Last2thirst

Hoops Time! 

Data Plays and Hunch Picks for the Non Conference Schedule and beyond

- I will be relying on last seasons input with rank sections vs other rank sections to guide me in the beginning

1U = $80

Half = $40

Data Play #1 High Point -3  (N) vs Furman x 1U

- this data rank subset when they play each other was 11 - 4 ATS last fall

Data Play #2 Western Mich -2 (h) vs Coastal C. x 1U 

-this play combo of ranks favored the home side here at 24 - 14 ATS  last fall

Data Play #3  Youngstown St +13.5 (v) vs Pitt x HALF U

-fave in this situation of ranking mismatch is only 11 - 17 ATS last fall....I like how Pitts preseason rank dropped and Youngstown's rose which convinces me further but I tend not to take too many dogs to start the season

Might have  a couple /few more tomorrow....its getting late ..... $200 laid so far 

Well, you can respect I guess.... saying sir reflects you know I am boss  

Good one  

Ok, I will stop with you now that you submitted 

Boy you are one hot mess of introspection and retrospection and very much butthurt on many threads ....... 

Get  for your Vols so you are more happy. Hey, why don't you become the coach? 

SUBMIT THIS THREAD AS YOUR RESUME 

I don't get into shit like that...I have a brain  and my job previously was to be able to keep in control....so I will spar but never try to knock out anyone, it wouldn't fair

BEST TEAMS /PLAYOFF SETUP 

Undisputed but want to see them play Hoosiers!! #1 = BUCKEYES   (BIG 10) 

- name me the SEC team that could knock off this team or Indiana?? 

#2. Indiana    (BIG 10)

#3  Texas AM    (SEC)

#4 Alabama   (SEC)

---------------In the Playoff  with this seeding in my opinion------------

5. Georgia  

6. Oregon  (has 3 tough games left)

7. Ole Miss  (no tough games left)

8. BYU     (2 tough games left to overcome)

9. Texas Tech  (Best chance to step up to beat Top 2 Conference team)

10. Notre Dame

11. Louisville   (better than Virginia on strength of defense almost elite)

12. Memphis   *strongest Group of 5 battle*

------------------- THE REST are next in line for playoffs

13. Virginia

14. Utah

15. Michigan

16. Texas 

---------------------Have a chance   

17. Vanderbilt

18. Oklahoma

19. Missouri

20. Georgia Tech

------------------------------21st  to 30+ (not true order/rare chance for Playoff)

Very Good 1-2 Loss Teams =  USC, Washington, Iowa, Miami, Cincy, Pitt, USF, Houston

Good 2 - 3 Loss Teams = LSU, Tennessee, Illinois, Nebraska, Duke, Arizona St, TCU, NW

How good are they? (zero/one loss teams) = San Diego St, James Madison, UNT, New Mexico

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BEST TEAMS /PLAYOFF SETUP 

Undisputed but want to see them play Hoosiers!! #1 = BUCKEYES   (BIG 10) 

- name me the SEC team that could knock off this team or Indiana?? 

#2. Indiana    (BIG 10)

#3  Texas AM    (SEC)

#4 Alabama   (SEC)

---------------In the Playoff  with this seeding in my opinion------------

5. Georgia  

6. Oregon  (has 3 tough games left)

7. Ole Miss  (no tough games left)

8. BYU     (2 tough games left to overcome)

9. Texas Tech  (Best chance to step up to beat Top 2 Conference team)

10. Notre Dame

11. Louisville   (better than Virginia on strength of defense almost elite)

12. Memphis   *strongest Group of 5 battle*

------------------- THE REST are next in line for playoffs

13. Virginia

14. Utah

15. Michigan

16. Texas 

---------------------Have a chance   

17. Vanderbilt

18. Oklahoma

19. Missouri

20. Georgia Tech

------------------------------21st  to 30+ (not true order/rare chance for Playoff)

Very Good 1-2 Loss Teams =  USC, Washington, Iowa, Miami, Cincy, Pitt, USF, Houston

Good 2 - 3 Loss Teams = LSU, Tennessee, Illinois, Nebraska, Duke, Arizona St, TCU, NW

How good are they? (zero/one loss teams) = San Diego St, James Madison, UNT, New Mexico

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Ya, sure I am a plant to cause fake movement with 12 000+ posts on Covers...

