Last2thirst

Play #2 - Miami +3 x 1U  (coinflip game in my opinion/ no thoughts on Total)

-been waiting for AM to falter all year long .....remember, they were 'sort of' in a re-build but had nice pieces that really came together and Reed really pulled the train for them to get to 10 wins with great talent on defense buying into the mojo

-that S.Carolina game was an eye-opener and Miami has a nasty defense with a chip back on their shoulder and this could be the deciding factor....looking around the season as it unfolded.....we are back to good offensive teams with great defenses taking over and beating close opponents like in years past. Ducks scores are a good example....Indiana and Buckeyes when they play strong teams

- SEC football is in transition this year in my opinion...its strong but lacking killer instinct (Georgia 2nd half of season excluded from that assessment).... Cristobal has put together an SEC type of team in my opinion with ample speed and size ....will HE get in the way of this game? I like Elko as a coach much better but I can honestly say, this is a coinflip game and I think Miami is going to make a statement breathing a sigh of relief that the Committee is confident in them over Notre Dame getting the nod to play this game...... I do not think Tex Am could beat ND and that would have been a high scoring game but this one, I am not so sure....and I think Miami will be in this one down to the wire, but know I will be betting on Texas AM late in-game if they have the lead ....I do not trust Carson Beck to drive down the football field down by one score late in the game....I think Miami will have the lead late in the game and hang on....or just get bumped late but not by 4 pts 

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I am pretty sure we will see blowouts in the other two games....

-Ole Miss has the best chance to cover their line in my opinion with a powerful/angry display of football showing both Kiffin that he is an a-hole for abandoning them.....and their crowd that they are not just another 3rd best SEC team but better than that and a real contender with all the talent they have on both sides of the ball

Ducks are definitely a sleeper with a talented team and great coach ....they are the 'Buckeyes' of last year and will need Dante Moore to act like Howard did last year and take some risks with his legs and out of the pocket where he is dangerous throwing on the run...... and they could upset any team that has too many turnovers 

-now that I see JMAD lost by 14 to the Cardinals, it supports that I believe they can score 13-14 pts on the Ducks defense but Oregon's offense should be able to get 35 or more on their homefield letting their hair down and sending a message

-I actually think it would be BEST to show more variety of plays from Lanning on offense to give TTECH a lot to think about for their matchup as TTECH's schedule did not really include a lot of teams with dynamic athletes using the full field opening up gaps on their defense which is fast and great....BUT.... speed athletes can exploit those gaps and Moore and company have that ability when they open things up with their playcalling ....rarely did we ever see TTECH defense look out of position so if you can do that, some of their athletes might over play their position or begin to develop doubt in their ability

TOTAL looks tasty ...... 38 or 41 pts for Ducks - 13 pts for JMAD puts the game

Play #3 > Ducks-JMAD OVER 46 x 1U

Play #1 - Oklahoma -1 x 3U 

- I really really like Simpson as a QB and think he will be good in the NFL .... I really liked DeBoer at Washington and how he prepared his team.....but there is something funky going on with his team management and decision making since coming to Bama. I watched Bama hold back key players in one game (almost lost with Playoff invite chances on the line) and then vs Texas, they seemed uninspired 

-Mateer impresses me a lot and I think with Concepion at WR, he has someone with dynamic hands and 'getting open' ability to be the guy that they need to get the ball into scoring position....OKLAHOMA also have one of the BEST FG KICKERS in college football and I think that will be a factor .... I can see a 10-13 pt first half for the Sooners with the lead and turnovers giving them FG chances in the second half with ball control playcalling forcing Bama to play from behind much of the game and swimming uphill vs one of the greatest defensive coaches at home with crowd and a killer unit to support his playcalls from the sidelines

- Venables stat: - perfect 5-0 on his career if calling defensive plays and is now, when facing a team a second time in his career

- add the homefield in a sport that means as much to Sooners fans as it does to Tide fans...... too many edges tilt toward Sooners in my opinion vs taking a talented Crimson Tide team that seems 'off' as the season winds down

Total: I want to go OVER on this as all PLAYOFF games hit > 45 pts in the first round last year BUT..... with a strong FG kicker for the SOONERS and defense....I think Venables will push the field position mantra the whole game and put the pressure on Bama to defeat their defense and home crowd so ....can see a 13 - 7 first half or 13-10 score.....and then Bama scores 1 TD only playing behind and taking risks to catch up or take lead but NO FGs in second half and Sooners score 2-3 FGs or 2 FGs and 1 TD.....FINAL TOTAL will end at 37-39 in my opinion, which is why VEGAS did not risk putting this at 42/42.5 area I think

Ding Ding 

Gonna be selective for a while because I am switching philosophy to Conference Play and data from last year.....soon

Excited about one play on Wednesday that is a low line....

