Balls Deep International..... No Stone Left Unturned as Atlanta and New England look to battle it out in Germany.

Falcons +7 (-130) | Berlin Game | Sunday 9:30 AM ET

I'm backing Atlanta plus the touchdown in what should be a defensive slugfest in Germany. Yeah, I know the Colts are 7-2 and averaging over 32 points per game while the Falcons are limping in at 3-5 with three straight losses, but hear me out because the numbers tell a completely different story than what the casual public sees.

First, let's talk about what Indianapolis just showed us. Daniel Jones threw three interceptions against Pittsburgh last week, matching his entire season total through the first eight games. That's not random variance, that's regression hitting hard. Jones had been playing out of his mind with a 68.8% completion rate and just six picks all year, but now he has to face the best pass defense in the entire NFL. The Falcons are surrendering just 158.1 passing yards per game, lowest in the league. They marry their pass rush beautifully with their coverage, featuring first rounders Jalon Walker and James Pearce alongside veterans Jessie Bates and A.J. Terrell in the secondary.

Speaking of that pass rush, Atlanta just destroyed Drake Maye last week with six sacks. They already have 22 sacks on the season, ranking in the top half of the league despite their record. The Colts offensive line will have their hands full, especially with the Falcons' defensive scheme that forces quarterbacks into bad decisions.

Now everyone's hyped about Sauce Gardner making his Colts debut, and rightfully so since Indianapolis gave up two first round picks to get him. But expecting an elite shutdown performance in his very first game with a new team in a new defensive system on foreign soil seems like a stretch. Yes, he held Drake London to one catch for eight yards back in 2023, but that was in a system he'd been in for over a year. There's going to be an adjustment period here.

Here's where this gets really interesting from a matchup perspective, and why I think the Colts are severely overvalued at this number.

DeForest Buckner being ruled out is absolutely devastating for Indianapolis, and I don't think the betting market has properly accounted for his absence. Buckner isn't just another rotational piece - he's the anchor of their entire defensive front. He leads the Colts defense with 24 run defense tackles and is second on the team with 33 quarterback pressures through nine games. That's elite production from an interior defender, and you simply don't replace that kind of two-way dominance.

Without Buckner clogging up the A and B gaps, the Falcons are going to establish Bijan Robinson early and often. Robinson is third in the NFL with 1,058 total scrimmage yards, and he's averaging 74.4 rushing yards per game with 463 receiving yards. The Colts rank fourth in the league allowing just 87 rushing yards per game, but that's with Buckner eating double teams and blowing up run plays before they develop. His absence completely changes the complexion of Indianapolis's run defense.

And it's not just Buckner. The Colts are also without edge rushers Tyquan Lewis and Samson Ebukam, both ruled out with injuries. That's three legitimate pass rushers off the field, which means Michael Penix is going to have significantly more time in the pocket than Daniel Jones got against Pittsburgh. Penix just came back from his knee injury and threw three touchdowns to Drake London last week. The chemistry is clearly there, and even if Gardner shadows London all game, Kyle Pitts becomes the primary option. Pitts destroys man coverage, which is exactly what the Colts run heavily - they rank 11th in defensive snaps with a cornerback in press-man coverage this season.

Let's get into the advanced metrics here because this is where Atlanta's defense really shines.

The Falcons' pass defense isn't just good by traditional metrics, it's elite when you look at the underlying numbers. They're allowing opponents just 158.1 passing yards per game, but more importantly, they're forcing quarterbacks into low-value throws. Their secondary, anchored by A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates, is exceptional at taking away the middle of the field and forcing offenses to work the sidelines where incompletions are more likely.

Compare that to what the Colts defense has been doing. They rank 26th in passing yards allowed at 244.8 per game, and their secondary has been decimated by injuries all season long. Kenny Moore and Jaylon Jones are back healthy now, but the unit has been leaking yards through the air. Indianapolis ranks 17th overall defensively at 331.8 yards allowed per game, which is thoroughly mediocre. The Gardner acquisition helps, but again, expecting him to transform the entire secondary in his first game is unrealistic.

