Last2thirst

Thanks guys 

Its an interesting year to say the least. Vegas is honed in pretty well from week to week variances in play consistency. I have fallen behind on my data /stats but I plan on completing it to help me later and by the end of the season come bowl play....just for some situations because as we know, bowl motivation is so random sometimes. You could get the matchup right but not the motivation 

Family weekend and work slowing me down but the rubber this the road this week as teams for PLAYOFF really jockey now to get in and others for bowls

Just looking at line moves since the morning:

-wow ...Missouri flipped!

One more thing I notice and forgot to mention:

- teams of a bye layoff are sleepy I find ...offense not firing! 

- I notice Miss St coming down ... be careful when it comes down quite a bit  +10.5 was a good number but the lower it goes ...I don't know

Why is this USC line so high? Injury? ....yes they seem sleepy when they come east and ND is on a rip to snatch a Playoff spot but USC is now at the front PLayoff Poll position in my opinion so the motivation/focus is going to be very high and its a later night game ...so no sleepiness from real early start

UTAH-BYU ....this one should be a classic that BYU will now get a lift from their crowd after some digging deep in the 4th Q last week.... I think this is a solid spot for them unless I see Utah can stop the run very effectively ...have to dig a little

Genius!

Your ratings have had Indiana and USC at top or near it since the beginning...... I didn't doubt it but I certainly did pay for it by assuming Oregon would sustain their homefield record vs visitors at 38-1 and they did not

Keep up the great BIG10 research going my friend....you have an amazing feel and knowledge of every team's strength year after year that confounds a lot of people I notice, but then things move in that direction

Thanks Hockey  

What else I am scoping:

1. Kentucky +11.5 at home vs Texas > they always play top 5 SEC teams tough at home

2. Missouri +2 > very composed team on both sides of the ball vs a beat up team after 3 tough matches in a row

3. Wash St /Virginia Total (56.5) > we saw Cougars move the ball on an SEC team and Virginia can move the ball on any team for points so high 50's/60+ pts is likely

4. Arizona @ Houston > tough loss for Zona and Houston on the rise who can move the ball well and play defense 

5. Baylor/TCU > fireworks score?

6. UTSA/UNT > fireworks score and revenge game > pressure off for UNT and they can just keep scoring TD's at their own pace unlike the one that USF threw at their defense....UTSA and them have a history of high scoring games

7. UCONN/BC > wrong team may be favored here?

8. GTECH/DUKE > total too low? also why is GTECH not at least EVEN here?

9. Purdue/NW > NW has an offense this year ....and they play ultra tough on homefield and fans should be wild for them as a 4-2 team with good bowl aspirations with that PSU defeat!!

10. Ohio St -27.5/41.5 total..... not sure if Wisky will even score a TD on this Buckeye defense .... have to injury report 

11. TexAM @ Arkansas > tricky game for AM at that spread as Arky can put up points!

12. UNLV/BOISE > too low of a total? UNLV defense is butter !! They know how to drive the ball for sure

13. TTech @ Arizona St > I expect Zona St to put up a fight and TTech to falter at some point....is this the game?

14. Mississippi St +10 > they can score on any team they have shown/too many points?

15. UCLA -3 > team that his having fun and Nico pressing his competitive buttons now/he is thinking for his Draft marketability now/team is riding it

16. Penn St +3.5 now? This team has way too much offense in my opinion that is shackled but its the defense that has to button down when needed and yes Iowa is balanced but so are the Nittany Lions ....just needed to be set free from Franklin??

17. Tenn/Alabam +8 > where is the defense with Vols? This one should end up a one score game with their offense so one has to like this number vs a Bama defense that is very good but like Georgia, you can compete against it

Jesus, lots of 'game chedda' above to grab!!! 

