Minnesota Lynx vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: No Rest, No Problem

If any team knows a thing or two about performing on little rest, it would be the Las Vegas Aces.

Just like those sleep-deprived Sin City patrons, the Aces don’t have much time to recover before hitting the court again Sunday. Las Vegas ran the depleted L.A. Sparks off the floor Saturday night, and now hosts the Minnesota Lynx for a 9:00 p.m. ET tipoff.

Minnesota brings a winless start to the season with it to Vegas, along with an 0-3 ATS mark on the year. The Lynx now run into the defending WNBA champs, who own a net rating of +30 through three games (3-0 SU/2-1 ATS).

I take a look at the points spread and Over/Under total for this Sunday night showcase, and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Lynx vs Aces on May 28. 

Lynx vs Aces best odds

Lynx vs Aces picks and predictions

WNBA odds makers opened this game with the Las Vegas Aces as a 12-point home favorite playing the second of back-to-back games after rolling past Los Angeles on Saturday night.

Perhaps that 28-point thumping of L.A. was jumpstarted by a few additional factors, like coach Becky Hammon’s return from a two-game suspension, and “ring night” for their home opener. The Sparks were also down notable players due to an illness ripping through the locker room.

Even with a tempered approach to Sunday’s matchup with the Minnesota Lynx, my power ratings spit out a spread closer to Aces -14.

What this spread looks like later in the day will vary, as I suspect we’ll see an uptick from the opener. The quick turnaround for Vegas could anchor the line from running too high, as this is the first conditioning test for the Aces in this young 2023 season.

Depth was a concern last year, with Las Vegas very dependent on its starting five, but offseason moves have bolstered the team depth. The Aces can find production from multiple sources, cushioning the blow of a bad game from one of the starting five.

Saturday’s outing was over before the first quarter, as Vegas raced out to a 31-13 lead. With Sunday’s game in mind, Hammon was able to get good minutes from her stars while also resting those players with quality minutes off the bench. The Aces' reserves chipped in with 20 points, and no starter played more than 26 minutes, keeping them fresh for this matchup with Minnesota.

Some online operators have already ticked this one up a full point to Las Vegas -13, with some settling at -12.5. I’m not as concerned about the back-to-back scenario, and would play the Aces from -12 all the way to -14.

My best bet: Las Vegas -12.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Lynx vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

With the Aces taking down the Sparks 93-65 on Saturday, books were slower to release a line for Sunday’s game. Circa sportsbook opened with Las Vegas as a 12-point home chalk in this second of back-to-back games.

The Aces exploded out of the gates against a Los Angeles team missing some key players due to a locker room illness, and that cushion allowed head coach Becky Hammon to lean into her bench in the second half. Las Vegas, which is usually very dependent on its starters, got great minutes from the reserves and should still have plenty of gas in the tank for this quick turnaround.

The Aces are an offensive juggernaut, averaging more than 97 points per game on 51% shooting from the floor and boasting an offensive rating of 113.6 through three games. The team has four players scoring more than 12 points per game with All-Star forward Candace Parker scoring just shy of 10 points in her first three games with Vegas.

Minnesota showed life on offense in its loss at Phoenix last Thursday, but it doesn’t have the firepower to punch with the Aces, nor does it have the defensive chops to slow them down. The Lynx have watched their three foes fire at a 44.4% clip and have gift wrapped plenty of points due to turnover troubles, coughing up the ball 16 times per outing for almost 19 points against off those mistakes.

This Over/Under total hit the board at 169.5 points, which is just short of the past two closing totals for Las Vegas. The Aces’ up-tempo style of offense fueled Over results in their first two outings of 2023 with Saturday’s blowout win over L.A. coming in well below the total.

Minnesota is 1-2 Over/Under this season, with Thursday’s loss to the Mercury going Over a closing number of 159.5 points. The Lynx rank 10th in pace rating, but turnover issues could throw gas on the fire as it pertains to slowing down Vegas, which loves to push the ball in transition and score fastbreak buckets.

Lynx vs Aces betting trend to know

The Over is 39-18 in the Lynx’s last 57 road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Aces.

Lynx vs Aces game info

Lynx vs Aces key injuries

Lynx: K. McBride G (Ques), N. Achonwa F (Out).

Aces: R. Williams G (Ques).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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