The situational spot heavily favors Atlanta too. The Falcons are 3-1 against the spread as underdogs this season, and while they've lost seven of their last nine road games, they've only been blown out twice all year. Raheem Morris has kept this team competitive even when overmatched. They play tough, physical defense and don't beat themselves. Meanwhile, overseas games historically get sloppy with the travel and time zone adjustments, and this is the first NFL game ever played in Berlin. That uncertainty and jetlag factor traditionally helps the underdog stay within the number.

The under is 5-2-1 in Falcons games this season because Atlanta's defensive identity keeps scores low. Even if Jonathan Taylor has a big day on the ground - which I expect against Atlanta's 20th ranked run defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry - that just means more clock management and fewer total possessions. Fewer possessions benefit the underdog in a game where points will be at a premium.

Here's what really catches my eye from a betting market perspective.

This line opened at Colts -6.5 and briefly dipped to -6 and even -5.5 at some books before settling back at -6.5. Now we're seeing it push to -7, and we're getting Atlanta at plus money with the -130. That full point of value from the opening number is significant, especially when you consider it crosses through the key number of seven.

When you see a line move away from the favorite despite the Colts being 7-2 and coming off a loss where they'll be motivated to bounce back, that tells you something. The sharp money appears to be respecting Atlanta's defensive capabilities and the situational spots working in their favor. The public sees Colts 7-2, Falcons 3-5, and Sauce Gardner's debut and automatically thinks Indianapolis blowout. But the people who bet for a living are taking the points with the desperate team that has the personnel to make this a low-scoring grind.

I also love the fact that we're essentially getting a free half point with the -130 price compared to standard -110 juice. In a game that projects to be close and low-scoring, that half point matters. Games landing on exactly 6 aren't common, but getting 7 instead of 6.5 protects us if the Colts win by a touchdown, which is absolutely within the range of outcomes here.

The Colts will probably win this game straight up - they're the better team with the better quarterback and the better running back. But seven points is a massive cushion when you're dealing with two teams that prioritize defense and an international game environment that breeds chaos. Atlanta has the pass rush to get to Jones, who just showed he's human with those three picks. They have the secondary to take away Indianapolis's passing weapons. And without Buckner anchoring the middle, Robinson and the Falcons ground game will keep them in this fight.

Bottom line: I'm laying the extra juice to get the full seven with a desperate Falcons team that matches up well defensively and is catching the Colts at the perfect time. 

Gimme the Falcons +7  

Uh that's not what I said I just went through and read the whole thing and some of the things in there I did not say there's errors. But all the important things are accurate yes there's obviously no such thing as a free half point I never said that.

Be careful with AI

Jimmy's gone bananas     

New England?

Aftermarket AI 

So I have a situation where indy is my last leg of a 5 team parlay which was $50 to win $211.  Looking for creative coverage not just ML the falcons.

Any advice???  Or creative insurance that might be slightly risky?  I can parlay many prop bets on my site with totals, team totals, and buying points.

GL Stone Cold Killa !

I would request this thread get deleted. So many misleading facts. 

even the thread title is wrong

You can’t use AI for PICKS’s blindly, it’s consistently wrong about facts. For some reason, it’s not smart enough to separate seasons. 

This is fucking awesome. 

You haven't done any of these write ups have you?

Good luck on the play 

You need a hobby or lifestyle change.

JG 

Not only are the write ups AI............are you sitting down folks?......>Jimmy Gape is not real........HE IS AI

I think he said he doesnt use AI

Embarrassing

@WedgieHunters

 More AI 

@Biscuiteater1

 AI is outta control

Battle of the AI

Jimmy vs pizzaman

Round 1. Ding ding

Appreciate the write ups Jimmy. My mind works a bit like yours, the details don't matter too much. 

Very nice season so far. 

FALCONS  

Its not AI, I make my own picks. I use an app that dictates and its garbage. 

Has anyone tried to have AI blindly make your picks? Its awful.