L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

Delaware - GW Over 152.5 x 1U

- I feel like smashing this one ....I know GW will get their 91-95 pts ....and Delaware had a very disappointing rivalry game recently and they will enjoy trying to get their shooting going in an open game where GW allows over 80pts per game....I figure Delaware will hit their 70 avg and GW also....still space to allow one team to falter, but I doubt both

My Play of the Day:

Duquesne +13.5 x 2U

- this team scores 85 per game (drop of 4 pts) and gives up 80.....Boise has had a tougher schedule but the 75 pts per game means they can up their output, but are they really going to hold Duquesne down to 72 pts here, if they up their output to 85 per game????

I say NO!

-the OVER looks appealing too, but I like the 13.5 ....that should be gold 

If the Duquesne game is looking decent for me at the half or just before, I will be laying Fresno -1 x 1U .....and it the Duq game looks sour, I will be doubling that number up to -2 

@Last2thirst

 Liberty is playing at NC State

Ya, good point. I was mixing up games there..... Thanks for pointing that out 

1 - 5 Trending -3.5 U....ouch

3 - 5 down HALF U is best I can hope for unless I decide to double up on Fresno....will notify later

I wish I would have pulled the trigger on my best ranking and spread correlation hands down but Purdue has been stung lately....coughing up leads in 2nd half for ATS losses....they were -20.5 and the spread for their ranks was 20-5 ATS and the rank combo was 19-5 ATS correlated....didn't want to blurt it out but should have closed my eyes and played it

2 - 4 -1.5 U to the Duquesne game ...got my ass whooped there so I did another unit on Fresno and an in game ML bet when they were down by 8 pts and now its tight with 3 minutes left

This could be a ship to BET365 if I don't pull this out...now 2-5 -3.5 U with 3 U on this game that could pay back and even me up with that moneyline play ingame

87 - 86 Fresno with 7 seconds left...not sure who has the ball

We don't talk about yesterday 

Teams ranked 66-90th are 25 - 6 ATS when favorite vs a team ranked 121 - 150th

-been waiting all afternoon for this line to come down to make it more palatable 

Syracuse -12.5 x 1U

Iowa St Over 140.5 x HALF U

Mark of a great team....Iowa St wins by 40 against a good team the other night....come out very flat tonight and NOW DOMINATE THE FIRST 4 MINUTES to go 14 - 0 to start the second half...WOW!!

I will be doing some plays today....I used Friday and Saturday to get my SOS - Point Differential alphabetical chart organized which allows me to analyze point differential very quickly now since they are in alpha order, plus....separated by positive PT differential and negative differential.

I am now going to add their Free Throw % and 3 Pt success% together to provide the other main factor when I match up two teams....and this helps with TOTALS and determining the covering of bigger spreads especially in Conference Play which will be my next thread.

Conference Play has sort of started already with Michigan and Maryland playing last night and some others here and there....FT shooting becomes a huge factor and poor 3 pt shooting if a road team means lines can be covered easier as well.....also you find edges in factoring point differential + those 2 factors to send a 'maybe play' into a strong candidate

I plan to finish my SOS for all 365 teams updated ...and also get the FT% done.....

I will provide the best 20 teams based on Point Differential + SOS + FT + 3PT which is all I care about as a bettor ....who cares about what COACHES or AP Poll or Massey or whatever.....they have their own determinations, I have mine 

Right now, just based on SOS/Pt Differential, the 3 strongest teams are: - this will be in flux constantly as stats change 

#1 Michigan

#2 Duke  << I expect them to fall as their Free Throw shooting the last few games has been garbage!

#3 Iowa St

Plays to come later beginning to use this faster system that can now ALSO align with my Rank Correlation System to strengthen it...been dabbling a lot in the last month, but the PT was never complete and constantly in flux. Now after 7+ games under their belt, teams are beginning to even their flow on offense and defense for stats

One thing I can tell you I notice as I change scoring for and scoring against numbers, SCORING is coming down and expect some UNDERS more but also realize come Conference Play, some matchups will send numbers over the TOTAL from rivalry free throw hacking all the way to the final seconds just to set the tone for the next match up....and Conference Play results matter a lot in the big picture of the NCAAB tourney too 

Sunday Play #1 - MD Shore/VTECH Over 138.5 x HALF U

- MD Shore is an improving team that is still terrible, but their pt differential is only -15-16 pts .....VTECH's pt differential is in the +9-10 level but a much tougher schedule

- VTECH is a strong scoring team at home and should hit 85-94 pts scored.....I expect MDShore to get their 55-59 pts as usual and sometimes they go higher ...

