L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

Hoops Time! 

Data Plays and Hunch Picks for the Non Conference Schedule and beyond

- I will be relying on last seasons input with rank sections vs other rank sections to guide me in the beginning

1U = $80

Half = $40

Data Play #1 High Point -3  (N) vs Furman x 1U

- this data rank subset when they play each other was 11 - 4 ATS last fall

Data Play #2 Western Mich -2 (h) vs Coastal C. x 1U 

-this play combo of ranks favored the home side here at 24 - 14 ATS  last fall

Data Play #3  Youngstown St +13.5 (v) vs Pitt x HALF U

-fave in this situation of ranking mismatch is only 11 - 17 ATS last fall....I like how Pitts preseason rank dropped and Youngstown's rose which convinces me further but I tend not to take too many dogs to start the season

Might have  a couple /few more tomorrow....its getting late ..... $200 laid so far 

L2T......

 BOL

IAdecimal5 

Floridaman 

All the best this season....

I am hoping my effort from last year will spill over into this year. I think I am going to marry this year's stats and just continue each year ATS vs the spread:

My cutoffs for correlations between different rank categories are:

#1-20

21-40

41- 65

66 - 90

91 - 120

121 - 150

151 - 190 

191 - 230

231 - 280

281-330

331+

Ranks in DRatings are used/updated every 1-2 games  and cross referenced fave vs the opponents rank zone and ATS stats are kept after each week 

Best combos in Non -Conf Play to xmas-holiday season were:

21 - 40  fave  vs  121 - 150       (8 - 2 ATS)

281 - 330  fave   vs  281 - 330  (27 - 14 ATS)

121 - 150 fave   vs  281 - 330   (22 - 12 ATS)

151 - 190 fave   vs  151 - 190  (20 - 12 ATS)

66  -  90  fave  vs    121 - 150  (11 - 4  ATS)

--------------------------------------------

WORST:

151 - 190  fave  vs  331+ rank team  = only 11 - 30 ATS

91 - 120  fave   vs  151  - 190  team = 14 - 25  ATS

66 - 90  fave   vs  231  - 280  team  = 7 - 21  ATS 

There are more...... but that is the kind of thing I am looking at when I cross reference

Drake swimming uphill vs N.Arizona  > this combo is 10 - 19 ATS 

7pm:

S.Miss +3 @ Buffalo > fave is 2 - 7  ATS only when 331+ is fave playing a 280-330 team ....not a play > also fave at -3 is only 7 - 10 ATS with that spread range

Akron as fave #101 is 14 - 10 ATS when playing a team ranked 121 - 150 > but only 26 - 36 ATS in this spread number rang

Bowling Green up against it @ 221 fave facing a 256 opponent ....this only covers 23 - 32 ATS and, spread of -4 only 31- 39 ATS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think I have found my 4th PLAY > South Alabama +2.5 x 1U and HALF U moneyline @+135

-preseason #114  underdog @ home team #236 preseason

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scouring for more value here ....after I got home from work in the past 45 minutes and by the way....I played Western Michigan as one play, AND I looked at spread correlation and when a team ranked 281 - 330 is -0.5 to -2.5, they hit 25 - 16 ATS

730 pm > Play #5  - Seton Hall -13.5 x HALF U 

-fave is 22 - 12 ATS with this ranking correlation AND ..... 19 - 12 ATS with a spread -11 to -15

8 pm  Play #6 - UCF -9.5 x  1U

-fave at rank #81 is 22 - 12 ATS when facing a team ranked 181 - 230th AND..... 24 - 12 ATS with a spread of -6 to -10.5

.....might have more....getting some very favorable ATS rank alignments

There are probably 1-3 more pieces of fruit hanging on the tree from 8 - 11 pm games but I think I am going to spend my time looking at tomorrow....it takes a long time to get these matchups correlated .... 6 plays tonight is enough

Day 1 Results:

Data Play #1 High Point -3  (N) vs Furman x 1U  

Data Play #2 Western Mich -2 (h) vs Coastal C. x 1U  

Data Play #3  Youngstown St +13.5 (v) vs Pitt x HALF U  

Data Play #4 > South Alabama +2.5 x 1U   and HALF U  moneyline  (ML Play) @+135 

DATA PLAY#5  - Seton Hall -13.5 x HALF U  

DATA Play #6 - UCF -9.5 x  1U   ....second half to commence /up by 4 pts   TBD

4 - 1  +3 Units  (Data Plays)

1- 0   Moneyline (ML Plays ) = +$54 profit

That's a pretty good start for not reading any matchups, looking at any polls or being influenced by touts..... 

