Last2thirst

Yes, 0.5 -2.... IS the category but I put EVEN ...thanks for pointing that out . We have not had an EVEN yet

In some cases, @Uniman, it might mean that one sits on a line for a while yes, and I have noticed we haven't seen any late flipping in the week of lines crossing over faves.....that happens early in the week.  I look at lines at least 5x a day 

Challenge accepted! I have so far carved a good record on my matchup analysis and feel pitting OFF vs DEF etc ...and situational metrics but now I will use the data to put the brakes on or to prevent me from tapping the breaks going forward.

Will I be flexible and data driven to steer me at times, hell ya! Flexibility is key. Same for horses. But taking points is akin to have the inside  post in a horse race (inside posts mean the outside or middle horses no the gate can swarm you and block you from flow on a big track so your positioning you would think is ideal because of having to travel less than the others but you cannot generate as much speed into the turn and you get blocked off!! That is what taking points blindly is doing sometimes Spottie. ....it assumes you have an edge...not that you do anything blindly, but your HISTORICAL DATA is not performing for you maybe because teams are not constructed the way they used to be which was a patient build >>>transfers have skewed things for the flexible bettor perhaps?)

Stay tuned....because I am now going to equate results to SP+ rankings << and I update them every 2 weeks in my spreadsheet which is why it takes me longer to input, but I get a more pure idea how an overall RANK SP+ (which considers DEF prowess rank / OFF prowess rank mixing in special teams)

After that, I will look at matchups of OFF rank vs OFF rank > which lines are most effective?

And, OFF rank vs DEF rank? 

I did my prior analysis through August and reported in  forum that a better OFF than defense tended to skew results in wins record more than a strong DEF but, if one wanted to compete effectively, a strong def helped them get through to the and within the Playoffs

Its all scientific formula mix and I want to find how to perfectly put the caramel in the chocolate !  So now I am speaking your language a little Spottie? 

It most certainly is Mudhen!! 

The 'easy way' is rolling up the sleeves and finding some matchups you like and putting in the time to research to find the edge with the favorite in most cases and if you cannot, then go with your initial gut and take the pts then.....?

Ya, I hear ya. Its like that for me in horses and stocks. I can put the work into research/visualizing both but at the end of the day, the performance is out of my control!! 

Did you see my other thread with the data I complied with spreads? I am going to be adding to it soon ....that might help with an edge. It seems taking pts this has been an uphill swim for a lot of numbers 

Really Feel the Total on LSU/OLE MISS is too high = 54.5 for two defensive teams with bulls on the lines?

- Simmons is not a great thrower and LSU covers their secondary well with speed and glue on receivers....I feel for Ole Miss to have success, they will have to time their throws and that allows LSU to sit in some zone occasionally which I feel that is a recipe for some turnovers for them .... I watched Simmons sail some passes in two games 

- Nussmeir is a bit slower but need to watch some more tape

This game feels like a 27-24 or lower slobberknocker.....LSU has carved out a style and that is not to get into a scoring match like Georgia and the Vols did 

Hey Spottie, I have created a new Line Stats Thread and the results are very very compelling....

I am no longer looking at VANDERBILT as much because that line does not have a great success rate...... I still might cap it anyway

I will keep adding to this thread as the season progresses...... 

I certainly am going to pay attention to line numbers and lets see how Vegas adjusts. I think it would be hard for them to put up a bad number in those low number faves because good cappers with deep pockets will find the mistake and swing the line into where it should be I suppose 

What I have uncovered could be gold for some of you. I am afraid that if you are a points grabber, you are not going to like this data much.....

First, my data is compiled inputting every final spread result for teams in the Top 136 ranking play EACH OTHER. Games that involved a D2 team are not included.

Overall: - 157 Game results qualified and inputted  (AFTER WEEK #4 > NOTE: in some cases there are about a dozen or so teams who have only played 3 games on the season)

Favorites are: >  95 - 59 - 7 (pushes)  = 61.7% of the time, favorites are covering 

Best Lines Overall to take with Faves:

Note: numbers in brackets beside loses indicate losing outright

Even to -2 = 11- 0 

-7 to -8     = 8 - 2 (2) - 1 

-10 to -12.5 = 4 - 1 

-27 to -30  = 3 - 1 - 1

-35 to -39 = 3 - 1 - 2

-3.5 to -5 = 13 - 7 (6) 

-----------------------------

Avoid:

*** any fave side with a number -16 to -23.5 =  10 - 14 (6) << 6 x outright losses 

*** -16  to 18 is worst = 5 - 7 (4) << 4 x outright losses with that big number 

oK....putting in Week 3 and then I am placing odd covers with ranks so it may take a while. I will report when I am done if tonight or tomorrow

I stopped horses 15 min ago

Wah Wah....booked lowest payout for $130 ...I spent more than that.

oh well

Its come 8 / 3 / 5 / 7 / ?

