LIV Golf is back after the first major championship of the season that saw Bryson DeChambeau, Cam Smith, and Tyrrell Hatton all finish inside the Top 10.
That was far from the case for weekly LIV favorite Jon Rahm who finished just T45 in defense of his 2022 Green Jacket. Either way, he's back atop the board at Grange Golf Club still in search of his first win.
We break down the field and give free golf picks in our full LIV Golf Adelaide betting preview below.
2024 LIV Golf Adelaide picks
- Cam Smith to win outright (+1,100 at DraftKings)
- Louis Oosthuizen to win outright (+2,200 at DraftKings)
- Patrick Reed to win outright (+3,000 at Caesars)
- Cam Smith Top 10 (+100 at DraftKings)
- Louis Oosthuizen Top 10 (+170 at DraftKings)
- Patrick Reed Top 10 (+200 at DraftKings)
Picks were made on April 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Odds to win LIV Golf Adelaide
| Golfer |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +650 | +750 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +900 | +900 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1,000 | +800 |
| Cameron Smith | +1,000 | +1,100 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +1,100 | +1,100 |
| Talor Gooch | +1,400 | +1,100 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +2,000 | +2,200 |
| Dustin Johnson | +2,000 | +2,200 |
| Brooks Koepka | +2,200 | +2,800 |
| Abraham Ancer | +2,200 | +2,200 |
| Dean Burmester | +2,200 | +1,600 |
| Sergio Garcia | +2,200 | +2,800 |
Odds as of 4-22.
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Grange Golf Club course notes
This week’s LIV Golf event will use both the East and West courses at The Grange Golf Club to form a blended Par-72 course that will play to 6,946 yards. Firm and fast greens will be one of the biggest defenses of the short track, but make no mistake, there will be plenty of low scores this week.
Gooch carded consecutive 62s en route to a 19-under win last year with another 24 players finishing double-digits under par.
Of course, the famed No. 12 “Watering Hole” will also make a splash. The Par 3 is surrounded by marquees and stadium seating, mimicking the Phoenix Open rambunctiousness of No. 16 at TPC Scottsdale.
LIV Golf Adelaide picks and predictions
Cameron Smith to win outright (+1,100)
The Aussie is in excellent form with a T2 finish at LIV Hong Kong and he carded an excellent T6 at the Masters while playing to par or better in all four rounds.
Smith also finished fourth in true strokes gained putting and second in true strokes gained around-the-green to reinforce his short-game wizardry in the season’s opening major.
He finished T3 at the 2023 Adelaide event and he’s won three Australian PGA Championships, so playing on his home soil suits him well. The Ripper GC captain is also trading as short as +800 through Caesars, so the difference in numbers checks out at a positive expected value of 33% attached to the +1,100 DraftKings price.
Pick: Cameron Smith to win outright (+1,100 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Cameron Smith Top 10 (+100 at DraftKings)
Louis Oosthuizen to win outright (+2,200)
The ball-striking wizard heads to Australia in solid form and ranking second in strokes gained putting this season.
Oosthuizen also won twice in South Africa on the DP World Tour in December and has five Top-20 results through six events since, including a pair of runner-up finishes at the International Series Oman on the Asian Tour and LIV Jeddah.
Add Oosthuizen’s respectable T11 showing at this event last year and this is a reasonable number given his elite tee-to-green game and improved putting. He’s also priced as short as +1,800 through bet365 and BetMGM, and while the difference doesn’t jump off the page, there’s a positive expected value of 22% attached to the +2,200 DraftKings odds.
Pick: Louis Oosthuizen to win outright (+2,200 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Louis Oosthuizen Top 10 (+170 at DraftKings)
Patrick Reed to win outright (+3,000)
Patrick Reed is notoriously streaky and has strung together runs of solid finishes throughout his career. He finished T3 here last year and heads to the 2024 event in similar form with a T12 at the Masters, T9 at LIV Miami, and a solo fourth at the International Series Macau on the Asian Tour.
Similar to Smith, Reed has a tidy short game, and he finished sixth in true strokes gained putting and third in true strokes gained around-the-green at the Masters two weeks ago.
This is another example of where shopping for the best price can give you an edge. DraftKings and bet365 have Reed priced at +2,500, so the +3,000 Caesars odds offer a positive expected value of 18%.
Pick: Patrick Reed to win outright (+3,000 at Caesars, 0.25 units)
Pick: Patrick Reed Top 10 (+200 at DraftKings)
LIV Golf Adelaide field and favorites
It would be overreactive to worry about Jon Rahm's game considering he logged eight straight worldwide Top 10s (five of those LIV) between September and the LIV Miami event that preceded the Masters. It's also fair to say we expected more of the former World No. 1 at Augusta National.
With rounds of 73-76-72-76, the defending Masters champ finished just T45 and was far from a factor at any point of the week. As a result, his odds have dipped to as long as +750 this week after closing as short as +400 at Mayakoba in his first LIV start.
Joaquin Niemann is running second on the board with odds as short as +900. He's won twice already this season (Mayakoba, Jeddah) and finished T9 in Miami before a T22 at Augusta.
The No. 3 spot belongs to Bryson DeChambeau, who was top of mind at the Masters after an impressive opening-round 65. He stalled out over the weekend but still finished T6 in the tough conditions to be the best LIV finisher (alongside Cam Smith).
The signs were there, too, considering the major champ went T9 or better in five straight starts during the lead-up. He's 10/1 at bet365 this week but as short as 8/1 at DraftKings.
Cam Smith (T6) and Tyrrell Hatton (T9) were the only other two LIV members to finish inside the Top 10 at the Masters and round out the Top 5 here as a result.
Defending Adelaide champ Talor Gooch is on the board as long as +1,400. He's finished T9 or better in three of his last four LIV starts but wasn't at the Masters.
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LIV Golf recent winners and odds history
Let's take a look at some recent LIV Golf winners and their closing odds to win:
| Event | Golfer | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| Miami (April 2024) | Dean Burmester | +3,000 |
| Hong Kong (March 2024) | Abraham Ancer | +3,500 |
| Jeddah (March 2024) | Joaquin Niemann (2) | +1,000 |
| Las Vegas (February 2024) | Dustin Johnson | +1,600 |
| Mayakoba (February 2024) | Joaquin Niemann | +1,400 |
| Jeddah (October 2023) | Brooks Koepka (3) | +1,600 |
| Chicago (September 2023) | Bryson DeChambeau (2) | +1,100 |
| Bedminster (August 2023) | Cameron Smith (3) | +1,000 |
| Greenbrier (August 2023) | Bryson DeChambeau | +1,400 |
| London (July 2023) | Cameron Smith (2) | +900 |
| Andalucia (July 2023) | Talor Gooch (3) | +1,600 |
| Washington (May 2023) | Harold Varner III | +2,000 |
| Tulsa (May 2023) | Dustin Johnson (2) | +1,200 |
| Singapore (April 2023) | Talor Gooch (2) | +1,600 |
| Adelaide (April 2023) | Talor Gooch | +2,500 |
| Orlando (April 2023) | Brooks Koepka (2) | +4,000 |
| Tucson (March 2023) | Danny Lee | +8,000 |
| Mayakoba (Feb. 2023) | Charles Howell III | +4,000 |
Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.
