theclaw

My Other System  ............6-5 ATS

Zona +7.5 (-120) over Seahawks --- 1.2 units

we have a fade on Seahawhs

Power Rating II Bounce Factor ...............9-4 ATS

Saints +5.5 over Panthers --- 1.1 units

Saints in the 2cd game of the regression method.

Teams in games 2 & 3 are 2-1 ATS

Saints are in a unquie spot, coming off a beat-down they re-qualify as a PR BF Play on team.

Generally these are very good spots. Have to take it. Saints day is coming .............

these look like the best lines I could get. Based on lines and line movements in my other books.

No, KC TD now going for 2, they got it. 48 total pts. A FG make it 51.

I think bills bring it back for a score ......

Got the Bills team pts over before the start of 4th quarter..........

Hopefully they handle on for the win up 27-13 now but KC inside the 5.

Yep , even the better sports bettors who might enter that contest when they all want to lineup on the same team is usually from overreaction to recent games.

Opps there it is ..............

Dogs rolling in early games. What 5-2 ATS  i think.

PR II BF -- 3-0 ATS

teams in the first game of regression  go to 6-2 ATS.

Titans in the 2cd game.

Last week --- 4-0

Season 21-11

BILLS +1.5

Bills/KC OVER 51.5

Titans +10.5

Saints +13.5

KC has held past to opps to 7 total pts and the past 3 teams to 24 total pts.

Their best 3 game defensive  performance  was 49 pts but now they hold opps to less then half that amount.

How can this not be a extreme performance ?

How can this be sustainable ?

I see guys on you tube talking about the other KC/Bills games most games went under this current number of 52.5 .......2 games were close at 51 pts.

I looked up Mahomes as the starter, only twice in all those years has KC held opps to under 30 pts over any 3 game stretch.

Both times the game was an easy over the next game by about 7 pts and KC'S  opp went over as well.

Small sample for sure but how many times has KC'S defense held their past 3 opps to under 30 pts prior to a game with the Bills ? 

Like 0 times.

Maybe the game goes under but Bills go over is possible with a 27-20 win or 27-24 win something along these lines.

Play has to be on the OVER and Bills OVER  or no play.

Bills OVER 26.5 units .55 units

Pending plays ...........

Saints +14.5 (-118) over Rams --- .59 units

Packers -12 5 (-118) over Panthers --- .59 units

Titans +10.5 (-118) over Chargers --- 1.18 units

I do like the other plays as well but I will stay disciplined  and stick to what I normally do and not take action in the first game of the regression. 

Titans +10.5 (-118) over Chargers --- 1.18 units

Titans in the 2cd game of the regression  method.

I normally don't like to play the 1st game but this year the first game is 4-2 ATS.

It can do well in some years but not as consistent year in year out.

I decided to take 1 full unit on Titans instead of half a unit as public is way to much in love with Chargers .

Packers -12.5 (-118) over Panthers --- .59 units to win .5 units.

I'll  keep riding the Pack, Eagles on deck who knocked them out of playoffs last year maybe a bit of a look ahead spot here for Pack.

But then Packers haven't been playing that well so I'd think they could use this game for a tune-up to get back on track for Eagles.

Now, think about this ........

Titans at home , +5.5 to the Rams

+6 to the Colts

+6.5 to the Pats just 2 games ago

Now +9.5 VS Chargers.

Are the Chargers that much better then those other teams ?

That's crazy talk !!!

Again because these favorites are off an extreme performance  the books jack the lines big time.

This is another indicator that regression is coming as the books know the public is going to overreact to all these favorites winning and beating the spread by a good amount.

Heard this on you tube this morning.  

Favorites last week went 11-2 ATS that is the best record for favorites since 1985, 40 years ago.

And they covered by 7 pts a game.

Let us remember  the principal of regression, regression follows extreme performances. 

How can we have a more extreme performance ?

Dogs are coming, and when they come it will most likely be by the boatloads. Possible it could be next week but it could be this week. It should be coming soon .

Very possible many will get knocked out of survivor this week riding these big favorites.