I just looked into some games this morning again....and did a little comparison:

OLE MISS @ Georgia -7

-Kiffin about to find out what he has as far as moxy and toughness in a stretch that is akin of what Auburn just went through

-difference is, he has a strong offense although BOTH Chambliss and Simmons can be inconsistent ....I think the game last week was done in a way to not show anything to Georgia

-Ole Miss vs Georgia could be their season if they are going to be in the Playoff in my opinion....so I like OLE MISS here based on their secondary and ability to move the ball

PLAY #1 - get the golden number overnight and I am taking it > OLE MISS +7 x 1U

-the Georgia defense does not scare any SEC team enough that a balanced team with a good RB like Lacy could not find enough ground to move the chains when needed or get the 2-3 yds to shorten the the first down enough to give Chambliss/Simmons options to move the ball

PLAY #2 - LSU/VANDY Under 49.5 x 2U

-this is my play of the week

-LSU is consistent in their approach

-Vandy has good balance on their offense and one of their best defenses in the past couple of years

24-21 game at most and likely 21-17 score I predict for which side, I am not sure....LSU needs Durham to be healthy to allow Nuss to some time to throw on a play action 

-this should be a gritty game

I want to take Penn St ML for PLAY #3 but gonna do some more digging on the new coach and his approach with Allar and RBs...

What I put together late Saturday night: Playoff Picture 

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BEST TEAMS /PLAYOFF SETUP - as I see it looking ahead

Old King Reigns #1 = BUCKEYES   (BIG 10) 

-undisputed until they face Michigan and maybe Indiana in Big 10 Final

- only Michigan (5th or 6th best B10 team) has lost to a good team out of the Big 10 (vs Oklahoma)

#2. Miami    (ACC)

-no team in the top 4 of this conference has lost outside of their conference

#3 Texas AM   (SEC)

-has a lot of very good teams but no team has stepped up to impress out of conference or to dominate within the conference 

-one of their Top 5 teams lost to a Top 5th or lower ACC teams

#4 Texas Tech  (BIG 12)

-only one team (Cincy) has lost to an out of conference team (5th or 6th best Big 10)

---------------In the Playoff now but this will change obviously------- 

5. Indiana

6. Ole Miss 

7. Alabama

8. Oregon

9. USC

10. BYU

11. Georgia Tech

12. Memphis or USF  (best Group of 5?)

------------------- THE REST are next in line best teams/chance for playoffs

13. Georgia 

14. LSU

15. Missouri

16. Tennessee

---------------------Have a chance

17. Utah

18. Notre Dame 

19. Vanderbilt

20. Oklahoma

------------------------------21st  to 30+

 Good One Loss Teams = Washington, Nebraska, Virginia,  Cincy, USF, Tulane,  Louisville, Houston, UNT

 Good Two Loss Teams = Michigan, Texas, Illinois, Iowa, Arizona St, Iowa St, Pitt, Arizona 

Worst Undefeated team  = UNLV or Navy

How good are they? (1 loss teams) = James Madison, San Diego St.

Are many of you finding this year hard to find a team or group of teams to ride with consistent play?

This has to be one of the hardest seasons to read momentum in teams for me in a long while. And trying to figure out Totals on that basis, has become a crapshoot at times. I can do better but honestly, this is the first year for me in a long while were I shine very brightly one week and then hit the dumper hard the week after and its nothing to do with how much time I put into matchups or research on past lines.....its just that situations are becoming wildly inconsistent this year. 

LAST WEEK:

1-3 Standard Plays  (considerable time and research put in)

0-3 on Double Ups (feel/instinct bets)

Exotic Bets > start up $270 > give back $600+

Season record on Standard Plays = 24 - 21 (+2.5)

Down on exotics/Double Ups

MUST DO BETTER!

Crazy season:

-preseason had TEXAS #1

-after week 1/2, many had PENN ST #1 

Always enjoy putting this together late Saturday night as another 'wacky' week winds down....

