L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

Hoops Time! 

Data Plays and Hunch Picks for the Non Conference Schedule and beyond

- I will be relying on last seasons input with rank sections vs other rank sections to guide me in the beginning

1U = $80

Half = $40

Data Play #1 High Point -3  (N) vs Furman x 1U

- this data rank subset when they play each other was 11 - 4 ATS last fall

Data Play #2 Western Mich -2 (h) vs Coastal C. x 1U 

-this play combo of ranks favored the home side here at 24 - 14 ATS  last fall

Data Play #3  Youngstown St +13.5 (v) vs Pitt x HALF U

-fave in this situation of ranking mismatch is only 11 - 17 ATS last fall....I like how Pitts preseason rank dropped and Youngstown's rose which convinces me further but I tend not to take too many dogs to start the season

Might have  a couple /few more tomorrow....its getting late ..... $200 laid so far 

L2T......

 BOL

IAdecimal5 

Floridaman 

All the best this season....

I am hoping my effort from last year will spill over into this year. I think I am going to marry this year's stats and just continue each year ATS vs the spread:

My cutoffs for correlations between different rank categories are:

#1-20

21-40

41- 65

66 - 90

91 - 120

121 - 150

151 - 190 

191 - 230

231 - 280

281-330

331+

Ranks in DRatings are used/updated every 1-2 games  and cross referenced fave vs the opponents rank zone and ATS stats are kept after each week 

Best combos in Non -Conf Play to xmas-holiday season were:

21 - 40  fave  vs  121 - 150       (8 - 2 ATS)

281 - 330  fave   vs  281 - 330  (27 - 14 ATS)

121 - 150 fave   vs  281 - 330   (22 - 12 ATS)

151 - 190 fave   vs  151 - 190  (20 - 12 ATS)

66  -  90  fave  vs    121 - 150  (11 - 4  ATS)

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WORST:

151 - 190  fave  vs  331+ rank team  = only 11 - 30 ATS

91 - 120  fave   vs  151  - 190  team = 14 - 25  ATS

66 - 90  fave   vs  231  - 280  team  = 7 - 21  ATS 

There are more...... but that is the kind of thing I am looking at when I cross reference

Drake swimming uphill vs N.Arizona  > this combo is 10 - 19 ATS 

7pm:

S.Miss +3 @ Buffalo > fave is 2 - 7  ATS only when 331+ is fave playing a 280-330 team ....not a play > also fave at -3 is only 7 - 10 ATS with that spread range

Akron as fave #101 is 14 - 10 ATS when playing a team ranked 121 - 150 > but only 26 - 36 ATS in this spread number rang

Bowling Green up against it @ 221 fave facing a 256 opponent ....this only covers 23 - 32 ATS and, spread of -4 only 31- 39 ATS

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I think I have found my 4th PLAY > South Alabama +2.5 x 1U and HALF U moneyline @+135

-preseason #114  underdog @ home team #236 preseason

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Scouring for more value here ....after I got home from work in the past 45 minutes and by the way....I played Western Michigan as one play, AND I looked at spread correlation and when a team ranked 281 - 330 is -0.5 to -2.5, they hit 25 - 16 ATS

730 pm > Play #5  - Seton Hall -13.5 x HALF U 

-fave is 22 - 12 ATS with this ranking correlation AND ..... 19 - 12 ATS with a spread -11 to -15

8 pm  Play #6 - UCF -9.5 x  1U

-fave at rank #81 is 22 - 12 ATS when facing a team ranked 181 - 230th AND..... 24 - 12 ATS with a spread of -6 to -10.5

.....might have more....getting some very favorable ATS rank alignments

There are probably 1-3 more pieces of fruit hanging on the tree from 8 - 11 pm games but I think I am going to spend my time looking at tomorrow....it takes a long time to get these matchups correlated .... 6 plays tonight is enough

Day 1 Results:

Data Play #1 High Point -3  (N) vs Furman x 1U  

Data Play #2 Western Mich -2 (h) vs Coastal C. x 1U  

Data Play #3  Youngstown St +13.5 (v) vs Pitt x HALF U  

Data Play #4 > South Alabama +2.5 x 1U   and HALF U  moneyline  (ML Play) @+135 

DATA PLAY#5  - Seton Hall -13.5 x HALF U  

DATA Play #6 - UCF -9.5 x  1U   ....second half to commence /up by 4 pts   TBD

4 - 1  +3 Units  (Data Plays)

1- 0   Moneyline (ML Plays ) = +$54 profit

That's a pretty good start for not reading any matchups, looking at any polls or being influenced by touts..... 

I just relied on last year's hard work in compiling my data over the fall and winter....I will add to it all results to compile 2 years of data but I am happy with how its already bearing fruit

Working on tomorrow and might have some bets set before I go to bed 

Tuesday: Data Plays /Hunch Play

Hunch Play #1 TOTAL Play - Nichols St /Kentucky OVER 151.5 x 1U

- Kentucky hit 100 pts regularly and this team is even more high powered potentially

- Nichols St is decent and improved their rank down to #179 rank << very sneaky and how do you get an improved rank? BETTER SHOOTERS!

Data Play #1 - Stanford -11 x 1.5 U

-sublime data stats ATS for both record vs rank differences AND 24 - 12 ATS with a spread of -10 to -15.5 

Data Play #2 - ECU -7.5 x 1U

-2 strong correlations on both rank difference and spread

Data Play #3 - Wichita -7.5 x HALF U

-usually a strong home team and very good correlation ATS stats 

Data Play #4 - Nevada -9.5 x HALF U

- good correlation stats for ranks and spread

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Really Like but watching lines.... good or bad correlations

Valpo -7.5

Kansas St -15.5 << want to fade this matchup potentially

WVU -18.5 (jumped -2 already) > not a good correlation in this matchup of ranks and spread

Oregon -12.5 < shouldn't this line be higher ??