undermysac

They're +3 and +2.5

Insanity 

I'll try Rams 2H ML(+161) for half a unit 

Rams 2H should be -2 in my guesstimation

Never hated. He's taking to great coaching very well, and benefits from a great run game.

But he's still below half the league when it comes to pure quarterback metrics. 

I don't doubt his effort and love of the game

Atta boy 

The Ravens are 6-5 in Lamar Jackson starts.

Wins vs:

Bengals, Jets, Browns x2, Vikings and Dolphins. 

He has 6 interceptions and 7 fumbles on the year.

His True comp percentage is 69.6%(#26)

He sucks under pressure, comp percentage 51.7%(#23).

He sucks from a clean pocket, completion percentage 66.7%(#21).

If you want to blitz him, go right ahead, 54.9%(#30).

So what's going on? His wr's must suck. But they are getting 2.05 yards of target separation, 3rd best in the nfl.

As a matter of fact, Lamar's "supporting cast efficiency" rating is 4.5 which is 4th best in the nfl. The Rb's, TE's and Wr's are doing their job.

What has happened to Lamar? He was great last year

I'm benching Lamar for Brady Cook 

The Bears rule out WR Rome Odunze and WR Luther Burden. Cole Kmet questionable. 

Haha yes I saw that video yesterday. More distractions hopefully 

I've had enough of Lamar Jackson when it comes to fantasy.

I lost the 1 seed soley because of him. Still in the 2 hole, so the bye was good last week.

QB's available that I'm taking serious consideration in picking up.

1. CJ Stroud: great matchup this week vs the Raiders, terrible matchup vs the Chargers week 17.

2. Bryce Young: phenomenal matchup vs the Buccaneers, terrible matchup week 17 vs the Seahawks who will have extended rest.

3. Bo Nix: home vs the Jags, @KC week 17

4. JJ Mccarthy....cough cough. But seriously he's been great in his last 2 games. @ the Giants this week, home vs the Lions week 17. The Lions secondary is crap without Brian Branch.

I think Mccarthy has been playing loosely since the Vikings were eliminated from the playoffs. But huge risk if he plays like he did before these last 2 games.

Lamar has the Patriots at home this week, then @ Green Bay week 17. That's a terrible spot even without Parsons. 

Thanks in advance 

I have to sit back and watch this one. Both teams have a lot of strengths, but the Rams have consistent strengths. 

Good news for you Chomp, there are a couple distractions for the Rams.

Sean McVay's wife just had a baby.

Short week.

Delayed flight for the Rams.

Usually McVay is great on short weeks, the dude prepares better than most coaches. Maybe the distractions this week will make it tough.

Best of Luck 

Thanks fellas, a lot of good posts here

Patriots 1H ML(+120) *1.00/1.20

Just 1 unit, going with them again here. Won't go any bigger because something just feels wrong about the line.

That's a cool find 

@theclaw

That is fair, those teams aren't good.

The thing that stood out to me was that those teams lost on the spread by an 8.08 margin. That's pretty strong to consistently lose to the market by over a td.

That trend also showed a huge amount of points allowed, an average of 31.33 ppg. That signifies a tired defense to me after altitude. Albeit, those teams having a poor defense anyhow.

It was a part of my handicap, but not all of it. We'll need a little luck too as always. 

The Patriots should really be looking for a replacement qb

Interesting info, I'm not sure how dvoa ranks compared to other metrics as I don't pay for any dvoa stuff, but I do dig into it every week. I like their podcast and am always looking at their general rankings for reference to all the other rankings.

But I have to question their stuff vs others when it comes to specifically man/zone, or other things. What I'm seeing is...

Lamar vs Man coverage: 

Comp% 54.3%(#24), passer rating 101.8(#13), catchable rate 65.7%(#22)

Lamar vs Zone coverage:

Comp% 70.1%(#13), passer rating 102.3(#4), catchable rate 77.8%(#7)

The Patriots run man coverage 29.8%, and run zone coverage 65.8% of the time.

You are correct, that's in the top 3rd of the league in man coverage percentage. But #'s show that Lamar isn't that good against man.

I would not be surprised if dvoa's stuff is a little more advanced. Or not? Who knows. Perhaps his dvoa is high against man coverage because of his running ability? The defenders have their eyes turned away from the qb in man coverage so he exploits it with his legs rather than his throwing ability?

I know that I'm ready to bench him in fantasy, he has disappointed me greatly since coming back from injury. 

@NYG4rings

 In the Bears last 3 games: vs Eagles, Packers and Browns.

6th in defensive epa per play and success rate.

7th in defensive drop back epa per play and dropback success rate.

14th in rush epa per play, and 13th in rush success rate.

1st in opponents 1st downs per game at 13.3(tied with Seattle)

3rd in opponent avg time of possession(24:47)

1st in opponents punts per play

6th in opponents comp %(57.45%)

This is since week 13. If you remember in week 12 they were without all their starting LB's vs Pitt. Also without starting CB Jaylon Johnson, and starting Nickel Kyler Gordon. But Gordon has only played in 3 games this year, he misses all the time and they can't count on him. The Bears picked up CJ Gardner Johnson in week 9 vs the Bengals. It will be his 8th start with the team.

As a team the Bears are 4th best with the least penalties per game at 4.0 the last 3 games.

Things are coming together. The Bears are gaining positive traction each and every week. Real good coaching.