I just relied on last year's hard work in compiling my data over the fall and winter....I will add to it all results to compile 2 years of data but I am happy with how its already bearing fruit

Working on tomorrow and might have some bets set before I go to bed 

Tuesday: Data Plays /Hunch Play

Hunch Play #1 TOTAL Play - Nichols St /Kentucky OVER 151.5 x 1U

- Kentucky hit 100 pts regularly and this team is even more high powered potentially

- Nichols St is decent and improved their rank down to #179 rank << very sneaky and how do you get an improved rank? BETTER SHOOTERS!

Data Play #1 - Stanford -11 x 1.5 U

-sublime data stats ATS for both record vs rank differences AND 24 - 12 ATS with a spread of -10 to -15.5 

Data Play #2 - ECU -7.5 x 1U

-2 strong correlations on both rank difference and spread

Data Play #3 - Wichita -7.5 x HALF U

-usually a strong home team and very good correlation ATS stats 

Data Play #4 - Nevada -9.5 x HALF U

- good correlation stats for ranks and spread

--------------------------------------------------

Really Like but watching lines.... good or bad correlations

Valpo -7.5

Kansas St -15.5 << want to fade this matchup potentially

WVU -18.5 (jumped -2 already) > not a good correlation in this matchup of ranks and spread

Oregon -12.5 < shouldn't this line be higher ??

There is a saying around me and my betting friends..... HUNCHES GET PUNCHES >> case in point 

Hunch Play #1 TOTAL Play - Nichols St /Kentucky OVER 151.5 x 1U  

**only 7 pts scored after 6 minutes gone 

2-2 last night on Data Plays

0-1 Hunch Plays (0-1 Totals)

----------------------------------

Season now > 6 - 4 Data Plays 

----------------------------------

Teams that have really improved their preseason rank from my last rank measure in March 2025:

Movers: Lower rank -  (Current rank in brackets)

-Siena - (#127) -120 Siena Saints
-Bowling Gr - (#221) -69 Bowling Green Falcons
-NC State - (#30) -67 NC State Wolfpack
-Boston - (#231) -56 Boston University Terriers
-Delaware - (#209) -53 Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
- Tulane - (#98 ) -43 Tulane Green Wave
-Seton Hall - (#128) -42 Seton Hall Pirates
-Buffalo - (#300) -40 Buffalo Bulls
-Connecticut - ( #4 )-37 Connecticut Huskies
-Miami - (#117) -36 Miami Hurricanes
-UTSA - (#188) -33 UTSA Roadrunners
-Northern Arizona - (#219) -33 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
-Hampton - (#202) -32 Hampton Pirates
-Loy-Chic - (#76) -31 Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Just one play so far Wednesday:

Data Play #1 Loyola Marymount -8.5 x 1.5 U

-when these two rank correlations play each other, the ATS is 22 - 12 ATS in favor of lower rank and 30-22 with a spread between -6 to -10.5

2 

Day #1 ATS record =  63 - 45 (all games)

Day #2 ATS record = 10 - 10 

Day #3 ATS record = ? 

I like North Dakota St as my ML PLAY OF THE DAY +110 x 1.5 U 

- they have a much higher rank than their opponent and actually played a strong game on one of the toughest home courts in the NCAAB > they only lost to the BEAVERS by 2 pts!!

HUNCH PLAY #1 - New Mexico -22 x HALF U  and Play #2 OVER 145.5 x HALF U 

-very tough home court and most years they score a ton of points.... TEX Commerce getting more love than I think they normally do at the start of the season so probably have some shooters

Hunch Play #3 - North Alabama +24.5 x HALF U

- decent team ranked 164th which is top half of full NCAAB team list and so they must be able to put up some points....I can see them scoring over 65 pts but will Miss St score 90??

