theclaw

Sac, here is the list of teams Broncos beat at home.

2-12 Titans

2-12 Giants

2-12 Raiders

4-10 Bengals

6-7-1 Boys

6-8 KC 

And Boys did not start playing better untill after playing Broncos and losing the next week.

That leaves the opp with the best record, a losing record at that as the team that won the week after playing Broncos.

I don't think these teams were losing because of playing Denver in Denver.

Something to think about.

I took a quick look at Bears, not this bad but they beat some weak teams so not surprised  those teams would lose the week after any opp.

No chance ..................

Broncos likely won't be in the SB but the Rams could be.

Did he predict that before the season started ?

Or recently. If he did it recently that would be an obvious prediction................

Love it with top 5 pick being on the dog Dolphins..............

Last week 2-2

Season 32-22-2

Jets +12.5

Colts +13.5

KC -4.5

Steelers -3 ...... since Steelers game was not posted I got the line from matchup page. If it is -3.5 i still take it

Last week --- 2-2

Season --- 32-22-2

No Steelers/Dolphins monday night game.

I see line is Steelers -3 in matchup page but maybe not when u posted the lines this week could of been -3.5.

Can u verify the line ???

Pending plays ..........

Steelers

Zona

Colts 

Jets

KC

Packers

You can get the best lines all week on some of these plays.

Zona up to +10.5

Jets and Colts I saw at +14, I did get the 14 but buying up to do that.

I did miss getting KC at -4 or -4.5 early in the week, I thought that was to high and public would drive it down which I was correct but the sharps backed KC.

I did see some talk early in week on you tube that KC'S dynasty was dead, KC was toast and done which is a pretty good indicator they peaked at the bottom.

The Bounce Factor .................

KC -5.5  over Chargers --- 1.1 units

We have a BF play on KC, playing on a low unsustainable  level.

Public on Chargers but sharps on KC driving the line higher.

Good spot to back KC .

Packers -1 (-113) over Broncos --- .57 units

Yea Rivers..... crazy............

Will he survive this game ?

Hopefully they run some easy routes for easy completions and use the run game to slow the game and give Seahawks fewer plays.

Hey Flacco came back what, last year or year before I think it was and did pretty well with Browns. I think he was 40 ?

It doesn't  seem reasonable Rivers will be very effective. They do have Leonard if he don't look good.

Yes, it is one of those games u just have to take it like it or not. Over the long term it should be a winner ....................

Interesting  I did see good cappers on you tube saying sprinkle the Jets ML along with taking the points.

I agree with alot of what u are saying, there's  many factors u could add in but I follow the methods I have, as long as I stay the course I should be just fine ..............

..

Very cool to hear your perspective............

They claim he was pretty good at avoiding TO's in college. I never heard of him but I don't pay much attention to college sports.....

Broncos definitely  not the best team in the AFC.

Pts Per Plays Margin history tells us most all SB winners are .090 or better.

Broncos .083. Close but no cigar even with a great record and season so far.

6 teams do meet the .090.

Seahawks, Rams , Colts, Lions, Pats, Packers.

Obviously Colts are toast.

Seahawks and Rams the 2 best teams. Both teams had a big week last week pushing their rating close to 12 needed to be a very good no. 1 rated team.

But this week could be not as good since they have a big showdown on a short week Thursday night .

Lions need this win in the worst way. If they lose they drop below 50% to make they playoffs.

If Rams lose they drop below 50% to win the division from what I saw on ESPN.

Hoping for a Lions win. Should be a great game, I'd give the Lions a good shot to win.

We do need to keep in.mind with all this info there are 4 games left and things can and likely will change for some teams.

How bout those Texans !!

Rated the top team in the AFC after 13 games.

They could be in a regression spot though even though it doesn't  fit perfectly it is still the same principles that apply to regression.

 they could be worth a small play to win the AFC or maybe better just back them each game in the playoffs.

Considering they got off to a slow start and not having one of the best records but are rated the best team. this team could prove to be the surprise team of the playoffs.

Jags rate only  2.9 after 3 big wins in past 4 games, they are in a regression spot which means they are not as good as that rating and now a huge favorite because of Brady Cook. I suppose maybe somewhat justified  .

Cook needs to play TO free and Jets should be fine. 1 TO or so but start to stackTO's and obviously Jets could get routed.

Looking at games this weekend giving 3 pts for home field ..........

Packers -1.29 over Broncos

Rams -6.84 over Lions

Pats -2.27 over Bills

All pretty close to actual lines.

Although I have Pats favored VS a small dog. I suspect Pats having won the 1st game it's  tough to beat a good opp twice in the same year and the added experience of the Bills in these spots VS Pats 1st time being there with this team books making Pats the dog.

Did Pats open -1 ? Not sure but I think I saw that on you tube.