Zurich Classic Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Horschel-Alexander Pairing Deserves More Love

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Louisiana for the Zurich Classic, and our free golf picks are the perfect complement to this week’s tournament and lone team event of the year. 

It’s a top-heavy field with the Patrick Cantlay-Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy-Shane Lowry, and Sahith Theegala-Will Zalatoris teams atop the Zurich Classic odds lists. We’re looking further down the golf odds lists with this week’s long shots and sleepers for the Zurich Classic.

2024 Zurich Classic sleeper picks

• Keith Mitchell and Joel Dahmen to win outright (+4,000 at DraftKings)
• Billy Horschel and Tyson Alexander to win outright (+5,000 at DraftKings)
• Alex Smalley and Matti Schmid to win outright (+6,500 at DraftKings)
  
  
• Keith Mitchell and Joel Dahmen Top 20 (+163 at BetRivers)
• Billy Horschel and Tyson Alexander Top 20 (+175 at BetRivers)
• Alex Smalley and Matti Schmid Top 20 (+188 at BetRivers)

Picks were made on April 23 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

2024 Zurich Classic and TPC Louisiana key stats

TPC Louisiana is a Pete Dye design that first hosted the Zurich Classic in 2005. It’s a traditional, 7,425-yard Par 72 with four Par 5s and four Par 3s. Birdies have come in bunches even before the tournament became a team event.

All four of the Par 5s are reachable in two for the majority of the field, and there are also five Par 4s at 403 yards or shorter. These scoring opportunities are offset by the Par 3s all stretching out over 200 yards, but make no mistake, the highest winning score in the team event was -20 in 2021 by Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Additionally, Justin Rose fired a -22 to set the individual tournament record in 2015.

Each team plays a four-ball (also known as best ball) in the first and third rounds, and foursomes (alternate shot) in the second and fourth rounds. As a result, it’s far from your typical event and I’m approaching the event with less of a statistical focus.

Still, I’m looking for solid tee-to-green and approach play in addition to players who can string together birdies. Additionally, the team aspect can’t be ignored and a proven track record at the event carries value because of the unique format.

• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Strokes gained approach
• Birdie average
• Scoring average

2024 Zurich Classic sleeper predictions

Keith Mitchell and Joel Dahmen to win outright (+4,000)

There’s a lot of potential for this Mitchell-Dahmen pairing in their first time teaming up. Mitchell finished sixth last year with Sungjae Im and T4 in 2021 with Brandt Snedeker while Dahmen has also had success with three Top-25 showings alongside Denny McCarthy and Brandon Harkins in 2019.

Mitchell and Dahmen also ace the ball-striking numbers with respective ranks of sixth and fourth in true strokes gained approach and fourth and fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field across their past 20 rounds.

We’re landing this number because they’ve both been allergic to sinking putts. Still, with their combined history in this event and highlighted tee-to-green form, there’s plenty to like at the +4,000 DraftKings odds when all it might take to contend is a few more putts dropping.

Pick: Keith Mitchell and Joel Dahmen to win outright (+4,000 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Keith Mitchell and Joel Dahmen Top 20 (+163 at BetRivers)

Billy Horschel and Tyson Alexander to win outright (+5,000)

An annual contender and two-time winner at TPC Louisiana, Horschel is partnering with his former University of Florida coach’s son. While Alexander hasn’t had nearly the same PGA Tour success, he's flashed in the past, including a solo second at the Houston Open in 2022. 

Still, Horschel is the real draw. He won the 2013 Zurich when it was still a solo event and he has five consecutive Top-15 finishes in the team format, including his 2018 win with Scott Piercy.

Of course, Horschel is also coming off a win at the Corales Puntacana Championship for his fourth Top-15 finish in six events. He also ranks sixth in scoring average and a respectable 37th in birdie average on Tour this season. 

There’s potential for Horschel to bring the best out of Alexander’s game, and we’re also landing an edge in the numbers. Horschel and Alexander are trading at just +4,000 through bet365, which provides a positive expected value of 22% with the +5,000 DraftKings odds.

Pick: Billy Horschel and Tyson Alexander to win outright (+5,000 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Billy Horschel and Tyson Alexander Top 20 (+175 at BetRivers)

Alex Smalley and Matti Schmid to win outright (+6,500)

Smalley and Schmid have both played well in weaker fields and head to the Zurich following respective T6 and T11 finishes in the Corales Puntacana Championship.

They both have solid track records and amateur pedigree, with Smalley a Walker Cup member in 2019 and Schmid winning the European Amateur in 2019 and 2020.

Both will be playing TPC Louisiana competitively for the first time and there isn’t a string of strong showings or sterling statistics to excite. Still, the career-trajectory arrow is pointing straight up for Smalley and Schmid and this is an event ripe for a long-shot tandem to contend.

There's been line movement in the outright market for the Smalley-Schmid team, too. DraftKings dropped them from +10,000 to the +6,500 number, but with Smalley and Schmid carrying +5,000 bet365 odds, we’re still landing a positive expected value of 32%.

Pick: Alex Smalley and Matti Schmid to win outright (+6,500 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Alex Smalley and Matti Schmid Top 20 (+188 at BetRivers)

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