-------------------------------------------------------------

BEST TEAMS /PLAYOFF SETUP - as I see it looking ahead

Old King Reigns #1 = BUCKEYES   (BIG 10) 

-undisputed until they face Michigan and maybe Indiana in Big 10 Final

- only Michigan (5th or 6th best B10 team) has lost to a good team out of the Big 10 (vs Oklahoma)

#2. Miami    (ACC)

-no team in the top 4 of this conference has lost outside of their conference

#3 Texas AM   (SEC)

-has a lot of very good teams but no team has stepped up to impress out of conference or to dominate within the conference 

-one of their Top 5 teams lost to a Top 5th or lower ACC teams

#4 Texas Tech  (BIG 12)

-only one team (Cincy) has lost to an out of conference team (5th or 6th best Big 10)

---------------In the Playoff--------(some from #9 - 12 fit due to conference inclusion)

5. Indiana

6. Ole Miss 

7. Alabama

8. Oregon

9. USC

10. BYU

11. Georgia Tech

12. Memphis or USF  (best Group of 5?)

------------------- THE REST are next in line best teams/chance for playoffs

13. Georgia 

14. LSU

15. Missouri

16. Tennessee

---------------------Have a chance

17. Utah

18. Notre Dame 

19. Vanderbilt

20. Oklahoma

------------------------------21st  to 30+

 Good One Loss Teams = Washington, Nebraska, Virginia,  Cincy, USF, Tulane,  Louisville, Houston, UNT

 Good Two Loss Teams = Michigan, Texas, Illinois, Iowa, Arizona St, Iowa St, Pitt, Arizona 

Worst Undefeated team  = UNLV or Navy

How good are they? (1 loss teams) = James Madison, San Diego St.

SEC ??

Your best team next to Alabama might lose to a team that came east and lost 59 - 10 North Texas?? USF just shellacked UNT last night emphatically.

And USF beat Florida?? 

VOLPLAY ....can you explain this to me instead of coming in my thread and basically shaking your finger at me ?

Its dangerous to bet SEC except for Alabama so far and I was prepared for a smash-dot-com bet at -2.5 but it never came...

They won't fire Sark... that's crazy!

His record:

Lose season ....then 12-2 and 13 - 2  and in the mix to win it all. This isn't professional sports and even if it was, the onus is on the players to execute and they will have a winning season likely. 

More Teasers: - 7 pt /$20 each

> pay $60 return per A Group win

> pay $42 return per B Group win

Key:

A Group: Oregon E  with NC State +31 with Alabama +4 with:

B Group: Oregon E with Oklahoma +8 with:

1. Ohio St. -7.5

2. Auburn +11

3. Cincy -4

4. Under 54.5 Nebr/Maryland

5. JMAD Under 52

6. UNLV Even

7. Ole Miss -25

8. Arizona +9.5

$320 more in new exotic bets...... +$270 profit from in-game UNT/USF bet yesterday

Final Double Up bet (Leg 3) = Oklahoma +1.5 x 2U

Double Up 'Action' Play - Missouri St -2.5 x HALF U   

Double Up 'Action' Play (Leg 2)  - USF/UNT UNDER 67  x 1 U   

OVER 73.5 x 3U  .....I am buying out my DOUBLE UP ...... <<< but I still have to  play a DOUBLE up tomorrow (its paid for though hehe) 

21 pts now as the Q closes ....looking for a life raft on my UNDER 

Taking OVER soon ....but they are asking for 73.5 now in game despite this turnover by USF again! Its weird, I saw UNT playing fast that last drive too.

What to do....what to do.... I figure this Q.... UNT scores here....to go up by 14....USF answers....then it grinds for another 3-10 pts more...that is a 38-45 pt HALF 

OVER 73.5 x 3U.....I am buying out my DOUBLE UP as this one has an OT feel to it ....I moved it up harder on a press and if I win, it will pay for my last DOUBLE Up

Tough matchups ....lots of play in the middle of the field and lots of turnovers.....its happening in the USF-UNT game!!

I can also see UNT slowing things down to give their Defense a blow on the sidelines....long drives ....USF plays lightning fast!!

