Took the day off to watch College Football and it was joyous......omg the games were great!!!
Sunday:
Play #1 - Alabama Under 169.5 x 2U
- Alabama has to score and be motivated to.... 105-110 pts to lose my play, in my opinion
- UTSA with a weak offense with FG% and 3pt% in the 300's ranking in each category
-UTSA is ranked highly for defense so I expect they will focus on that and likely only score 55 - 65 pts tops
- Alabama has played a tough schedule and before it, played North Dakota with a similar team to UTSA and beat them 91 - 62 on home court with a 170.5 total
.....if UTSA hits 65 pts, Bama would have to hit 105 to beat them
I think I have at least a couple more but getting this one in as it stands out to me....
Took the day off to watch College Football and it was joyous......omg the games were great!!!
Sunday:
Play #1 - Alabama Under 169.5 x 2U
- Alabama has to score and be motivated to.... 105-110 pts to lose my play, in my opinion
- UTSA with a weak offense with FG% and 3pt% in the 300's ranking in each category
-UTSA is ranked highly for defense so I expect they will focus on that and likely only score 55 - 65 pts tops
- Alabama has played a tough schedule and before it, played North Dakota with a similar team to UTSA and beat them 91 - 62 on home court with a 170.5 total
.....if UTSA hits 65 pts, Bama would have to hit 105 to beat them
I think I have at least a couple more but getting this one in as it stands out to me....
-Towson started the year very defensive but playing powderpuff teams...when they play higher scoring teams like UCF, they know they have to up their offensive output and UCF is a beast of an offensive team, especially at home traditionally
Nevada @ Washington St x HALF U 149.5 OVER
-Nevada is the better team and Cougars like to run up and down the court taking quick shots and Nevada is going to have to run with them and they will change from their ball control /take the best shot style of keeping games Under this total
LEAN >>> Gonzaga -46.5 x HALF U or Over 167.5 if you feel Gonzaga will score 105 - 110 pts in this one
-N.Florida defense is an abomination frankly and I see no reason to doubt Gonzaga will put up triple digits.....and their defense is so strong ....I doubt a weak UNF offense vs good teams will score more than 55 here ....they lost 104 - 64 to Florida and by 30 to Tennessee
Watching this line carefully and will make a play on it later
-Towson started the year very defensive but playing powderpuff teams...when they play higher scoring teams like UCF, they know they have to up their offensive output and UCF is a beast of an offensive team, especially at home traditionally
Nevada @ Washington St x HALF U 149.5 OVER
-Nevada is the better team and Cougars like to run up and down the court taking quick shots and Nevada is going to have to run with them and they will change from their ball control /take the best shot style of keeping games Under this total
LEAN >>> Gonzaga -46.5 x HALF U or Over 167.5 if you feel Gonzaga will score 105 - 110 pts in this one
-N.Florida defense is an abomination frankly and I see no reason to doubt Gonzaga will put up triple digits.....and their defense is so strong ....I doubt a weak UNF offense vs good teams will score more than 55 here ....they lost 104 - 64 to Florida and by 30 to Tennessee
Watching this line carefully and will make a play on it later
Best line Monday in my opinion from analytics is Charles Southern -10.5 x 1 U... I see a 19+ point differential vs SC St. + home court advantage and much stronger offense/defense
Best line Monday in my opinion from analytics is Charles Southern -10.5 x 1 U... I see a 19+ point differential vs SC St. + home court advantage and much stronger offense/defense
Michigan will DESTROY Villanova in my opinion.... Michigan -15.5 x 2U and OVER 149.5 x 3U
-why is this total so low when Villanova's offense output/shooting stats is strong ....BUT the main reason I love it is they are 200+ for FG% allowed and 364th vs 3 PT vs opponent!!!
- I rate them #1 overall based on who they are beating and how....statistically, they do everything very well
Michigan will DESTROY Villanova in my opinion.... Michigan -15.5 x 2U and OVER 149.5 x 3U
-why is this total so low when Villanova's offense output/shooting stats is strong ....BUT the main reason I love it is they are 200+ for FG% allowed and 364th vs 3 PT vs opponent!!!
- I rate them #1 overall based on who they are beating and how....statistically, they do everything very well
Did I mention teams ranked #1 - #20 are19 - 10 ATS vs teams ranked 21 - 40 over the past two seasons in Non Conference play.....and Michigan is playing at home which is one of the best home courts in college b-ball
Did I mention teams ranked #1 - #20 are19 - 10 ATS vs teams ranked 21 - 40 over the past two seasons in Non Conference play.....and Michigan is playing at home which is one of the best home courts in college b-ball
Tuesday: Michigan will DESTROY Villanova in my opinion.... Michigan -15.5 x 2U and OVER 149.5 x 3U -why is this total so low when Villanova's offense output/shooting stats is strong ....BUT the main reason I love it is they are 200+ for FG% allowed and 364th vs 3 PT vs opponent!!! - I rate them #1 overall based on who they are beating and how....statistically, they do everything very well -their defense is as strong as their offense! I expect both numbers to go up.... 102 - 78 win for Michigan
I have this backward. I just laid the bets. It should read:
Tuesday: Michigan will DESTROY Villanova in my opinion.... Michigan -15.5 x 2U and OVER 149.5 x 3U -why is this total so low when Villanova's offense output/shooting stats is strong ....BUT the main reason I love it is they are 200+ for FG% allowed and 364th vs 3 PT vs opponent!!! - I rate them #1 overall based on who they are beating and how....statistically, they do everything very well -their defense is as strong as their offense! I expect both numbers to go up.... 102 - 78 win for Michigan
I have this backward. I just laid the bets. It should read:
-Florida is a crash the boards and put in easy buckets type of team...their outside shooting is terrible (358th 3 pt shooting) and they face one of the strongest overall teams and best defenses in the country
-Lean to the UNDER but I think that 146 number is spot on....if it climbs, I will buy a HALF U
-Florida is a crash the boards and put in easy buckets type of team...their outside shooting is terrible (358th 3 pt shooting) and they face one of the strongest overall teams and best defenses in the country
-Lean to the UNDER but I think that 146 number is spot on....if it climbs, I will buy a HALF U
Its early but .....MICHIGAN is a SMASH DOT COM play if you have ever watched them.....Jesus they are relentless and talented.
