theclaw

0-1, lost 1.1 units

Crazy game. Just too crazy. I thought Packers would get a score late after Browns got their 1st score and get the cover much like I thought it could go.

My other possible plays went 4-2 on top of going 3-0 last week.

But unfortunately  I didn't  take any action.

With 1 game  the Lions at +6 remaining for tonight.

Next week starts my Bounce Factor if we have a team that qualifies. I think at least 1 should but haven't gone over things yet.

Next week also starts my other system I did talk about last season. It did go 19-13, (59%).

I may post those plays this season. The plays I made that I did not take action  did come from this method.

They can do well early as they have this year  but it is better long term to wait a few weeks.

I don't like coming in off strong records as may not be sustainable. Best to come in off 2 losing weeks then it has a strong record.

Last season I don't think it had 2 losing weeks in a row. It did have 2 weeks of a losing record and a .500 record which is a losing record over 2 weeks.

The results the next weeks was very good. 

I'll look all this up and post it later in week once I run all the numbers for any plays this weekend.

Yea I hear you ..........

I think coach Tomlin has never had a losing season with Steelers. But this team is not good. 

I suspect this will be his 1st losing season. 

Boy oh boy Pats with INT  down at the 5 yard line to end the half and now  a fumble going into the end zone at like the 1 yard line just happened as I was writing this.

That will be tough to overcome for sure.

I understand  what you are saying.............

However, I am playing my method top 3 largest performers week 1 with best bets being twam off a 10 win season. 

it is the Packers.

These teams do well ATS weeks 2 through end of season .

This is not a big regression  spot with methods I use. Mostly a trend spot and my methods beat these trend spots all the time but they do beat my methods also.

I think it is very possible the sharps will be correct that Browns play a close game but Packers will still find a way to get the close cover. May not be by alot. And it might take till later in the 4th but I think this team gets it done based on my method 

I saw on you tube that favorites -4 or better have not lost any game SU.

That is one reason favorites are covering as you said, teams win SU cover far more then not.

Only 2 teams -3 or better lost SU as well.

When the line is -3 or less the winning team covers about 90% of the time.  I once tracked it over a period of time at 95%.

How often the dog wins SU I don't know but will be many that do.

I just saw on you tube about buying 1/2 pts talking about situations it is worth doing so.

I believe buying to key numbers can be a good thing as I have lost many times by that 1/2 to a key number.

I buy only to get a push VS getting a loss.  Protecting your money is just as big even can be bigger then winning money.

I never buy to get a win VS a push Because a push protects my money.

Packers -7.5 (-105) over Browns --- 1.05 units

Looks like alot of sharps on Browns here understandable I suppose but I will keep riding this Packers team.

I was hoping to see this fall to -7 although I thought it likely wasn't  going to but you never know.

Maybe it still could right before game time. 

Well, Bills didn't get the Bator fade.

We'll see if they do it again in week 2 next year. But I doubt they will.

I did have Bills in survivor and was sweating it out with Dolphins down 7 and driving with like 4 minutes left.

All I could see was a TD and 2 pt conversion to try and win in regulation with little time left on the clock.

Bills needed a TO and got it.

I saw on you tube that teams -4 or better have won every game SU so many still alive in survivor.

I'd  expect that to change soon.

last week --- 4-0

season --- 5-3

Packers -8

Vikings -3

Patriots +1.5

Cardinals +2.5

Crazy info on the Bills.........

Incredible the Bills were a Bator method fade early in the season for 3 straight years .

And even more incredible one of the games to qualify for a fade came in week 2 in each of the 3 years.

Now look, once again in week 2 the Bills produce a 30-10 game qualifying for the first game of yet another Bator fade depending on the results of tonight's game.

So will they do it again making it 4 straight years of Bator fade involving a week 2 ?

How is that possible ?

That's quite the coincidence. 

But wait, there's more .......going back the previous year the Bills also qualified for a Bator fade in week 2 winning 35-0 but they did not complete the fade with game 3 or with game 1.

That's 5 straight years Bills have qualified for a Bator fade in week 2.

The 3 times they did qualifying they were 1-2 ATS the next week.

Crazy they did play the Dolphins in 2 of those 3 games going 1-1 ATS. I don't think you apply the method when playing a division foe.

Last season the Ravens rolled the Bills in the Bator fade spot 35-10.

If the Bills do it again next week they play the lowly Saints.

If Seahawks roll the Saints this week what will the spread be ?

That will be one of those games you close your eyes and play the Saints. You have to do it 

Thinking about this, maybe the reason my regression  indicators did well for so many years as mostly on dogs.

And it does well in week 2 for those that don't regress in week.

My method was on 3 dogs this season week 1.

Good points...................

Mahomes hasn't  been all that good ATS when over 3.5 favorite. But I think he may have improved  in that area recently.

I'd like to see Giants win SU but KC is going to be playing pretty desperate .

I saw on you tube teams 0-2 ATS are 55% in week 3.

I just heard the injuried receiver was cleared to play for KC.

I have a total of 7 plays I could make this week but probably  won't. 

I already posted 4 .........

Vikings -3 over Bengals

Zona +1.5 over 9ers

Chargers -2.5 (-112) over Broncos 

Top 5 teams in Pt's Per Plays Margin.................

1. Ravens .400

2. Packers .252

3. Zona .191

4. Rams .174

5. Chargers .158

Ravens definitely cannot sustain such a high rating. 

I wouldn't say it is enough to fade them but it points more to a fade.

When Ravens scored 40 pts VS Bills they only needed like 50 plays while the Bills needed something  like 75 plays to score 41 pts.

Bills rank 20th

Eagles 12th

KC 24th

After 4 weeks at least 3 of the top 5 usually will make the playoffs with 4 of the 5 doing it in a number of years.

Colts were no. 1 after werk 1 but dropped to I think 9th.

This is a good indicator to possible surprise teams that could make the playoffs.

I do agree with what you are saying .........however history shows that when I team can't beat another team when that team is down the team will bury them if given a chance.

Pro athletes are very ego driven to put a team in a tough spot is a very big motivator for players especially  when they can't beat them in the playoffs and now could possible give them a tough road to make it to the playoffs

Should be ................

Yep...............

I actually did well in week 2 DK .

1-0 ATS on Packers over Wash and I went 3-0 ATS on possible plays that I could of taken action.

I did have 2 dogs of the the 4 dogs that did cover.

The game really killed me in week 1 was Bears up 17-6 giving up 3 TD's in 4th.  That was my best bet of week 1 with 3 units.

Yes favorites doing very well which does happen every once in awhile. At some point things should turn though .................

Thank you .............

According to PR II Chargers should of won by 23.61 Pts. Not 11 pts.

PR I would be even a larger margin because of the complete dominate passing of Chargers. As PR I is more pass heavy while PR II is more about balance.