers’ offense has erupted for 30+, 34, and 48 points in their last three contests while their defense has stiffened, allowing only 82 rush yards per game and generating 19 sacks.

NC State, on the other hand, is fresh off a bye but still licking wounds from a 29-7 loss to Notre Dame. RB Smothers has been the lone bright spot (739 yards, 6.6 ypc), yet he now faces a front that’s been suffocating versus the run. The Wolfpack have failed to find consistency on either side of the ball and could again be without both starting linebackers, including All-ACC Kyle Louis. (Fact check injury report)

Defensive Front: Pitt’s defensive line is dominating the trenches; NC State’s O-line has struggled versus physical fronts.

Pitt’s offense has found rhythm and confidence since the QB change, while NC State remains inconsistent despite the bye.

Panthers are 6-2 ATS as home favorites and could easily be 7-0 if not for two blown double-digit leads earlier this year.

The game total most likely making my card later. I don’t see Wisconsin getting shut out in this one. 

@SPark1

 I hear ya, but with a line this low it tells you the focus is 100% on this week and just finding a way to get the W. It’s not like they’re laying a big number where the back door or a flat spot can burn you. Just need a solid, business-trip performance and get out of Winston-Salem with a win.

Week 9 Plays:

Delaware -9 (31-28) -6 Loser

Vtech -6 (42-34) +2 Winner

12:00 Ole Miss @ Oklahoma -4

12:00 Rutgers @ Purdue over 58

12:00 SMU -3 @ Wake Forest

more to come…..

play #5

12:00 SMU -3 @ Wake Forest 

I get the old saying, when it looks too easy, look the other way but I can’t pass on SMU here. Wake’s 4–2 record looks decent until you look at who they’ve beaten: Kennesaw State by one, Western Carolina, a struggling Virginia Tech, and winless Oregon State. Their schedule has been soft, and while the defense has looked better, it’s hard to trust that against real competition.

SMU’s two losses came against Baylor and TCU, a much tougher slate than what Wake’s seen. Since then, they’ve reeled off three straight conference wins by 18, 24, and 11 all by double digits. Rhett Lashlee has made league play his focus, and SMU is now 20–0 in regular-season conference games with an average margin of victory of 22 points.

Jennings has been sharp (68% comp, 17 TDs, 7 INTs), and this offense should have no issue moving the ball. SMU’s simply the more complete team and should keep rolling.

Play #4 

maybe I can hit a game not played on Saturday!

Cal @ Virginia Tech -6

This sets up as a tough spot for Cal and a great situational edge for Virginia Tech. The Hokies come in off a bye week, while Cal travels across the country on short rest for a Friday night game in Blacksburg, one of the toughest environments in the ACC when “Enter Sandman” is echoing through Lane Stadium. Had to say it but let’s not put too much emphasis on the song, it’s just super cool!

Cal is 5–2 but has fattened up on weak opponents. Their only ACC wins came against Boston College and North Carolina, both struggling defenses, and they were lucky to escape after UNC fumbling on the goal line. They’re just -14 YPG vs a bottom-45 schedule. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech’s record doesn’t show how much better they’ve looked under interim HC Monty Montgomery, who has them playing hard and improving each week.

Virginia Tech’s offense has been inconsistent, but QB Kyron Drones has quietly hit 61% completions with solid dual-threat ability, and RB Kendrick Raphael has added steady production (509 yds, 4.4 YPC). Cal’s defense ranks respectably on paper, but they’ve yet to face a balanced attack like this, their numbers are inflated after facing six below-average offenses.

Virginia Tech is 16-8 ATS as a favorite at home and 5-0 to the over off a bye since 2021.

Hokies off a bye vs Cal on short rest & long travel (3 time zones).

Cal’s QB JKS has 7 INTs and faces a defense holding foes 7 YPG below average.

VT defense inconsistent vs pass but strong vs run (only 137 rush YPG allowed).

Crowd advantage is huge on a Friday night in Lane Stadium.

Virginia Tech uses rest, atmosphere, and motivation to pull away late. Cal’s offense sputters once forced to throw from behind.

