That, as they say, is why they play the games. After an utterly lopsided loss in Game 1, the Dallas Wings roared back to even the series against the Connecticut Sun in dominant fashion.
Now for the second time in as many days, we have a win-or-go-home game in the WNBA playoffs. The controversial new playoff format sees the lower-seeded Wings with home-court advantage, as they try to pull off an incredible upset against the Sun.
While this has been a series of wild swings, our WNBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, August 24 think that Connecticut rights the ship in Game 3 of Sun vs. Wings.
Sun vs Wings Game 3 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Most books are making the Connecticut Sun anywhere between -5.5 and -6.5 favorites. The total has been set at between 165.5 and 164.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Sun vs Wings Game 3 predictions
Predictions made on 7/24/2022 at 3:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sun vs Wings info
• Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
• Date: Wednesday, August 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Sun vs Wings series odds
Sun: -240
Wings : +200
Sun vs Wings betting preview
Key injuries
Sun: None.
Wings: Arike Ogunbowale G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Sun are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Wings.
Sun vs Wings Game 3 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
After a clinical Game 1 performance, the Connecticut Sun were M.I.A. in Game 2, as the Wings got off to an early lead and never looked back. Now, Connecticut finds itself in the unenviable position of playing for its season on the road, despite finishing ahead of Dallas in the standings. While anything can happen in a single elimination scenario, we can still learn from the prior games in this series to help us find value in Game 3.
So, what happened in Game 2? It can be dangerously simplistic to dismiss any single performance as the result of shooting variance, but that was certainly a major factor. Dallas shot 11-26 from three, or 42.3%, to the Sun’s 4-14, or 28.6%. The difference in volume is reason to give Connecticut bettors like myself pause, but then this is nothing new for the Sun. Connecticut shot the second-fewest 3-pointers per game in the regular season, and it did nothing to dent their 105.8 offensive rating (tied for second-best in the “W”).
In stark contrast to their usually stellar offense, the Sun scored just seven points in the first quarter of Game 2, the second lowest point total for a quarter in WNBA playoff history. Despite a late charge in the fourth quarter, they never recovered from that slow start. Watching the game back, some of this was absolutely due to the greater urgency and physicality the Wings played with, knowing they were on the brink of elimination.
But it must also be said that the Sun simply missed a lot of shots they normally make, both in the first quarter and throughout the game. They also committed multiple turnovers that had little to do with Dallas’ ball pressure. They played an uncharacteristically sloppy game, and Dallas capitalized.
Much has been made of the Wings' decision to change their starting lineup and bench Teaira McCowan in favor of the smaller and more agile Isabelle Harrison. But in truth, the Wings played just as well, if not better, with McCowan in the game. They had great success feeding her in the low post, and she totaled 17 points and 11 rebounds off the bench.
While they marginally outperformed the Sun in terms of raw rebounds and assists, so much of it really did come down to shot-making. For that reason, I think this line has strong value for the Sun. One hiccup does not undo a season’s worth of consistency, and Connecticut has been the better squad all season long.
Prediction: Sun -5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
It should speak volumes about how the totals have been set in this series so far that, despite the Sun opening with a seven-point quarter, and the Wings closing with a 13-point one, that the Over easily cashed in Game 2.
Even given a slow pace, these were two of the four best offenses in the regular season, and both had been playing in high-scoring games down the stretch prior to the playoffs. The Over is 4-1 in the Wings’ last five, and it’s 5-1 in the Sun’s last six. Given those strong and mutually impactful trends, this total being set just a half point higher than the mark for Game 2 is a bit puzzling, and an opportunity for bettors.
The Sun offense simply will not be worse than it was last game, and the Wings have proven that they’re capable of manufacturing a solid volume of 3-point shots. I’m not expecting the Wings to shoot the lights out again, nor am I discounting the possibility, but they’ve demonstrated that they can find gaps on the perimeter and score enough against the Sun to make me comfortable with the Over.
Prediction: Over 164 (-110 at betway)
Best bet
While nobody could have predicted the wild swings this series has taken through two games, books and bettors are seriously overcorrecting after a shocking Game 2 result. The Sun are still the vastly superior team in talent and roster cohesion and the natural letdown after a performance like Game 2 will hurt the Wings early in Game 3. It’s of course possible that Dallas simply catches fire again from deep — it took both that and the Sun laying an egg on offense to create the gap for the Wings to win Game 2.
It's a strange situation though, with the Wings playing at home to advance as the lower seed. Home court advantage is typically estimated at between two and three points in the NBA, and because the WNBA plays FIBA-style 40-minute games, the equivalent number is likely just under two points. In essence, the Wings are getting credit for being three points better than they were in Games 1 and 2 in this series when the Sun were -11 to -11.5 point favorites.
I don’t see what has materially changed in this series to find such an adjustment credible. Even the home-court advantage bump is dubious, as the Sun are consummate road warriors. They’re 6-0 against the spread in their last six road games.
I’m backing Connecticut to cover and advance on Wednesday.
Pick: Sun -5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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