Wagner -4.5 x 2U

- play one of the 5 worst teams

- #21 three point team who scores over 72 per avg playing at home vs a team scoring 58+ points and one of the worst 3pt and FT teams in NCAAB

-Wagner is on the rise so ride them vs a team with little talent not going anywhere

WOW (throwing my hands in the air)  ...picking offensive teams that all of a sudden cannot make shots!!! (when I bet them....they don't score in the second half ...its weird)

Shocked by the BUFFALO collapse.... I will throw out suggestions...but no more plays for me unless it absolutely rocks my socks off .... up by 19 at half and Buffalo gonna lose here by 3-5 pts to a team that is far superior on offense and analytics...wow this line is a shocker

Nice little FADE PLAY at 4pm > FLORIDA GULF COAST +15.5 x 1U

- New Mexico has played an SOS 120 ranks stronger BUT.....they have scored 6 pts less per game on offense and FGCU has only allowed under 1 pt more on Defense

-this is a DOUBLE FADE on my correlations.... SPREAD is weak record and a team ranked 41 - 65 is only  15 - 35 ATS when they play a team that is ranked 151 - 190th which is FGCU at #172! 

3pm

W.Mich-Iowa Over 137 x HALF U

-TOO LOW!

- W Mich and Iowa score around 75 pts each per game and WMU has excellent FT stats and outside shooting so I expect them to score 62-68 pts..... Iowa almost upset Iowa St and yes they will play good defense at times but not when they get a 15-20 pt lead  and WMU is a sneaky team

Thanks Sausage!! 

I am stoked to have 2 great correlation charts that I can get to more plays and quicker ....find the sweetspots which pretty soon, I think I am going to cut back and press more like Buffalo, or higher, on some days

Thanks, I did not notice. I played it in Kings 

Liking this RADFORD UNDER  154 x HALF U at 230 pm

- Coppin scoring 61.5 pts per game but giving up a whopping 25 pts more to other team....they show terrible shooting stats but so does Radford which does better but not by much....Radford also a good offensive rebounding team which means they can keep possession longer and should control this game with a better defense

2 pm Games:

High Point with 20+ pts better on offense and almost 100 ranks better for Strength of Schedule..... -11 seems high but it likely will translate with App St only scoring 65 pts on avg and giving up almost 8 pts more 

- not playing due to Buffalo press play...don't feel like chasing big road fave spreads but line is do-able based on analytics

Campbell -7.5

-100+ ranks higher 

- 200+ ranks stronger schedule so far

- 10 pts on offense better but give up more points and that is probably due to considerably tougher SOS

(SOS strength and better rank + better offense tends to translate into -1 per 30-40 SOS improvement so Campbell with homecourt and stronger SOS should cover this line alone)

-3 - 0 home vs dog at 0 - 4 on the road 

- taking this one in Kings Of Covers contest

I absolutely love my new system....I can chew through games a lot quicker and it looks like I am hitting some good PLAYS that I might miss from lack of time ...BUFFALO up by 20 pts last I looked and they were a +1 dog 

Forgot to mention: - the other thing that stands out between Buffalo and ECU is the fact that their SOS is similar 

-Buffalo = 317th strongest schedule

-ECU = 299th 

Now compare their records !

Play #3 - Buffalo +1 x 3U

-WRONG TEAM is favored for a lot of reasons.... I am taking a stand on this one!!

- Buffalo is 94th for pts against and shoot in the Top 100 for 3pt, FG and FT ...and also defensive rebounding

-ECU is not a good shooting team and they give up a lot more points than they score...they are 10 pts below Buffalo in pts per game on offense output avg (68 pts vs Buffalo 78 per game)

-Buffalo with +6 pt differential, ECU with -10.5!! 