-3 pt shooting for VTECH is good and FT is not terrible....MD shooting is NOT terrible

Play #2 - Over Iowa St 144.5 x 1.5 U 

-like this one better than the one above

- Iowa St is #1 three point and #3 FG shooting team in the land....they under performed vs Iowa and I expect them to let their hair down and get their stroke back to score easily over 90 pts and likely over 100....they put up 130+ on a weak team before 

-E. Illinois can score 60 pts but lower the expectation to 55 pts ....Iowa St does give up points and are rated a good defense, but not great 

-even on my low expectation for each team, this goes OVER !

More to come....want to pitch these first

Play #3 - Buffalo +1 x 3U

-WRONG TEAM is favored for a lot of reasons.... I am taking a stand on this one!!

- Buffalo is 94th for pts against and shoot in the Top 100 for 3pt, FG and FT ...and also defensive rebounding

-ECU is not a good shooting team and they give up a lot more points than they score...they are 10 pts below Buffalo in pts per game on offense output avg (68 pts vs Buffalo 78 per game)

-Buffalo with +6 pt differential, ECU with -10.5!! 

I say jump on this one but I have been cold the past couple of days but when I take time off, things like this one jump off the page on pure analytics.....and it helps that Buffalo is 3 - 0 on the road, 9-1 on the season and ECU is 3-7 with worse stats 

Forgot to mention: - the other thing that stands out between Buffalo and ECU is the fact that their SOS is similar 

-Buffalo = 317th strongest schedule

-ECU = 299th 

Now compare their records !

@Last2thirst

2 pm Games:

High Point with 20+ pts better on offense and almost 100 ranks better for Strength of Schedule..... -11 seems high but it likely will translate with App St only scoring 65 pts on avg and giving up almost 8 pts more 

- not playing due to Buffalo press play...don't feel like chasing big road fave spreads but line is do-able based on analytics

Campbell -7.5

-100+ ranks higher 

- 200+ ranks stronger schedule so far

- 10 pts on offense better but give up more points and that is probably due to considerably tougher SOS

(SOS strength and better rank + better offense tends to translate into -1 per 30-40 SOS improvement so Campbell with homecourt and stronger SOS should cover this line alone)

-3 - 0 home vs dog at 0 - 4 on the road 

- taking this one in Kings Of Covers contest

I absolutely love my new system....I can chew through games a lot quicker and it looks like I am hitting some good PLAYS that I might miss from lack of time ...BUFFALO up by 20 pts last I looked and they were a +1 dog 

@Last2thirst

 High Point is a neutral site.

Missed the Buffalo play! Thats a sexy looking half time score lmao. GL Last, get it. 

Thanks, I did not notice. I played it in Kings 

Liking this RADFORD UNDER  154 x HALF U at 230 pm

- Coppin scoring 61.5 pts per game but giving up a whopping 25 pts more to other team....they show terrible shooting stats but so does Radford which does better but not by much....Radford also a good offensive rebounding team which means they can keep possession longer and should control this game with a better defense

Thanks Sausage!! 

I am stoked to have 2 great correlation charts that I can get to more plays and quicker ....find the sweetspots which pretty soon, I think I am going to cut back and press more like Buffalo, or higher, on some days

3pm

W.Mich-Iowa Over 137 x HALF U

-TOO LOW!

- W Mich and Iowa score around 75 pts each per game and WMU has excellent FT stats and outside shooting so I expect them to score 62-68 pts..... Iowa almost upset Iowa St and yes they will play good defense at times but not when they get a 15-20 pt lead  and WMU is a sneaky team

Nice little FADE PLAY at 4pm > FLORIDA GULF COAST +15.5 x 1U

- New Mexico has played an SOS 120 ranks stronger BUT.....they have scored 6 pts less per game on offense and FGCU has only allowed under 1 pt more on Defense

-this is a DOUBLE FADE on my correlations.... SPREAD is weak record and a team ranked 41 - 65 is only  15 - 35 ATS when they play a team that is ranked 151 - 190th which is FGCU at #172! 

Shocked by the BUFFALO collapse.... I will throw out suggestions...but no more plays for me unless it absolutely rocks my socks off .... up by 19 at half and Buffalo gonna lose here by 3-5 pts to a team that is far superior on offense and analytics...wow this line is a shocker

WOW (throwing my hands in the air)  ...picking offensive teams that all of a sudden cannot make shots!!! (when I bet them....they don't score in the second half ...its weird)

Excited about one play on Wednesday that is a low line....

Wagner -4.5 x 2U

- play one of the 5 worst teams

- #21 three point team who scores over 72 per avg playing at home vs a team scoring 58+ points and one of the worst 3pt and FT teams in NCAAB

-Wagner is on the rise so ride them vs a team with little talent not going anywhere