DrGame

Before we get started…..

Seems like this forum has a real hatred for the Buckeyes. Week after week, the majority here lines up to fade them and week after week, that’s been a losing strategy. Ohio State has covered every game this season, yet here we are again.

The line opened as high as 28.5 and has now dropped to 25, Are people once again taking a swing at “this is the week they don’t cover.”

Personally? I wouldn’t.

I’ll share more details and a few angles on the matchup later, but it’s worth asking, how many times are folks going to bet against this team before they learn?

@Lovethegame123

 My write up must be confusing. I like Ohio State’s team total. 

My write up about QBs - bottom line - they won’t have to commit a defender as spy for the first time this season. Should allow their defense to blitz more. 

Illinois Totals so far (6 games): 19 sacks allowed for 139 yards — 3.17 sacks/game and 23.17 yards/game lost.

Through 5 games in 2025, Ohio State has recorded 14 sacks total, which works out to 2.80 sacks per game. 

Through 5 games, teams have had 8 red zone attempts against Ohio State.  Of those 8 attempts, the opponents have scored 3 times (but 0 times as touchdowns), meaning Ohio State has only allowed field goals in red zone situations so far.

Points will not come easy for Illinois. 

Adding 

12:00 Alabama -3 @ Missouri 

USC is a powerhouse at home under Lincoln Riley (18-5 straight up), and they’re 13-7 ATS as home favorites, plus 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS at home vs Big Ten foes (9-1 SU/ATS vs winning teams). They’re coming off a bye after a tough loss, a spot where they thrive, while Michigan just played a physical game vs Wisconsin and now faces the long West Coast trip for a night game, their first Coliseum visit since 1957 (a 16-6 win, but USC leads the series 6-5 overall). The Wolverines are 6-6 ATS as away dogs, 1-4 ATS as road dogs of 7 or less, and a dismal 2-10 ATS in Big Ten games off a loss. the salt between coaches, Michigan’s Sherrone Moore claiming the sellout is due to the Wolverines, Riley firing back and points out Michigan waving goodbye to CFP hopes with a loss here. History adds intrigue: Last year’s Ann Arbor clash saw USC rally from 14-0 down but fall 27-24 on a late Michigan TD. Intangibles favor the rested, motivated home team in prime time.

Illinois is 5-1 but has allowed 453/490/579 yards in their last three games. Plus gave up 438 yards to Duke. 

Ohio State’s offense should have no problem putting up those numbers too. 

Official Card:

12:00 Ohio State -14 @ Illinois, Ohio State TT over 33

12:00 Pittsburgh @ Florida State -10

3:30 Oklahoma ML @ Texas 

3:30 Indiana @ Oregon over 53

7:30 Michigan @ USC -2.5

Ugh!!! I have no idea why I typed out Knowles. 

I’m a Buckeyes fan and will be at the game. 

I really need to stop posting or at least proof read what I write. I’m so glad he is gone, I couldn’t stand his defense. 

Ohio State -14 @ Illinois 

I’ll come back with more information. 

Ohio State’s defense has faced a steady run of mobile quarterbacks this season: Arch Manning (Texas), Parker Navarro (Ohio), Malik Washington (Washington), and Desmond Williams (Minnesota),  each bringing a legitimate dual-threat or scramble element to the table. Navarro is a true dual-threat with designed QB runs, Washington has been one of the most dynamic rushing QBs in the Big Ten, and both Manning and Williams have extended plays consistently with their legs. By contrast, Illinois QB Luke Altmyer presents a very different challenge. He has –8 rushing yards on 39 attempts this year and operates in Bret Bielema’s traditional offense with minimal designed QB runs. This will be the first game all season where Ohio State’s defense doesn’t have to account for a true mobile quarterback, allowing Jim Knowles to unleash a more aggressive pass rush without worrying about containment or QB keepers. That schematic shift could tilt the matchup heavily toward OSU’s front seven, which has been dominant through the first half of the season.

Ohio State - if you’re going to throw all in it has to be on a good team 

Manning will NOT:

1. Have a good game 

2. Handle the pressure of this game 

3. Handle Oklahoma’s defense 

Texas is favorite because it’s home, Manning still a household name, Oklahoma’s star QB is out, and rivalries season records do not matter.

Texas season is over and they will be playing in the pop tart bowl or something. 

I have never disagreed with a list more than this one. 

Very brave to fade the Buckeyes. Surprised the line is this low. 