I started chuckling when I saw the -15.5 number when posted and had to play it right away...generally, I do not playing the Top 20 teams much until we get to end of Feb and into March but had to play it!!
I sure hope we see a March Final of Duke vs Michigan!!
Its early but .....MICHIGAN is a SMASH DOT COM play if you have ever watched them.....Jesus they are relentless and talented.
I started chuckling when I saw the -15.5 number when posted and had to play it right away...generally, I do not playing the Top 20 teams much until we get to end of Feb and into March but had to play it!!
I sure hope we see a March Final of Duke vs Michigan!!
My bank account has been growing nicely since the -6 U night a couple weeks ago..... I got down to +12.5U by then but now I have doubled that number and more after tonight:
My bank account has been growing nicely since the -6 U night a couple weeks ago..... I got down to +12.5U by then but now I have doubled that number and more after tonight:
Just starting to get into game comparisons for Wednesday:
Total Watch:
Liberty/NC State - Liberty is one of the 5 best pure shooting teams in college and they face a good NC State offense who give up 3pters and easy buckets at times ranked 289th and 150th for FGs.....
-153 seems to me ....lets see where it is in the morning
Maine-Boston - I feel Boston is comfortable playing a half court game when they face a similar opponent, and scores tend to be in the 50's and 60's usually..... 132 might be too high BUT looking into Boston defense and tendencies when they play
Jackson St - Houston 139 ....I recall remembering Jackson St scoring only 35 vs a good team and also atypically, Houston allowing over 60 pts to a weak offense...... if we get Houston playing with purpose, they should not allow Jackson St to score more than 50 exactly ....will Houston score 89 or feel the need to with their style of play??
Spreads:
Bryant @ Iona.... Bryant was one of the highest scoring teams last year but not so much this year but Iona can rip some high scores....I feel this line at -10.5 means Bryant might hold down the hometown to a defensive game? I doubt it
By the way....I am starting to notice the X-FACTOR in some matchups this year is FREE THROW SHOOTING in critical times....so pay attention to this stat more for some edges or going UNDER totals more going forward. There are some really high level teams with very poor FT shooting I have noticed ....Duke comes to mind recently
W.Kentucky +1 @ Marshall.....the wrong team might be favored here....looking into this one too
Nebraska +1 vs Wisky...year after year, they are a beast at home and this time is their best in a decade so .....I really am looking hard at home dog here
Just starting to get into game comparisons for Wednesday:
Total Watch:
Liberty/NC State - Liberty is one of the 5 best pure shooting teams in college and they face a good NC State offense who give up 3pters and easy buckets at times ranked 289th and 150th for FGs.....
-153 seems to me ....lets see where it is in the morning
Maine-Boston - I feel Boston is comfortable playing a half court game when they face a similar opponent, and scores tend to be in the 50's and 60's usually..... 132 might be too high BUT looking into Boston defense and tendencies when they play
Jackson St - Houston 139 ....I recall remembering Jackson St scoring only 35 vs a good team and also atypically, Houston allowing over 60 pts to a weak offense...... if we get Houston playing with purpose, they should not allow Jackson St to score more than 50 exactly ....will Houston score 89 or feel the need to with their style of play??
Spreads:
Bryant @ Iona.... Bryant was one of the highest scoring teams last year but not so much this year but Iona can rip some high scores....I feel this line at -10.5 means Bryant might hold down the hometown to a defensive game? I doubt it
By the way....I am starting to notice the X-FACTOR in some matchups this year is FREE THROW SHOOTING in critical times....so pay attention to this stat more for some edges or going UNDER totals more going forward. There are some really high level teams with very poor FT shooting I have noticed ....Duke comes to mind recently
W.Kentucky +1 @ Marshall.....the wrong team might be favored here....looking into this one too
Nebraska +1 vs Wisky...year after year, they are a beast at home and this time is their best in a decade so .....I really am looking hard at home dog here
- BC scores last and have to fight home court ....only half of what UMASS has for a point differential....UMASS has been steadily improving their stats
- BC scores last and have to fight home court ....only half of what UMASS has for a point differential....UMASS has been steadily improving their stats
- Texas St favored but they only score 67 but have pretty good defense.... Southern scores 10 pts more ....so watch for Texas St to hold Southern to around 68-72 pts and score 76-82 pts themselves against a horrid Southern defense that allows 92.7 pts against their opponents
- Texas St favored but they only score 67 but have pretty good defense.... Southern scores 10 pts more ....so watch for Texas St to hold Southern to around 68-72 pts and score 76-82 pts themselves against a horrid Southern defense that allows 92.7 pts against their opponents
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and ALabama -32.5 x 1U 
(road avg)
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