Here's The Deal ..................2008 -2024, as of Nov 1st each year
12 of 17 teams won the SB were in top 5.
2 teams won in surprise teams from WC round era, 2011 Gmen and 2012 Ravens.
So 12 of 15 years.
KC in 2023 was 7th, Denver 2015 was 6th but a defensive monster not well balanced.
And Eagles last year who did not start playing well untill all their injuried players return VS Giants like week 5 or 6.
So if you want to back a Team to win SB better off taking a top 5 team above.
15 teams to make the conference finals not ranked in the top 10 in 17 years. 22% chance.
But 4 teams came in the 2 covid years 2020 & 2021 and 4 teams came in the surprise teams from the WC round era.
So 7 teams in 10 years 17.5% chance if not in the top 10 by nov 1st.
But 7 of the 10 years 1 team not in the top 10 did make the conference finals.
Let's dig deeper .................
Only 6 teams made the conference finals in 17 years rated below .025.
And 3 of those 6 came in the 2 covid years with no fans in the stands and players opting out.
So we have 3 teams rated .025 or below mak8ng the conference finals in 15 years .
If you want a team not in the top 10 then you have 3 choices since 1 team does make it to at least the conference finals in 7 of 10 years, Texans, Eagles or Bucs
Then you could have hedge possibilities.
Now, here's the real Deal .................
Teams in conference finals better by .075 as of Nov 1st are 17-10-1 ATS (62.5%).
But remember I did talk about teams over .200 not being good plays in the playoffs.
Of the 10 ATS losses 6 of those came at the hands of backing a team .200 or better.
That makes it a sizzling 17-4-1 ATS.
Colts at .272 are the highest ranking team in those 17 years.
Incredible yes but not a team I want to back come playoff time.
Teams .200 or above playing a team below .200 are 1-6 ATS in c9nference finals.
one last thing.............
All 34 teams to make the SB were above .030.
Even the teams in surprise teams from WC round era.
So taking a low rated team at this point in the season is suicidal, just say no !!!
Yea I know, close your eyes and make the play. Don't watch the game just wake up the next day and check the score, no need to go through the brutal sweating with such a team.............
Ha, ha
Possible but he did play 5 weeks and Ravens were .061 which would rank 13th. Maybe another 2 or 3 games they would rank higher.
But they were over the .030 threshold of teams making the SB.
I do agree injuries could very well matter.
But if we look back at those 17 years no team under .030 made the SB I'd have to think there would have been a good number of teams with similar injuries that failed to make SB.
You have to use judgment on that.
Eagles last year with multiple injuries ranked .058 but not QB injuried.
If a team is good enough to make the SB or even make conference finals they'd need quality players that should be able to produce a minimal .030 or .025 needed too make conference finals without the QB for 2 or 3 games.
I did look a little bit into 2cd half performance, Eagles finished the year .112 so big improvement 2cd half. They'd need some like like a .160 in 2cd halfor better to bring the .o58 to that .112.
Then I looked at the few teams made conference finals under .025. they did improve 2cd half but not by much and of course did not make SB.
Those teams might be better judged by 2cd half performance.
No but very close 2 pts away.................
But holding opponents to 9 pts or less back to back games has a losing ATS record the next game. This according to what I saw on you tube.
KC held opps to 7 or less back to back, not a team to back.
Bills or pass.
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