Do you think all of sudden their defense is going to give up points? I don’t see their QB handling the defensive schemes that well.

USC is on my list. Need to confirm a couple things. 

stay hot!

Wentz is going to be on the ground a lot today. Expect him to make some bad throws too while under pressure, probably to the wrong team. 

Browns have faced much better QBs than Wentz and stopped them. 

Ironically, Daniel Jones won his first two starts. Not sure if it either were road wins.

Phils Sims won his first five games but that was 1979. 

@Midnight1

 Miami’s offense has been efficient and physical, anchored by a bruising ground game that ranks #4 in the ACC (181 YPG). QB Carson Beck is completing 73% of his passes with a 7–3 TD-INT ratio and has been well protected (5 sacks in 4 games). The WR trio of Toney, Daniels, and Marion has been steady, if unspectacular, and the offensive line is elite. This isn’t last year’s fireworks unit, but it’s a balanced, methodical attack that grinds defenses down.

FSU’s defense held up well against Alabama’s limited ground game in Week 1 but showed cracks vs Virginia, surrendering 200+ rushing yards and struggling to contain explosive plays. They’ve registered 10 sacks and rank 5th in the ACC in TFL, solid but not overwhelming. Miami should be able to impose their will in the trenches, but Beck may need to hit a few chunk throws to truly separate. Notably, Florida State has only allowed three 30+ yard pass plays all season.

The Noles rank #2 nationally in rushing (336 YPG), thanks to QB Thomas Castellanos, a dynamic runner whose passing remains inconsistent (64%, 4–3 TD-INT). His connection with WR Duce Robinson (17 catches, 346 yards, 20.4 YPC) has been the lone big-play threat through the air.

The problem? Miami’s defensive front is elite, allowing just 76 rushing YPG (#8 nationally) and has already shut down mobile QBs. They sacked Notre Dame QBs three times and Florida QBs four times, and they’ll make Castellanos work for every yard. If FSU can’t stay ahead of schedule with the run, their offense risks stalling.

This matchup features two battle-tested teams with contrasting strengths. Florida State leans on a lethal ground game, but Miami is built to counter exactly that, with one of the best front sevens in the country. Offensively, Miami has the steadier QB play and offensive line, and they’ve looked disciplined through four weeks. FSU’s home crowd and rushing attack keep them dangerous, but the bye-week edge and defensive front tilt this slightly toward the Canes.

@smellybunty

 Yes sir! Typed incorrectly! 

12:00 Navy/Air Force over 51  

3:30 C Michigan -7 @ Akron  

4:00 Kent State @ Oklahoma FQ -10 

7:30 Minnesota @ Ohio State -23 

7:30 FSU @ Miami -4 

What do you need to know about my picks? Let’s discuss!

Upset I didn’t get the early line on this one. But grabbed the ML early at +200.

Ohio comes into this matchup having dominated the recent series, going 5-0 straight up and against the spread (SU/ATS) in the last five meetings. The Bobcats rolled Ball State last year 42–21 as 17-point road favorites, despite briefly trailing 35–7 in the third quarter. Ohio forced three turnovers in their last trip to Muncie (2022), a 32–18 win, and overall has taken on the tougher schedule this season (#34 vs #57).

Ball State enters off a bye week, which may be timely given their 1–3 start that included blowout losses to Purdue and Auburn before rebounding with a close 31–25 road loss to UConn. That UConn game was notable, the Cardinals showed life in the passing game for the first time all year, posting 404 total yards and nearly pulling the upset, losing on a late touchdown with nine seconds left. Quarterback Kiael Kelly, who led the team to some late-season wins last year, is back under center and hitting 65% of his passes with a 3–2 TD-INT ratio while adding 170 yards on the ground.

Ohio, meanwhile, has been on a six-game grind, playing its sixth straight week. They opened strong with competitive road games at Rutgers and Ohio State, plus a home upset over unbeaten West Virginia. Last week against Bowling Green, the Bobcats controlled the game early, leading 21–13 at halftime with a 282–203 yard edge, but some missed kicks and a pick at the goal line kept the game closer. They still outgained BG 439–350 but allowed a late score that made it interesting. Offensively, Ohio has looked sharp, but defensively they’ve been solid but not dominant, a point to watch given Ball State’s improved air attack.

This is the first game for Ball State under new head coach Brian Smith as a home underdog, while Ohio remains under experienced leadership and has been tested more. Historical trends favor Ohio: Ball State is 10–16 ATS as a home dog over the last 11 years.