HockeyNight11

@Last2thirst

 It’s really just numbers my friend. I don’t make them up they just are what they are. Simplicity is key. 

I don’t think USC is really that good so will look to fade them. Schedule has set up pretty nice for them so far - I genuinely can’t remember the last time Michigan traveled west and played well. Looked like sh*t again fundamentally. 3rd and 30 give up a 50 yard run 

Again these aren’t the gospel but if you follow over the years you’d see PenN st has had red flags all over them since day 1 this season. These two weeks aren’t really surprising that it was close (in terms of the spread) …. Surprising that they lost outright though for sure

Andrew Marsh saves the day. Huge wins on him played alternates up to 100 yards +1300 and he finished with 138. 

I think if you blindly bet the above “ratings” you would have gone 8-1 ATS in the B1G this week with the lone loss being Nebraska by 4 points. 

Impressive Indiana… they genuinely might be the best team in the conference.

3:30 

Oklahoma +2.5

Nebraska -6.5

Here's where my numbers were at coming in to week 7... remember these numbers are literally just objective data plugged into my own personal formula i use. It's net yards based theres nothing biased about this. Doesn't include the many other factors that go into handicapping a game and deciding whats a "play" or not. Obviously teams that play complete cupcakes OOC and poor conference schedules will look much better piling up stats. 

1. Oregon
2. Indiana +2.5
3. USC +7.3
4. OSU +11.1
5. Michigan +13.1
6. Nebraska +13.6
7. UW +19.8
8. Iowa +26.4
9. Penn St +28.5
10. Rutgers +29.1 
11. Maryland +31.7
12. NW +31.9
13. Wisconsin +32.8
14. Minnesota +33.7
15. Purdue +34.6
16. MSU +36.9
17. Illinois +37.1
18. UCLA +37.5

Teams that have an "outlier" type game need to be adjusted a bit... Ie Illinois getting outgained by a million @ Indiana but this doesn't reflect that at all.  

@buceye9

 Tough with Michigan. Honestly I like the team it's just an evolving thing week to week. Andrew Marsh took over as a starter a week ago, Jamar Browder should get big time reps at WR today now... theres young guys all over the field stepping into roles that will hopefully yield better results, especially in the pass game. Should be able to control the LOS and I think they have a bigger day passing (hence the prop) but the travel is no joke and I just haven't seen them play as crisp as they need to... win today and its a clear path to the playoff though IMO. 

Boy that OSU goal line defense is impressive, eh?

My numbers like Nebraska today... alot so may be on them for a play! 

Prop: Andrew Marsh over 29.5 receiving yards 

love this. Alternates as well

Way behind this week… couple early picks

UCLA +7.5

Florida St -10.5

Mizzou +3.5

few more later

Never know what offense is gonna show up for the Tigers… me personally? I like pitching in the playoffs and this is an enormous mismatch

He’s not wrong. We are dog sh*t. Really thought the bats would break out of this weeks long slump now but nope, worse than ever 

week 6: 2-4 

prop: 0-1 

Garbage sorry

Bummer had some open opps and didn’t get the ball. Big day for Marsh that’s the guy I really wanted to go after but no tuddy.

Here’s another prop: 

Andrew Marsh TD (Mich) +500

Week 6:

Texas Tech -12.5 2u

Cal +3

UNC +15.5

Purdue +7.5

AF/Navy over 50.5

Texas -4.5 2u

prop: Marlin Klein over 27.5 yards receiving

have some other leans let’s see how noon goes and the beers too 

@Hesed55

Depends. The Mariners scored 8 runs more than the Tigers over 162 games and the Tigers were ice cold for about 3.5 weeks. 

They’re total hit or miss though I agree. 

Might get Skubal twice for the Tigers in a 5 game set... that's tough to beat.

@Greengrass

Something like that  lol helps me narrow things down a bit and has been fairly successful the past few seasons. It isn’t the gospel by any means.

Game picks: 16-12
B1G: 4-3
Props: 2-0 

4-3 overall last week, did not do well in the B1G going 1-3. Does Drew Allar ever not throw a pick in a key moment with the game on the line!? Anywho... 

SOS in parenthesis 

1. Oregon (45)
2. Indiana +2.5 (75)
3. USC +7.3 (83)
4. Nebraska +8.3 (56)
5. Michigan +14.2 (11)
6. OSU +16.7 (15)
7. UW +20.4 (55)
8. Minnesota +21.7 (117)
9. Penn St +23.7 (74)
10. Iowa +26.4 (24)
11. Maryland +27 (121)
12. Wisconsin +27.3 (19)
13. Rutgers +29 (101)
14. Purdue +33.3 (10)
15. MSU +37.7 (37)
16. Illinois +40 (9)
17. NW +41.6 (32)
18. UCLA +41.6 (68)

Couple teams getting dragged here over 1 game - Illinois, OSU, Penn St... but kind of wild to see some of these numbers being spit out here. Plays to come..

Mize very good in September vs some good offenses as well. 

Like the K prop but I went 7+ for +450. Think he pitches deeper into the game than most today. Tigers bullpen has been garbage lately only a few dependable dudes. Need 6-7 innings from mize 

GL! 

Well the guards ALMOST did it again. Had a run on never getting the ball out of the infield early in the game and then almost did it again in the 9th. 

Wild how that offense won 88 games

 Skubal is a machine