I say jump on this one but I have been cold the past couple of days but when I take time off, things like this one jump off the page on pure analytics.....and it helps that Buffalo is 3 - 0 on the road, 9-1 on the season and ECU is 3-7 with worse stats 

Sunday Play #1 - MD Shore/VTECH Over 138.5 x HALF U

- MD Shore is an improving team that is still terrible, but their pt differential is only -15-16 pts .....VTECH's pt differential is in the +9-10 level but a much tougher schedule

- VTECH is a strong scoring team at home and should hit 85-94 pts scored.....I expect MDShore to get their 55-59 pts as usual and sometimes they go higher ...

-3 pt shooting for VTECH is good and FT is not terrible....MD shooting is NOT terrible

Play #2 - Over Iowa St 144.5 x 1.5 U 

-like this one better than the one above

- Iowa St is #1 three point and #3 FG shooting team in the land....they under performed vs Iowa and I expect them to let their hair down and get their stroke back to score easily over 90 pts and likely over 100....they put up 130+ on a weak team before 

-E. Illinois can score 60 pts but lower the expectation to 55 pts ....Iowa St does give up points and are rated a good defense, but not great 

-even on my low expectation for each team, this goes OVER !

More to come....want to pitch these first

I will be doing some plays today....I used Friday and Saturday to get my SOS - Point Differential alphabetical chart organized which allows me to analyze point differential very quickly now since they are in alpha order, plus....separated by positive PT differential and negative differential.

I am now going to add their Free Throw % and 3 Pt success% together to provide the other main factor when I match up two teams....and this helps with TOTALS and determining the covering of bigger spreads especially in Conference Play which will be my next thread.

Conference Play has sort of started already with Michigan and Maryland playing last night and some others here and there....FT shooting becomes a huge factor and poor 3 pt shooting if a road team means lines can be covered easier as well.....also you find edges in factoring point differential + those 2 factors to send a 'maybe play' into a strong candidate

I plan to finish my SOS for all 365 teams updated ...and also get the FT% done.....

I will provide the best 20 teams based on Point Differential + SOS + FT + 3PT which is all I care about as a bettor ....who cares about what COACHES or AP Poll or Massey or whatever.....they have their own determinations, I have mine 

Right now, just based on SOS/Pt Differential, the 3 strongest teams are: - this will be in flux constantly as stats change 

#1 Michigan

#2 Duke  << I expect them to fall as their Free Throw shooting the last few games has been garbage!

#3 Iowa St

Plays to come later beginning to use this faster system that can now ALSO align with my Rank Correlation System to strengthen it...been dabbling a lot in the last month, but the PT was never complete and constantly in flux. Now after 7+ games under their belt, teams are beginning to even their flow on offense and defense for stats

One thing I can tell you I notice as I change scoring for and scoring against numbers, SCORING is coming down and expect some UNDERS more but also realize come Conference Play, some matchups will send numbers over the TOTAL from rivalry free throw hacking all the way to the final seconds just to set the tone for the next match up....and Conference Play results matter a lot in the big picture of the NCAAB tourney too 

Mark of a great team....Iowa St wins by 40 against a good team the other night....come out very flat tonight and NOW DOMINATE THE FIRST 4 MINUTES to go 14 - 0 to start the second half...WOW!!

We don't talk about yesterday 

Teams ranked 66-90th are 25 - 6 ATS when favorite vs a team ranked 121 - 150th

-been waiting all afternoon for this line to come down to make it more palatable 

Syracuse -12.5 x 1U

Iowa St Over 140.5 x HALF U

87 - 86 Fresno with 7 seconds left...not sure who has the ball

2 - 4 -1.5 U to the Duquesne game ...got my ass whooped there so I did another unit on Fresno and an in game ML bet when they were down by 8 pts and now its tight with 3 minutes left

This could be a ship to BET365 if I don't pull this out...now 2-5 -3.5 U with 3 U on this game that could pay back and even me up with that moneyline play ingame

1 - 5 Trending -3.5 U....ouch

3 - 5 down HALF U is best I can hope for unless I decide to double up on Fresno....will notify later

I wish I would have pulled the trigger on my best ranking and spread correlation hands down but Purdue has been stung lately....coughing up leads in 2nd half for ATS losses....they were -20.5 and the spread for their ranks was 20-5 ATS and the rank combo was 19-5 ATS correlated....didn't want to blurt it out but should have closed my eyes and played it