AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleeper Picks & Predictions: Cole Still a Threat to Contend

The PGA Tour hits the Monterey Peninsula for a second consecutive signature event and a star-studded field will play the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am for the first time in years.

Famed Pebble Beach Golf Links was beginning to see fewer and fewer of the world’s best, but this will be the strongest field hitting the course since it hosted the 2019 U.S. Open. 

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and Xander Schauffele stand out at the top of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds lists. We’ve seen several long-shots win to start the season, but I’m expecting the cream to rise to the top this week.

As a result, I’m again recommending quarter-unit bets in the outright market and targeting the plus-money golf odds available for finishing position bets for the following golfers. 

Here are my free golf picks for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am sleeper picks

• Eric Cole to win outright (+6,600 at BetMGM)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel)
• Tom Hoge to win outright (+15,000 at FanDuel)
  
  
• Eric Cole Top 30 (+110 at BetRivers)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 30 (+163 at BetRivers)
• Tom Hoge Top 40 (+110 at BetRivers)

Picks were made on 1/30/2024 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and key course stats

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is another event played on multiple courses. The 80-man field and their amateur partners will play one round apiece at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course over the first two days before returning to Pebble for the final two rounds on Saturday and Sunday.

With Spyglass not having Shotlink data, I don't value past statistics from the event as heavily this week. Additionally, the weather forecast for Sunday’s final round is downright miserable, which could quickly amp up the unpredictability.

Still, some strengths play well at Pebble Beach. Small, bunker-protected Poa Annua greens require strong approach shots and a tidy short game. It’s a short track (6,972 yards) with the key approach range being from 100-125 yards. 

• Strokes gained approach
• Strokes gained tee-to-green
• Strokes gained around-the-green
• Birdie-or-better percentage
• Proximity from 100-125 yards

2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am sleeper predictions

Eric Cole to win outright (+6,600)

I think we’re landing a longer number for Cole because he missed the cut last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. It was the first missed cut in 18 events for the reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, and he posted seven Top 25 results through his eight previous tournaments. 

Cole has the statistical profile to contend. He ranked 19th in strokes gained approach and 13th from the key 100-125 range while also showing off a smooth short game. 

He finished 16th in strokes gained around the green and second in putting average and putts per round. Add ranks of sixth in birdie average and ninth in scoring average, and I’m not overreacting to a blip on the radar at the demanding Farmers.

DraftKings has Cole trading at +5,000 and I also value that he finished T15 here last year. Additionally, he’s also showing off improved driving accuracy and has been better than the adjusted field number in each of his past four events. That’s huge because Cole ranked 163rd in driving accuracy on Tour last season. 

I’m expecting to see a lot of fairways, greens, and circles from Cole this week.

Pick: Eric Cole to win outright (+6,600 at BetMGM, 0.25 units)
Pick: Eric Cole Top 30 (+110 at BetRivers)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel)

We just saw Bezuindenhout contend at The American Express where he fell one shot short of picking up his first PGA Tour win. The South African also finished solo third at the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the DP World Tour in December, so the shot-game wizard is in the midst of a mini-heater.

This is another player ill-suited to contend at the challenging Farmers Open because length isn’t a strength, so I’m not concerned with last week’s missed cut.

This event aligns with his skillset considerably better, and he posted a T14 in his lone trip to Pebble in 2022. He finished 24th in proximity from the key range of 100-125 yards last year and ranks 35th in true strokes gained approach and 25th in true strokes gained putting in this field across his past 73 measured rounds.

Bezuidenhout is a horse for shorter courses and has been a weekend regular since joining the Tour full-time in 2022. He’s made 40 of 58 cuts and has 18 Top-25 finishes.

Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 30 (+163 at BetRivers)

Tom Hoge to win outright (+15,000)

The 2022 Pebble winner has had success in this event, and he’s an approach ace.

Hoge has gained true strokes on the field in seven consecutive events with Shotlink data and ranks eighth in this field across his past 13 measured rounds. Add finishing ninth in strokes gained approach and 25th from the 100-125 yard range last season, and the 34-year-old American checks a lot of boxes this week.

He can also put circles on the card in bunches and finished 24th in birdie-or-better percentage last season. Don’t scoff at his T56 finish at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, either. Torrey Pines South doesn’t set up well for Hoge, and he still made nine birdies and two eagles across 54 holes. 

Additionally, Hoge is trading as short as +10,000 through BetMGM, so the available +15,000 odds certainly have my attention.

Pick: Tom Hoge to win outright (+15,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Tom Hoge Top 40 (+110 at BetRivers)

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