New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Who Will Land First Blow?

Sometimes the Basketball Gods just deliver. When the New York Liberty retooled this offseason in an effort to catch the seemingly unstoppable rise of the Las Vegas Aces, the WNBA world collectively salivated over the prospect of a Finals matchup between these two superteams. 

And superteams they are, whatever the players themselves say. These are two of the most dominant W teams ever put together, featuring a trio of MVPs, swaths of All-W and All-Defense players, and two of the best coaches in the game.

This has the potential to be one of the greatest WNBA Finals of all time, and who draws first blood and tips the WNBA odds in their favor on Sunday could prove pivotal.

Our free WNBA picks for Game 1 of Liberty vs. Aces believe that Betnijah Laney will continue to be an X-factor for New York.

Liberty vs Aces Game 1 best odds

Liberty vs Aces Game 1 picks and predictions

In the short history of NBA and WNBA superteams, there has been one common trait that has proven key to success. Namely, sacrifice.

If a collection of superstar talent is ever going to be more than the sum of their parts (and not profoundly less as often happens) then someone is going to have to give up touches, play out of position, or totally reinvent their game. That initial sacrifice is the catalyst that sets the whole thing in motion or sees the dreams of a five-year title window die in the crib.

When the new-look New York Liberty got put together during the offseason, it was pretty clear who would have to sacrifice the most to make it work. It wasn’t going to incoming MVPs Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, or rising league star Sabrina Ionescu. No, the burden to fit in would fall squarely in the lap of 29-year-old Betnijah Laney.

Laney is a WNBA vet, but she’s only come into her own as a player in the last few seasons. She won Most Improved Player in 2020 and made her first All-Star team with the Liberty in 2021, then missed most of the following season due to a meniscus injury.

Returning to the Liberty in earnest this season, the roster was totally transformed. She wouldn’t be working as the No. 2 option behind Sabrina, instead, she might be fourth, or fifth, depending on the night. The Liberty relied on her to be their do-it-all defender on the wing, and she rewarded them with her second WNBA All-Defensive Team selection. 

For most of the year, Laney’s willingness to do the dirty work on both ends has been the secret sauce that makes the more finesse-leaning parts of the Liberty’s game flow, but Laney’s play in the playoffs so far has shown that she is ready, willing, and able to take on more of the scoring load when called upon. Over her last 10 games, she’s shooting above 50/40/90 from the field. Even as competition has ramped up in the playoffs, she’s only continued to find ways to succeed.

Laney has learned to marry her aggressive play with great poise. Her shooting confidence has taken a clear jump as well. The pressure of a strong closeout can’t deter her from taking a corner three, and neither can a slightly off-target pass. When a player can succeed in more and more variations of less perfect scenarios, they’ve achieved something important. 

Laney has clearly taken that leap in these playoffs going against two of the nastiest defensive teams in the W over the first two rounds. She’s consistently made gold out of imperfect setups and has picked her spots to call her own number marvelously.

Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Laney is averaging 16.4 points per game on 56.5% effective field goal percentage, including 43.8% from downtown. That’s up from 12.8 points in the regular season.

While her minutes weren’t promised to start the season, she’s become an indispensable tool in Sandy Brondello’s toolkit. She played the full 40 minutes in the close-out game against Connecticut. Unlike some of the Liberty stars, her presence doesn’t take anything off the table. There isn’t a lineup combination that New York can put together that wouldn’t benefit from Laney’s addition.

The other names on the Liberty ring out louder, so when opposing teams are picking their poison, they often prefer to let Laney go off over Jonquel, Stewie, or Sabrina, but that poison is proving fatal for most opponents these days. 

Laney’s points prop is set at just 15.5 for Game 1, a number she's gone Over in 10 of her last 12 games. She’s also coming off three straight games of 20 points or more. Bank on Laney to deliver in Game 1.

My best bet: Betnijah Laney Over 15.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Liberty vs Aces Game 1 spread and Over/Under analysis

The Aces opened as -5.5 favorites, but that’s narrowed some in the lead-up to Sunday, with most books now offering a -4.5 spread. The Liberty and the Aces played five times this season, which in theory gives us a solid sample from which to make predictions for Game 1.

But as we’ve seen over and over again, the regular season and the postseason are two different beasts. While the Aces and Liberty played eight or nine players deep in their regular season contests, these teams are going to play seven and trust six now that we’re down to a Best of 5 for the title.

What we can take away are some of the matchup and schematic problems the best version of these teams poses.

Since Candace Parker went down with her foot injury, the Aces have relied on A’ja Wilson as their only true big. That’s no issue against most teams, but the Liberty can eat on the boards if Jonquel is guarded by anyone other than Wilson, but nobody else on Las Vegas has the size and speed to hang with Stewie other than A’ja. One of the Liberty bigs will always have a mismatch.  

The Liberty can also play five out in any of their lineups. That level of spacing makes denying drives into the paint quite difficult and makes it harder for the Aces to gang rebound against Jones. The Liberty outrebounded the Aces in four of their five matchups often by a significant margin.

The Aces have also shown a new level in these playoffs mind you, and Becky Hammon has used A’ja in creative ways to flummox defenses keyed on stopping her. I would tend to lean toward the Liberty covering but they are an unimpressive 2-6 against the spread in their last eight overall.

The total for Game 1 opened as high as 172.5, but it’s fallen some and is now available at 171 to 171.5 at most sportsbooks. These teams have more experience guarding each other than any other team this season, so the rotations and schemes should be on point from the jump. Notably both A’ja and Stewie have had down scoring averages in this matchup, as both teams seek and succeed at neutralizing the other.

The Liberty zone was decisive against the Sun, and we could see them try it against the Aces. While it would seem on paper that Las Vegas has too much shooting, it might work in spurts. 

When Stokes is on the court, the Liberty only has to worry about a maximum of three 3-point shooters. A’ja is also going to be scoring from the inside and Stokes isn’t going to look to shoot at all. 

That would allow Stewart and Jones to make the interior incredibly crowded for the other Aces players and could finally be a sustainable way for a team to slow down Wilson’s post-season scoring rampage. If that happens, this line could easily go Under.

The Under is Under is 7-3-1 in the Aces' last 11 home games, but the Liberty offense has been humming, and the Over is now 7-1 in their last eight overall.

Liberty vs Aces betting trend to know

The Liberty are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Aces.

Liberty vs Aces Game 1 game info

Liberty vs Aces Game 1 key injuries

Liberty: Han Xu C (Out).
Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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