Rough one...lost by HALF pt  > DATA PLAYS now 6 - 5 

Hunch Plays = 1 - 1 - 1

Scanning today for good situations of the following: - updated my charts

1 - 20th >  play 91 - 120th

21 - 40th > play 121 - 150th 

66 - 90th > play 121 - 150th

121 - 150th > play 281 - 330th

281 - 330th > play 281 - 330th

-------------------------------------------------

Fading these spread numbers:

-6 to -15.5 > teams ranked 231st - 280th

-11 to -20.5 > teams ranked 151 - 190th 

-2.5 to -0.5 > teams ranked 121 - 150th 

-21 to -25.5 > teams ranked 91 - 120th

-16 to -20.5 > teams ranked 66th - 90th

-------------------------------------------------------

Day #1 ATS record =  63 - 45 (all games)

Day #2 ATS record = 10 - 10 

Day #3 ATS record = 8 - 6

Today ?

So what happens when 300th ranked team plays 313th rank team? 

-are they both crazy good offenses?

- can one team score over 95 pts?

-can both teams score over 90 pts?

This total is completely bonkers >> TOTAL PLAY UNDER 188.5 x 2U  LIU-IUPUI < I'll take a stab they go UNDER that!

Data Fade Plays: - HALF U each

1. N.Florida  +41.5 > they are ranked 270th so they will be able to score over 60 

2. Central Conn +9 > their ranks are dead even between these two teams (1 pt difference)

3. Cal North +9.5 > rank difference is only 13 ranks and to start season, spreads from -6 to -10.5 are not covering well so far

4. St Francis +29 > St Francis is not in the top 50 worst teams 

5. TexAMCC  +23.5 > this is a 180th ranked team facing a SMU squad in a down year in my opinion

Good favorite home team value based on correlation: - not playing these today (but you might) as I have my TOTAL play and 4 above for value 

Xavier -24.5

B.C.   -16

Auburn -23.5 

N.Texas -11.5  strong defense + capable offense at home

Loy Chic -22  will make some noise this season and have dominating moments like tonight

Other Totals I really like: - not playing more totals than the one play I have (you can try)

Under 154 Drake

Under 138  N.Texas 

Under 162.5  TexAM

Over 146.5  N.Dakota > this court is always explosive ....two decent teams 

L2T......

Funny ending in the last 2 minutes....it felt like a fix to the UNDER but I was ok with that 

> TOTAL PLAY UNDER 188.5 x 2U  LIU-IUPUI

Data Fade Plays: - HALF U each

1. N.Florida  +41.5   

2. Central Conn +9  

3. Cal North +9.5  

4. St Francis +29    

5. TexAMCC  +23.5   

IDEAS:

Good favorite home team value based on correlation: - not playing these today (but you might) as I have my TOTAL play and 4 above for value 

Xavier -24.5  no

B.C.   -16   

Auburn -23.5  

N.Texas -11.5  

Loy Chic -22   not looking good .... lost first half and down already to start 2nd

Other Totals I really like: - not playing more totals than the one play I have (you can try)

Under 154 Drake   no > OT spoiled it

Under 138  N.Texas   

Under 162.5  TexAM   no 

Over 146.5  N.Dakota  no

You cannot plunge too deeply in the first 2 weeks until preseason rankings and assessments get settled.........lots of big spreads covered and OVER totals for teams in the Top 50 but like always, Vegas makes adjustments

3 - 3 on the day but +1.5 U gain

Looking at tomorrow's games using my correlations .....

Friday  DATA Play correlation: - lots of games tomorrow and this is the ONLY one that has a very strong correlation and double correlation that is very favorable

LIBERTY -7.5  x  3U 

- teams ranked 66 - 90th are 14 - 14 ATS when facing a team ranked 121st - 150th 

*** also, teams ranked 66 - 90th are  25 - 13 ATS when spread is -6 to -10.5

I do have another strong correlation play for Friday ....but no line posted yet!!

Coastal Carolina @ Northern Colorado

Just noticed....its Colorado Christian playing Northern Colorado ...same colours and same logo....wild

Only one primo play today and that was LIBERTY ....and I see it got whacked all the way to -10!

Only play of the day....up by 20 with a minute to go...

Friday  DATA Play correlation: - lots of games tomorrow and this is the ONLY one that has a very strong correlation and double correlation that is very favorable

LIBERTY -7.5  x  3U  

- teams ranked 66 - 90th are 14 - 14 ATS when facing a team ranked 121st - 150th 

*** also, teams ranked 66 - 90th are  25 - 13 ATS when spread is -6 to -10.5

---------------------------------------------------------------------

9 - 8 Data Comparison Plays  +4 Units

- I feel like my work is going to bear fruit

Other types of plays > exotic/totals/ML.... I am around even....my focus is DATA plays using rank correlations AND spreads to further enhance it

@Last2thirst