Houston Open Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Knapp Gets Dialed in Lone Star State

The PGA Tour heads to The Lone Star State for the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course, and all eyes will be on Scottie Scheffler, the betting favorite in the golf odds.

Scheffler stands alone in a tier all to himself after winning the Arnold Palmer and THE PLAYERS. Wyndham Clark is next in line with a third tier of Will Zalatoris, Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau, and Jason Day rounding out the contenders in the Houston Open odds.

Our Houston Open sleepers and free golf picks are looking a little further down the board this week.

2024 Houston Open sleeper picks

• Jake Knapp to win outright (+5,500 at DraftKings)
• Billy Horschel to win outright (+6,500 at FanDuel)
• Andrew Novak to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel)
  
  
• Jake Knapp Top 30 (+125 at bet365)
• Billy Horschel Top 40 (-110 at bet365)
• Andrew Novak Top 40 (+130 at BetRivers)

Picks were made on March 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

2024 Houston Open and Memorial Park key stats

Memorial Park Golf Course is a demanding Par 70 that stretches a lengthy 7,435 yards. This will be the fourth time Memorial has hosted but all three editions were in November.

As a result, course familiarity and history won’t be as predictive and Memorial doesn’t stand to play as firm or fast as years past. The rough won't be as long, so with already wide fairways, distance off the tee could be even more beneficial. 

What we do know is that par is a good score. The cut has been over par each of the past three years with only seven players finishing double-digits deep after 72 holes. The scoring and conditions resemble a major championship setup and players will have every aspect of their game tested this week.

There are only three Par 5s on the loop and putting circles on the card at them has proven critical with six of the Par 4s over 450 yards and two of the Par 3s playing over 200 yards.

 Additional commonalities among the winners and contenders over the past three weeks have been a strong tee game, excellent approach play, and a tight short game. The winner has also finished Top 5 in true strokes gained putting each year.

• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Strokes gained off-the-tee
• Par-5 scoring
• Strokes gained putting
• Bogey avoidance

2024 Houston Open sleeper predictions

Jake Knapp to win outright (+5,500)

Statistically, Jake Knapp has a lot going right with ranks of sixth in true strokes gained approach, 16th in driving distance, and 15th in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 23 measured rounds dating back to his T3 finish at the Farmers.

The past two stops for Knapp haven’t suited his tee game, either, but I’m anticipating him driving it well at Memorial Park because of the wide landing areas and need for length.

He’s also a candidate for considerable statistical correction to his Par-5 scoring. Knapp ranks 116th on Tour with an average score of 4.59 on Par 5s, which is unsustainably high for a player with his length, approach game, and work on the greens.

I also value him taking a breather last week after playing three consecutive events following his breakout win at the Mexico Open.

Pick: Jake Knapp to win outright (+5,500 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Jake Knapp Top 30 (+125 at bet365)

Billy Horschel to win outright (+6,500 at FanDuel)

Things are trending in the right direction for Billy Horschel, and he ranks ninth on Tour in bogey avoidance and 17th in strokes gained putting.

His T12 at the Valspar was preceded by a T9 at the Cognizant Classic and he has a pair of Texas wins on his resume with his victories at the 2017 AT&T Byron Nelson and 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

Additionally, I expect his tee-to-green game to continue rounding into better form. He gained true strokes on the field across the board during his pair of Top-12 showings in Florida and climbed from 111th in strokes gained tee-to-green before the Cognizant to 43rd entering this week.

He also needs to keep the pedal to the metal to play The Masters this year and there's a nice edge in the available +6,500 FanDuel odds. The seven-time Tour winner is listed as short as +5,000 through BetMGM and that discrepancy attaches a positive expected value of 32% to the FanDuel odds.

Pick: Billy Horschel to win outright (+6,500 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Billy Horschel Top 40 (-110 at bet365)

Andrew Novak to win outright (+11,000)

Remove a missed cut at THE PLAYERS and Andrew Novak has been sharp of late with three consecutive Top-10 finishes heading to TPC Sawgrass and a T17 result last week at the Valspar.

He ranks eighth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 13th in true strokes gained approach, and 14th in true strokes gained around-the-green during that 18-round stretch.

Additionally, with respectable ranks in bogey avoidance (41st) and Par-5 scoring average (43rd) this season, the blueprint is in place for him to keep playing well at Memorial Park.

This is also another example where we're being given an edge in odds. Novak is as short as +8,000 to win this event through BetMGM, so the +11,000 FanDuel price presents a positive expected value of 33%.

Pick: Andrew Novak to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Andrew Novak Top 40 (+130 at BetRivers)

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic