NFL WEEK 15 ...........................2025

Steelers -3 (-125) over Dolphins --- .63 units to win .5 units

Zona +10 (-120) over Texans --- .6 units to win .5 units

both plays are very near BF plays with fades on Dolphins and Texans.

I can make a case to play both these although they don't fit perfectly. I won't count then on the BF official record but worth a small play.

Also interesting is Steelers like 8th in pts per plays margin while the Dolphins well back like 15th or such.

Steelers have a great shot to win the division, I think they get it done here VS Dolphins.

Based on the pts per plays margin after 6 weeks Steelers were high ranked and did deserve a play on them to win the division although I didn't particularly  believe in them at the time but the method may just prove me wrong.

My other system ..............10-7

My new BF II method .............

Both have a fade on Seahawks 

Colts +14 (-120) over Seahawks --- 1.2 units

I'll put half a unit on each method.

And Seahawks have a short week looking to playing the Rams Thursday night.

Classic look-ahead spot here although Colts could be in a tough spot with their QB.

But with 2 methods fading the Seahawks and a look-ahead spot on a short week the Colts looking in such tough shape might be perfect for Seahawks to over-look them.

Play has to be Colts or no play.

Best of luck this weekend Claw 

Jeff Sagarin makes SEA -6.48 at home hosting IND.  I don't think Daniel Jones is worth 7 to 7.5 points more than whatever QB(s) IND will use.

I haven't acted, but I like your IND play, TC.

Good luck Claw.  

Your the best claw 

Thanks .............

Interesting  dog, yea I agree to many pts.......

@theclaw

 Bol this week 

Good luck, claw

Once again, Isiah Likely will guarantee a Win for Bengals over the Ravens come sunday.

@kidd22............

@garbagetime...............

@maxwagers781...............

@SureIsRigged..............

Jets +14 (-124) over Jags --- 2.48 units

Jets ML +660 ---- .25 units

Jets 1st half +7.5 (-115) --- 1.15 units

Jets ML 1st half +380 --- .25 units

Jags not only in 2cd game of a BF fade but a re-qualify as a BF fade.

Off 3 big wins over past 4 games, 35-6, 25-3, 36-19 and coming off beating the Colts a divisional opp tied for division lead with the Jags at the time.

A very good spot to fade the Jags here.

Brady Cook maybe a little shaky at QB, a little concerning for sure. But I'll belive in the method and this spot.

Cook did finish his career 3rd in the SEC history in QB Passer rating behind  only Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels.

That looks pretty good when comparing those QB's success in the NFL.

After 13 games ..............

Power Rating I .......

1. Seahawks 11.98

2. Rams 11.82

3. Packers 8.23

4. Lions 7.98

5. Texans 7.79 ........ hey, hey look at this

6. Bills 7.45

7. Pats 6.72

8. Eagles 6.74

9. Chargers 6.35

10. Broncos 3.94 ........ hey, hey look at this

11. Jags 2.9 ...... and we getting +14 ???

Looking at games this weekend giving 3 pts for home field ..........

Packers -1.29 over Broncos

Rams -6.84 over Lions

Pats -2.27 over Bills

All pretty close to actual lines.

Although I have Pats favored VS a small dog. I suspect Pats having won the 1st game it's  tough to beat a good opp twice in the same year and the added experience of the Bills in these spots VS Pats 1st time being there with this team books making Pats the dog.

Did Pats open -1 ? Not sure but I think I saw that on you tube.

Jags rate only  2.9 after 3 big wins in past 4 games, they are in a regression spot which means they are not as good as that rating and now a huge favorite because of Brady Cook. I suppose maybe somewhat justified  .

Cook needs to play TO free and Jets should be fine. 1 TO or so but start to stackTO's and obviously Jets could get routed.

How bout those Texans !!

Rated the top team in the AFC after 13 games.

They could be in a regression spot though even though it doesn't  fit perfectly it is still the same principles that apply to regression.

 they could be worth a small play to win the AFC or maybe better just back them each game in the playoffs.

Considering they got off to a slow start and not having one of the best records but are rated the best team. this team could prove to be the surprise team of the playoffs.

Broncos definitely  not the best team in the AFC.

Pts Per Plays Margin history tells us most all SB winners are .090 or better.

Broncos .083. Close but no cigar even with a great record and season so far.

6 teams do meet the .090.

Seahawks, Rams , Colts, Lions, Pats, Packers.

Obviously Colts are toast.

Seahawks and Rams the 2 best teams. Both teams had a big week last week pushing their rating close to 12 needed to be a very good no. 1 rated team.

But this week could be not as good since they have a big showdown on a short week Thursday night .

Lions need this win in the worst way. If they lose they drop below 50% to make they playoffs.

If Rams lose they drop below 50% to win the division from what I saw on ESPN.

Hoping for a Lions win. Should be a great game, I'd give the Lions a good shot to win.

We do need to keep in.mind with all this info there are 4 games left and things can and likely will change for some teams.

Love those PR's Claw.

Fwiw, I was a big Brady Cook fan when he was at Missouri. Watched him a lot, he liked connecting with Luther Burden. 

I hope you back door this #, it's too high

 Thanks for the info. Like that Colts play. Pitt too in the cold.

Best,

RT2

Ok, took some abuse here last week for ridiculing the Colts pick after the game started..I apologize and will NOT do that again. But even before Jones went out, they were DOA mainly considering their current play, huge loss of Gardner,complete mental fear of playing Jax for a decade, etc..

This week, I like all Claw's plays, see traps in all cases..I live in the mental intangibles, key player match-ups, motivation, bad coaching..all 3 big favs listed could easily take the game for granted, their opponent will not. I like Claw's systems, I just feel occasionally, there's danger when you have my mental criteria sticking out..The Colts even blew a week 18 game in Jax a few years ago as a 17 POINT FAVORITE..with a playoff berth on the line...ain't no systems that can lead you to that

GL to all!