Thanks for the 

Forgot to mention....last year with that strong Vols defense, they got pushed around by a Buckeye team in the first round of the PLAYOFF 42 - 17 after Michigan planted a flag on Buckeyes field after losing to a flawed Wolverine team

What are you talking about???? IRISH made final last year and beat Indiana and Georgia to get there ...... hardly a powderpuff program

SEC teams did poorly....analyze how powderpuff they have become....Tennessee loses 42 - 17 to Buckeyes?? Embarrassing and the Buckeyes were wobbly going into that game losing to Michigan in BIG 10 FINAL

You don't understand.... BIG 10 is solid and would dominate SEC....maybe, maybe....1 loss for Buckeyes and they are technically in a reload/semi-rebuild themselves so no advantage except better collective talent likely...same with Indiana

I have been beating this drum for 3 yrs that a change has been happening before our eyes and I have been proven correct two years in a row, and highly likely we get a third year unless you can pontificate on the better talent and greater motivation from an SEC team because that is what its going to take. The fact that you say Vols are a flawed team and they have a winning record says a lot about the SEC  ....think about that 

Anyway, you are set in your ways and suffering so I will leave you alone now

So if Texas AM goes to Playoffs ....how are they going to do vs top BIG10 ?

How about Alabama?

The answer lies in my post above and the evidence we have seen the past couple of seasons so it filters through the SEC in general and some other conferences ....leak and cohesion + not hording the very best talents is the difference, not the coach haha.....he can't make good chicken salad if he is dealing with so-so ingredients and missing ingredients

Trying to decide which OVER I like better on Tuesday..... BODO-MONACO or PSG-BAYERN MUN.?

Here is a correlation: From 2019 - 2022 SEC has been dominant

-NIL came into being in the summer of 2021 but really started to roll in 2022 and by 2023, it was a dominant influencer, along with the portal for how teams were able to ATTRACT + RETAIN (<< probably most important ?) 

-what do I notice the most as a bettor? >> huge disparities in units of offense vs defense from year to year for a various number of reasons so whomever in the SEC can get some consistency in building/retaining coaches and units of the team, you will begin to see the SEC become the dominant league again perhaps (when I say dominant, I mean leave no doubt!)

Laying the blame on the coach here is not the way to go in my opinion, IF a program is regularly a .600+ winning % like they pretty much have been with Heupel.....the thing the Vols program needs to do along with others in the SEC and in football in general, is find a way to feed and retain their system and players with a coach ala Ryan Day and now how Curt Cignetti is showing over 2 seasons of great improvement

Somewhere in the whole coaching carousel that we are seeing in the NCAAF programs, is a formula that is flawed and rather should be addressing how programs retain talent/attract talent so that coaching philosophy and consistency could positively influence units of the team

Its really shocking to me how the Vols defense went from a Top 5 Unit to a Bottom 25% worst unit in NCAAF......

Teams should be in peak form right now .....any coaching improvements should be taking effect this past week and through this week, as we approach the first unveiling of PLAYOFF setup soon.

I think with so much inconsistency in general, across many programs from week to week, Vegas is now offering some pretty nice lines to TAKE POINTS which is turning the  for me. 

Play #1 - Mississippi St +9.5 x 1U

-still jockeying for bowl positioning

-still playing tough against good teams

-playing a team that is bent on getting the win, but not sacrificing to run up big scores in my opinion..... I actually think Kirby learned something from Ryan Day last year and it might be better to 'lay in the weeds' and unveil your full repertoire come the PLAYOFFS and just keep your team tight, but NOT dominant

Play #2 - Purdue +28.5 x HALF U

-no chance for a bowl for Purdue but they are playing with pride as evidenced by Michigan game on the road

-Buckeyes are bent on not destroying teams when on the road but rather, exerting their defense ..... I think Purdue can score 6-7 pts here ....maybe 10 at home 

- I see a final score of 35 - 7 or 35 - 6 or 38 - 10 ....you can see what they do on the road for final scores....not into the 4-'s

-if the line goes to -29 or -29.5 ...I will definitely add

Play #3/#4 - LSU +11.5 x HALF U  / UNDER 51.5 x HALF U

-will add if this line goes to -13 or higher

- if there ever was a year recently, where LSU matches up with Alabama's weaknesses well, this year is it

-LSU has the tools in the secondary and on the line to keep Simpson in check and they definitely can stop any run game

-should LSU game plan to have a two prong run attack to improve Nuss's throwing proficiency, this is the game to apply it with utilizing Harlem Berry and Durham to attack this Bama weak running defense and mix in some short passing on 2nd and 1st down occasionally to keep Bama honest 

-I like the UNDER here too and want to see if the TOTAL starts getting chewed or rises before I add......line movement from midseason onward I notice, has been close to what happens in games in the big matchups...

