SDPA, NBCSP

San Diego @ Philadelphia props

Citizens Bank Park

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Cristian Pache Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

C. Pache
left outfield LF • Philadelphia
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Cristian Pache will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Cristian Pache has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 27.84 ft/sec to 28.42 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Cristian Pache

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Cristian Pache will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Cristian Pache has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 27.84 ft/sec to 28.42 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Alec Bohm Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

A. Bohm
third base 3B • Philadelphia
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-225
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-225
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 5th-worst park in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Batting from the same side that Michael King throws from, Alec Bohm encounters a tough challenge in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alec Bohm's true offensive ability to be a .319, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .042 deviation between that mark and his actual .361 wOBA. Alec Bohm has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 7.9° mark is among the lowest in the league since the start of last season (20th percentile).

Alec Bohm

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 5th-worst park in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Batting from the same side that Michael King throws from, Alec Bohm encounters a tough challenge in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alec Bohm's true offensive ability to be a .319, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .042 deviation between that mark and his actual .361 wOBA. Alec Bohm has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 7.9° mark is among the lowest in the league since the start of last season (20th percentile).

Trea Turner Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

T. Turner
shortstop SS • Philadelphia
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-225
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Under
-225
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 5th-worst park in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Michael King throws from, Trea Turner will have a tough matchup today. Trea Turner's speed has declined this year. His 30.23 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.67 ft/sec now. Despite posting a .371 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trea Turner has experienced some positive variance given the .034 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .337.

Trea Turner

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 5th-worst park in the majors for right-handed BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Michael King throws from, Trea Turner will have a tough matchup today. Trea Turner's speed has declined this year. His 30.23 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.67 ft/sec now. Despite posting a .371 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trea Turner has experienced some positive variance given the .034 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .337.

Brandon Marsh Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

B. Marsh
center outfield CF • Philadelphia
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-167
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-167
Projection Rating

When assessing his BABIP ability, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an advantage today. Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Brandon Marsh

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

When assessing his BABIP ability, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an advantage today. Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Garrett Stubbs Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

G. Stubbs
catcher C • Philadelphia
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Garrett Stubbs will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King today. Garrett Stubbs will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Garrett Stubbs

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Garrett Stubbs will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King today. Garrett Stubbs will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Hits Props • San Diego

F. Tatis Jr.
right outfield RF • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.1
Best Odds
Over
-250
Projection Rating

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.1

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Manny Machado Total Hits Props • San Diego

M. Machado
third base 3B • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-210
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-210
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Manny Machado

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Donovan Solano Total Hits Props • San Diego

D. Solano
second base 2B • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-210
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-210
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Donovan Solano is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Donovan Solano

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Donovan Solano is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Kyle Schwarber Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

K. Schwarber
designated hitter DH • Philadelphia
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-175
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-175
Projection Rating

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 17th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Kyle Schwarber

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 17th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

David Dahl Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

D. Dahl
right outfield RF • Philadelphia
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-145
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-145
Projection Rating

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats. David Dahl will hold the platoon advantage against Michael King today. David Dahl will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

David Dahl

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats. David Dahl will hold the platoon advantage against Michael King today. David Dahl will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Ha-Seong Kim Total Hits Props • San Diego

H. Kim
second base 2B • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-145
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-145
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ha-seong Kim in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Ha-seong Kim pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.272) may lead us to conclude that Ha-seong Kim has had some very poor luck this year with his .220 actual batting average.

Ha-Seong Kim

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ha-seong Kim in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Ha-seong Kim pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.272) may lead us to conclude that Ha-seong Kim has had some very poor luck this year with his .220 actual batting average.

Bryson Stott Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

B. Stott
shortstop SS • Philadelphia
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-215
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-215
Projection Rating

Bryson Stott's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryson Stott is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Bryson Stott will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's game.

Bryson Stott

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Bryson Stott's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryson Stott is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Bryson Stott will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's game.

