Best WNBA Player Props Today: Samuelson Picks Up the Slack

Prop bet #1: Napheesa Collier Under 22.5 points

Through two games, Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier is making a strong push for MVP. She dropped 20 points and 12 rebounds against the Storm in the home opener and then pushed Minnesota to a 2OT victory with 29 points at Seattle last Friday.

Collier and the Lynx come to Connecticut tonight, taking on a Sun team that has a far deeper frontcourt than the Storm and runs a much more methodical pace than Seattle. 

The Lynx and Storm played at a very aggressive pace rating of 103.2 in their two matchups while the Sun are currently the slowest tempo in the WNBA (96.20) and limiting foes to an average of only 59 field goal attempts per contest. 

On top of that, the Connecticut Sun are much tougher inside on defense and don’t give up second-chance buckets or easy points off turnovers — all of which were areas Minnesota benefitted from against the Storm.

Collier’s scoring prop for Thursday is at 22.5 O/U, reflecting her hot start but also her success against Connecticut last season. The 6-foot-1 UConn product averaged 24.4 points over five run-ins with the Sun in 2023, including three playoff games. 

Projections range for Collier with some coming in as short as 18.7 points on Thursday. This game is a much different matchup than that home-and-home with a Seattle team struggling to gel with so many new pieces. The Sun have a veteran core that has played together for a while including Brionna Jones, who’s starting to get more minutes.

Napheesa Collier prop: Under 22.5 points (-107 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Karlie Samuelson Over 10.5 points

The Washington Mystics have been bitten by the injury bug early into the season, already down top guard Brittney Sykes and currently listing Shakira Austin and Didi Richards as game-time decisions for Thursday’s trip to Phoenix.

Trying to make up for those missing pieces is veteran guard Karlie Samuelson, who joined Washington this offseason. Samuelson is averaging just shy of 12 points per game in the first four outings, logging major minutes due to this shortened rotation.

She’ll face a Phoenix Mercury team still ironing out the wrinkles on defense after adding a lot of new players this offseason. Phoenix sits second last in defensive rating and has allowed foes to fire at will from beyond the arc, giving up nine triples on almost 28 attempts from 3-point range through three games.

Samuelson has been especially lethal from distance to start 2024. After a 1-for-6 outing in the season opener, she’s since a collective 8-for-15 from distance the past three games. She’ll continue to get minutes and extra touches on offense with Atkins out and Richards limited. 

Her scoring prop is at 10.5 O/U for tonight and my projections sit at 11.7 points from Samuelson, which should have the Over listed around -121. There are some books as high as -130 on the Over 10.5 but you can find juice as low as -115 on Thursday morning.

Karlie Samuelson prop: Over 10.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Sabrina Ionescu Over 4.5 rebounds

New York Liberty standout Sabrina Ionescu has been on red-alert defensive duties the past two games, taking on the likes of Caitlin Clark and Jewel Loyd. She can let her guard down a bit against the Chicago Sky tonight.

Those assignments had her playing tight defense on elite shooters and keeping her away from the basket, which impacted her rebounding output. Ionescu recorded a single rebound in both outings after snatching seven in each of the opening two games. That has her rebound prop against Chicago down to 4.5 O/U. 

The Sky play a quicker tempo on offense, posting a pace rating of 102.3 and averaging a league-high 77 field goal attempts per game in its first two games against Dallas. The Sky allowed 82 total rebounds to the Wings in those outings. 

WNBA player models call for north of six rebounds from Ionescu, with my number coming out to 6.1 boards. The Over 4.5 is out there as pricy as -140, but you can shop and find the lowest juice at -120 on Thursday morning.

Sabrina Ionescu prop: Over 4.5 rebounds (-120 at BetMGM)