-I would be comfortable taking this line at UNDER 50 as Bama generally keeps opponents down when at home from scoring more than 20 and I definitely don't see them opening up well over 30 pts vs this LSU defense ....they face 2 strong defenses in a row vs LSU > then the SOONERS!

Play #5/ #6  Notre Dame -25.5 x 1U  ... this will be my only fave play that I can see a solid mismatch so far 

-will take the UNDER  if this total rises over 56

-simply put, ND's biggest threat to fall to 3 losses is their game the week after vs Pitt who has a darn good run defense but suffer in the secondary.... I expect Freeman to utilize Carr with play action liberally with success or timing passes /stretch passes against this weak Navy secondary

- this game could get ugly and I lean to ND winning by 4 TDs vs Navy gaining any traction vs this ND run defense with it being their strength this year

-in the B.C. game, you could see Freeman already beginning to plan for Pitt by attack the B.C. secondary with CJ Carr passing for one yd shy of 300

Tough loss by the hometown Blue Jays....helluva of a World Series however !! 

BEST TEAMS /PLAYOFF SETUP 

Undisputed but want to see them play Hoosiers!! #1 = BUCKEYES   (BIG 10) 

- name me the SEC team that could knock off this team or Indiana?? 

#2. Indiana    (BIG 10)

#3  Texas AM    (SEC)

#4 Alabama   (SEC)

---------------In the Playoff  with this seeding in my opinion------------

5. Georgia  

6. Oregon  (has 3 tough games left)

7. Ole Miss  (no tough games left)

8. BYU     (2 tough games left to overcome)

9. Texas Tech  (Best chance to step up to beat Top 2 Conference team)

10. Notre Dame

11. Louisville   (better than Virginia on strength of defense almost elite)

12. Memphis   *strongest Group of 5 battle*

------------------- THE REST are next in line for playoffs

13. Virginia

14. Utah

15. Michigan

16. Texas 

---------------------Have a chance   

17. Vanderbilt

18. Oklahoma

19. Missouri

20. Georgia Tech

------------------------------21st  to 30+ (not true order/rare chance for Playoff)

Very Good 1-2 Loss Teams =  USC, Washington, Iowa, Miami, Cincy, Pitt, USF, Houston

Good 2 - 3 Loss Teams = LSU, Tennessee, Illinois, Nebraska, Duke, Arizona St, TCU, NW

How good are they? (zero/one loss teams) = San Diego St, James Madison, UNT, New Mexico

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INSANE DRAMA.... !!

Bet $100 here > Just bet Arizona St in game to win by 1- 6 pts x 1U paying +333   > return $333 profit

Lost $100 > on other two exotics bets

Bet $400 in Teasers today > lost all of it keying Iowa St << its a symptom of both my selection rationale and so many teams this year being piss poor for consistency or any sense of urgency at home and with their offense....very frustrating season!

-$167 on the day

---------------------------------------------------------------still to come: 

My Plays this week laid early-midweek: 

Duke +3.5 x 1U   

Navy/N.Texas OVER 64.5 x 1U  

7 PT TEASER x 1U > Ariz St +11 with Miami -3.5 with Over Miami 43.5  

TEASER #2 x 1U > Louisville -3 with UNDER 61 with Miami -3.5   ...both Beck /Cristobal are head cases, wtf was I thinking 

Tennessee -3.5 x 1U  TBD

There is my line drop to -3 @ +95 too ....thank you! x 1 U more   

CORRECTION: - this should say: 

Just bet Arizona St in game to win by 1- 6 pts x 1U paying +333

I also did a Arizona St HALF U for win 7 - 12 pts +375

Also > Iowa St  to win by 1-6 @+ 300 x HALF U

Just bet Iowa St in game to win by 1- 6 pts x 1U paying +333

I also did a HALF U for win 7 - 12 pts +375 

Also > to win by 1-6 @+ 300 x HALF U

Jeff Sims beating Cyclones at home??? That's insane and it shows how badly this Iowa St program has degenerated this year ....give credit to Zona St defense holding Rocco B to 50 yds and keeping Hansen at RB in check for the most part

Don't like a lot of OVERS this week but for sure will play UCL ....and Data patterns next week....GL if you are betting

UCL games on Tuesday and Wednesday this week