Have $1 play (5x) to:

#3

#5

#7

#8

40 cent (2x) to:

#1

#6

Its come 8 / 3 / ? / ? / ?

I have a $1 Pick 3 open here on #34 Pays > $40/$147 as a backup and a pick 3 started 40 cent 13456/ 67 / 7 horses 

I also have a 60 cent pick3 > 156 / 156/ 3578

Will get back to answer once I get the Week 3 covers and lost covers into my data spreadsheet..... then I plan on working on Week 4 to verify if patterns are continuing.

Probably by Wed-Thurs, I might find some more...chat soon...horses tonight

Race 1 - Monday > $8 romped in 154 time and won by 5-6 lengths ....any horse came near, the horse took ....beautiful looking, good gait and very strong front shoulders 

This horse will be racing for big dough next year and might get into the OSS races and maybe even Breeders if progression keeps shaving time

This filly could do under 153 if pushed so that would place her among the best 

I keyed #8 on a $1 play and I did a 40 cent play with #4

I have pick3s with 136 and I also have a triactor as I suggested

8 / 357 / 156 /67 / 4 horses is my $1 play ....then I did a 20 center with all the same but only 124 in race 5 

Upon further inspection in Race 5....beware of #5 with Doug McNair...that was a helluva a qualifier without a great driver 

Monday night Mohawk - I will be playing

-weather indicates it will hold off rain likely until 4th-6th race 

-SW wind about 12 mph so in their face into the face around the first turn after leaving the gate and this could take a lot of sting out of horses on the outside if they get stretched 

- I like horses that know how to position in the outer flow 2nd or 1st over and make their move ...JMAC , Cullen and Henry are notorious for this kind of move ....Davis is pretty good and Borth sometimes 

Race 1 - best 2yr old is #8 but I don't know how good this #4 is...gets a great 2 yr old driver ...Jodi and Bob McClure are the two very best with young trotters and JMAC too 

UPSET > do exactor #136 with 48 or try a Tri with alll 5 horses for 3rd 

Race 2 - Have to take 4 horses here or maybe ALL 7 

I think its a race between 1357 and look at the closing time of #7 and aggressive trot driving change to Doug McNair!

Horse I would leave out is Monalishi (#1 but it has Jodi on it) who might need one race to get back to fitness....

Race 3 - 15 for sure is probably all you need, but I would add #6 on the driver change deploying Jodi to breathe life into a trotter that has a 151 win on the season

Make a Pick3 to: #36 < will pay well with first two races vs the other two

Race 4 - Feel you only need 67 ...and might suggest keying #6 between the two on one ticket if you do two because the price will be better but the horse is very close to popping at the same class level and better than #7

Longshot (add on bigger ticket 1458)

Race 5 -  Need 5 horses and you could throw in #4 on the driver change to Jodi but the horse has issues to sort out ....lots of speed in the race. I have won so much money taking #2 in the winter and he has popped at 50-1 before and won me a $4000+ Pick5 last winter or the one before ...... but its humid tonight

TAKE: 13678  or expand and add 26 for longshot

KEY > BEST 2 horses to bet flat or just gamble on they win the PICK5 > #3 has raced toughest competition and always pops when Cullen drops this horse ....good post relief also....and I love #7 because #6 is a suck along horse whereas #7 has a nose for the wire down the lane!

#8 getting lasix might be what this horse needs to take it to the next level and notice it left the gate quicker BEFORE getting lasix the last race? That is a strong signal!!!

Thank you 7272 

I fully don't expect to have people follow my plays necessarily but sometimes, a little research quip might spur an ideas someone has in looking at the game differently like taking a TOTAL instead of a side.

I lurk watching to see how you 'flip' your mind .... I love it Spottie!

I am jacked because I just got a reservation for the Breeders Crown Harness Championships in their nice restaurant with a fun couple who grew up around horses like I did. ...we just had dinner a couple weeks ago and I had no idea my wife's friend had trained horses growing up. They begged to go out for dinner and so I just got a reservation confirmed. Only a 40 minute drive for us to see the very best in N.A. horses of 2 yr old and 3 yr olds. I hope there are no killer games on the 18th or 25th but I think we are going the Friday night instead of the Saturday. I booked the Sat for now. 

BOL this week bro