HockeyNight11

You realize this is fake right?

Ben Johnson leaving was addition by subtraction. Cool play designer but man those two 95+ yard drives don’t happen with that gadget bum calling plays. 

Look very good, this was more impressive victories I’ve seen under Dan Campbell. We’re outgaining the Ravens by nearly 200 yards before that garbage time drive from the ravens. 

@Last2thirst

  Do we need to add some Tech futures to the portfolio? 100/1 out there and they don’t have another ranked team on the schedule. Looking good to at least make an appearance in the CFP. 

@KTriple

Tend to agree at this point. As I always say these posted numbers aren’t the gospel just a data point that’s one part of the equation for trying to pick some winners

Adding: 

New England +1.5 1u
Teaser: Jets +12.5 & Chiefs +0.5 1u

Nice week in week 4. 4-1 with game picks and 1-0 in prop picks. 

Game picks: 12-9
B1G: 3-0
Props: 2-0 

Week 5 ratings (SOS in parenthesis) 

1. Indiana (103)
2. Oregon +0.5 (119)
3. USC +6 (114)
4. Washington +12.5 (133)
5. Nebraska +13.6 (62)
6. Penn St +16 (136 -- dead last)
7. Michigan +19.5 (6)
8. Minnesota +20 (121)
9. OSU +21.8 (39)
10. Iowa +27.7 (72)
11. Wisconsin +31.9 (22)
12. Maryland +33.1 (111)
13. Rutgers +34.6 (108)
14. Purdue +38.6 (7)
15. MSU +43 (29)
16. Illinois +48.5 (21)
17. UCLA +50 (74)
18. NW +51 (16)

Second set of ratings
1. USC
2. Oregon +1.5
3. Washington +4.5
4. Michigan +4.8
5. OSU +5.7
6. Indiana +6
7. Penn St +6.3
8. Maryland +8.4
9. Nebraska +9.6
10. Iowa +10.2
11. Minnesota +11.1 
12. Wisconsin +14.4
13. Purdue +15.3
14. MSU +15.6
15. Rutgers +16.8
T16. UCLA +17.1
T16. Illinois +17.1
18. NW +18.6

Still tinkering with set number 2 but think they're useful given the absurdly wide margins on the first set which is my primary rating system. Truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of these but its good data to have and helps me to dial in on a few picks each week. 

WEEK 5 is unbelievable in this great sport, if ya got plans.... cancel em

LA Rams +4 -115 2u

@UNIMAN

Yeah you got that Mcculley prop by a toenail! 

 Lotta analysts loved Illinois this week. Overrated and the numbers back it up. Didn’t expect a 50 point drubbing but was happy to jump on that early -4!

@arubadk

 Tough way to lose the perfect week! 17-0 4Q to miss the cover by 1. That’s gambling though

@Bixby17

@MrFreedo

 
Iowa -2.5 

Indiana -4 

USC/MSU over 55.5 

Miami (OH) +2

Duke -3 

Prop: Jordan Marshall (Mich) over 35.5 rush yards  

Game picks: 4-1 (3-0 B1G)

prop: 1-0

TBD - let’s see if the Gators have a pulse tonight.

Gosh every set of numbers I had said Maryland +10 is a gift and I let it pass by because of that SOS. 

Note: SOS is probably not worth that much when you’re talking about the mid tiers of college football

@UNIMAN

Wish we could get some Hogan Hansen or Andrew Marsh props up there. 

@UNIMAN

Agree. Think with Nebraska playing as much man as they do getting Bryce on the roll outs is gonna be problematic. Just let the kid be who he is and not as predictable as Oklahoma. Never gave him a chance… run, run, pass. Difference today is the Nebraska DL is undersized. Also like Mich pass rush if they can get Raiola on the move his passing numbers are drastically worse. Puts the ball in harms way. Total show me spot for both though not worth my money today. 

Spending my week adding a 2nd AND 3rd ratings system - will test this week and see how things turn out. If it's descent will include in next weeks thread. Anyway heres the full card for the week with 2 added plays and a prop from the early week post! 

Iowa -2.5 
Indiana -4
USC/MSU over 55.5 
Miami (OH) +2
Duke -3 

Prop: Jordan Marshall (Mich) over 35.5 rush yards 

I really wanted to play Klein again, but coming back from the ankle injury. He looks good to go but another component is that Hogan Hansen is also getting healthy and played last week vs CMU. Expect we'll see more 2 TE sets from UM and given some of the OL injuries/advantages in the trenches size wise I think we may see a lot more of a heavy style of play from Michigan today. Hansen is a good pass catcher as well so expect he will take a little from Klein. Lean on the RB depth and wear down that significantly smaller Nebraska front to open things up a bit over 60 minutes. As far as the game goes, I really expect Michigan to show up today but I need to see it first. The early 2020's were cool but these aren't the same teams at all so time for this new wave to show us who they are. Same for Nebraska - are they for real or a product of the schedule? 

This is a must win on both sides for different reasons. Skubs has only allowed 5 hits to Cleveland all year I’d expect his best today again. Bibee also coming off a strong start and good over his career in Detroit. A famous BC under looks good here

@DrGame

Anybody is going to be fine throwing the ball to that group of receivers. I like Sayin really have zero reservations about him. The run game is a concerning though. It’s a different team than 2024 there is no a debate there. 

2024 first 3 games didn’t have a Texas on it but they were +372 ypg compared to 129 ypg this year so not really sure what to make of that always start slow statement. Texas is a very good defensive team. Arch was a train wreck in week 1 there’s no other way to say it & just put up an 11/25 game vs UTEP. At this point I’m not even sure he’s a major D1 caliber QB. 

@D-Town

@Bixby17

  Trying but had nothing available last week

Early bird plays for me:

Iowa -2.5 

Indiana -4

USC/MSU over 55.5 

As long as the books offer me something we will find a prop!!