My Plays This Weekend ( There might be 1-2 more):

Standard Plays: - grabbed these in first 24-48 hrs

Play #1 - North Texas -1.5 x 1U 

Play #2 - Alabama-Missouri Under 53.5 x 1U

Play #3 - USC -Michigan OVER 54.5 x 1U

Play #4  Hawaii/Utah St Under 58 x 1U 

-------------------------------------------------------

7 pt Teaser HALF U each except for 1st one 

Oregon -2.5 with ECU +14.5 with North Texas +5.5 

Oregon -2.5 with BWGr +15.5 with UNLV +0.5

Oregon -2.5 with Colorado +11.5 with TexAM -1.5 

Oregon -2.5 with Oklahoma Under 49.5 with NW +29.5 

.....OH, I am doing some more with Indiana down to +7  

--------------------------------------------------------

Double Up 'Action' Play - Missouri St -2.5 x HALF U   

Double Up 'Action' Play (Leg 2)  - USF/UNT UNDER 67  x 1 U  ... 

Best wishes this weekend 

Double Up 'Action' Play (Leg 2)  - USF/UNT UNDER 67  x 1 U  (lose and next action bet is 2U) 

- I see a hard fought game with its importance..... 34 - 31 at most ...and maybe 35 - 31 which is still under that total

This week LAST SEASON: = What the better teams doing in Week 7?

JMAD (h) > win 39 - 7 (Coastal)

UNLV (v) > win 50 - 34 (Utah St.)

Ariz St.(h) > win 27 - 19 (Utah)

Clem (v) > win 49 - 14 (Wake)

Alab. (h) > win 27 - 25 (S.Carolina)

Army (h) > win 44 - 10 (UAB)

GTech (v) > win 41 - 34 (UNC)

Iowa (h) > win 40 - 16 ( Washington)

Wisky (V) > win 45 - 7  (Rutgers)

Pitt (h) > win 17 - 15  (Calif.)

Penn St (v) > win 33 - 30  (USC)

Illinois (h)  > win  50 - 49  (Purdue)

Texas (N) > win  34 - 3  (Oklahoma) 

Irish (h) > win 49 - 7  (Stanford)

BYU  (h) > win 41 - 19 (Arizona)

Georgia (h) > win  41 - 31  (Miss St)

Tenn (h)  > win  23 - 17 (Florida)

LSU (h) >  29 - 26 (4OTs - Ole Miss)

Oregon (h) > 32 - 31  (Ohio St.)  <<<< maybe this explains the dropping line with Indiana?

Reason for the post....in many instances, if you like the team and they have a strong record but facing a line of -7 or lower vs a rival or even -14 to -21 vs a weaker team, many of those lines covered this week....best team showed up in Week 7 (2024) in almost every instance ...

Give me -2.5 on Bama FFS!!! I will smash it and like my chances

If Missouri beats Alabama given how they improved, then we will know exactly how the worm has turned in the SEC and Missouri should be in consideration for Top honours for SEC!! Alabama must win with 1 loss already, to secure their place I believe ....to be considered top SEC seed when all is said and done because:

-I don't expect TexAM to go winless

-I don't expect Ole Miss to go winless

-I don't expect Oklahoma to go winless

.....and therefore, it comes down to who scalped whom in Committee's eyes 

TOP 5  Conference seeds are automatic (right now and after week 7)  > Ohio St or Oregon , Miami, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and likely Memphis as 5th best conference seed 

People have to realize now, the COMMITTEE is about 2 weeks away from setting their Playoff seeds 

Under the gun to take care of Playoff Seeding Business:

Alabama and Missouri

Tulane, South Florida and USF in a dogfight with Memphis (Tulane as well if they can knock off Memphis as a road dog) for that 5th best Conference winner seed 

Oklahoma 

Texas AM

Arguably, BYU and Utah as well..... whomever wins that battle coming up could fill a void if TTECH falters but they have quite a good favorable schedule including, hosting BYU 

Notice he is still worried about getting whacked?  

Tony is watching you.... cannot fail Marone!! Don't piss in a bag... 

Congrats !! 

Was watching  the scoreboard last night as I got my NFL ML bet on the Giants with Jaxon Dart at the helm.... this is the time of the year in both NFL and NCAAF you can snag a nice longshot when people least expect it