Play #3 

12:00 Rutgers @ Purdue over 58

This matchup sets up perfectly for points. Both offenses are coming off rough outings, but the underlying numbers point toward a bounce-back on both sides. Rutgers has quietly been one of the most consistent Over teams in the Big Ten this year, and Purdue’s defense is showing cracks everywhere, especially through the air.

Six of Rutgers’ seven games have already topped this number, and Purdue’s last five have all featured big yardage totals on both sides. Neither defense is built to control tempo, and both offenses can exploit each other’s weak spots.

Why I Like the Over

Defensive issues: Rutgers gave up 446 yards to Oregon and over 500 to Washington. Purdue’s allowed 30+ in four of its last five and is giving up 315 passing yards per game.

Tempo: Both teams run fast-paced, no-huddle looks that extend drives and create more possessions.

Explosive Plays: Purdue can still stretch the field vertically, and Rutgers’ QB play has improved enough to take advantage of a soft secondary.

Motivation Factor: Both staffs badly need this one. Expect aggressive 4th-down calls and very little punting in plus territory.

I don’t see either defense holding up for four quarters. Rutgers’ secondary is getting exposed weekly, and Purdue’s tackling and discipline are falling apart. Both teams should trade scores throughout, and this one could turn into a “who has the ball last” type of finish.

Ready to move on from that loss! 

Play #2 

12:00 Ole Miss @ Oklahoma -4

Ole Miss enters as underdogs after a tough stretch, highlighted by a significant loss to Georgia where their defense collapsed, allowing points on the first eight drives and getting out-gained 143-13 in the fourth quarter alone. The Rebels have shown vulnerability on the road, going 0-8-2 ATS in the second half of consecutive road games. Last year’s win over Oklahoma (25-14 at home) was aided by a strong second-half surge (outscoring the Sooners 19-6), but this time they’re making their first trip to Norman since a 1999 bowl game. Distractions around head coach Lane Kiffin, with reports of interest from Florida potentially impacting focus, Kiffin hasn’t discouraged the speculation, unlike other coaches.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, is coming off a narrow win but boasts a defense that’s held all seven opponents to season-low yardage in 2025, the only team in the nation with that claim. Oklahoma’s home edge is significant, with a 7-0 ATS trend against foes coming off two straight defeats. Oklahoma’s ability to limit opponents, with recent games staying under totals and strong performances against similar profiles.

Oklahoma 8-1 ATS as HF vs Power-5 opponents last 2 seasons

Ole Miss 0-5 ATS after facing a Top-10 team

Oklahoma’s balance (249 pass / 130 rush per game) and red-zone efficiency (31-of-39 scores) contrast sharply with Ole Miss’s inconsistent second-half offense, which has produced just one TD after halftime in its last two games.

OU ranks #1 nationally in sacks (28) and top-10 in PPG allowed (14). Ole Miss’s offensive line was dominated by Georgia, surrendering 10 tackles for loss

Oklahoma’s front seven is the decisive edge. Ole Miss looked worn down and undisciplined against Georgia and now draws an even stingier defense on the road in Norman. With John Mateer getting healthier, the Sooners’ offense should find rhythm early and let their defense close the door late. Lane Kiffin’s road woes and the second-leg fatigue make it difficult to back the Rebels here.

Chargers -3 (BIG)

Action on a Wednesday, might as well. I’ll post my entire card later this week. 

Middle Tennessee @ Delaware -9

Due to Delaware potent home offense averaging over 430 yards per game, strong third-down poise, and ability to exploit Middle Tennessee’s bottom-tier red-zone defense (one of the worst nationally in allowing touchdowns). Delaware’s balanced attack and talent edge up front, which should let the Blue Hens control the clock and grind out a comfortable win. Blue Hens is the best team on paper in Conference USA, despite recent losses, they’ve outgained opponents like WKU (by 97 yards) and Jax State (by 68 yards), with turnovers being the main issue. Expect Delaware to handle MTSU handily, especially against a struggling program under Derek Mason. MTSU’s dropped three straight games before a bye, gone 1-8 straight-up in their last nine overall, and relied on luck in their lone win (outgained by 1.5 yards per play at Nevada).

Delaware is the superior side with home-field momentum, while MTSU’s inconsistent offense and defense make them vulnerable to a blowout.

@BankOnIt22

 Grrr…win streak obviously