Luis Arraez Total Hits Props • San Diego

L. Arraez
second base 2B • San Diego
Prop
1.5
Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-210
Prop
1.5 Total Hits
Projection
1.3
Best Odds
Under
-210
Projection Rating

The #5 ballpark in MLB for suppressing base hits to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's 3.5% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) is in the 10th percentile since the start of last season. Checking in at the 1st percentile, the hardest ball Luis Arraez has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 104 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

Luis Arraez

Prop: 1.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1.3
Prop:
1.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1.3

The #5 ballpark in MLB for suppressing base hits to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's 3.5% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) is in the 10th percentile since the start of last season. Checking in at the 1st percentile, the hardest ball Luis Arraez has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 104 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

Tyler Wade Total Hits Props • San Diego

T. Wade
second base 2B • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-120
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.7
Best Odds
Over
-120
Projection Rating

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Tyler Wade will hold the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola in today's game. Tyler Wade has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Tyler Wade

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.7
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.7

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Tyler Wade will hold the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola in today's game. Tyler Wade has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Luis Campusano Total Hits Props • San Diego

L. Campusano
catcher C • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-190
Projection Rating

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Luis Campusano pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Luis Campusano has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .237 figure is considerably lower than his .247 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Luis Campusano and his 19.3% rank in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.

Luis Campusano

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Luis Campusano pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Luis Campusano has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .237 figure is considerably lower than his .247 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Luis Campusano and his 19.3% rank in the 85th percentile since the start of last season.

Jurickson Profar Total Hits Props • San Diego

J. Profar
left outfield LF • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-195
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-195
Projection Rating

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Jurickson Profar's speed has increased this year. His 25.68 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.52 ft/sec now.

Jurickson Profar

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Jurickson Profar's speed has increased this year. His 25.68 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.52 ft/sec now.

Jake Cronenworth Total Hits Props • San Diego

J. Cronenworth
second base 2B • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-240
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-240
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola in today's matchup.

Jake Cronenworth

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Aaron Nola in today's matchup.

Jackson Merrill Total Hits Props • San Diego

J. Merrill
center outfield CF • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-240
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-240
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand today.

Jackson Merrill

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand today.

Nick Castellanos Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

N. Castellanos
right outfield RF • Philadelphia
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-210
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.9
Best Odds
Over
-210
Projection Rating

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Nick Castellanos will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Nick Castellanos

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.9
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.9

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Nick Castellanos will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Bryce Harper Total Hits Props • Philadelphia

B. Harper
first base 1B • Philadelphia
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-265
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
1
Best Odds
Over
-265
Projection Rating

Bryce Harper projects as the 9th-best batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge today.

Bryce Harper

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 1
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
1

Bryce Harper projects as the 9th-best batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge today.

David Peralta Total Hits Props • San Diego

D. Peralta
left outfield LF • San Diego
Prop
0.5
Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-177
Prop
0.5 Total Hits
Projection
0.8
Best Odds
Over
-177
Projection Rating

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, David Peralta will have an edge in today's matchup. David Peralta has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .290 figure is quite a bit lower than his .331 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

David Peralta

Prop: 0.5 Total Hits
Projection: 0.8
Prop:
0.5 Total Hits
Projection:
0.8

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all stadiums. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 86°. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, David Peralta will have an edge in today's matchup. David Peralta has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .290 figure is quite a bit lower than his .331 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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About Units and “ROI”

Units are a standardized measurement used to determine the size of each of your bets relative to your bankroll. For example, if you have a bankroll of $200 and you bet 5% of your bankroll each time, each of your units is worth $10. A bettor with a $2000 bankroll who bets 5% per bet has units of $100. We use the number of units to standardize the amount the trend is up or down across different bet amounts.

ROI is the best indicator of success and measures how much you bet vs. how much you profited. Any positive ROI is good in sports betting with great long-term bettors sitting in the 5-7% range.

Sports Betting Bankroll Management and ROI Guide

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