Coyotes vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Slow Start, Big Finish in Toronto

The Arizona Coyotes have featured putrid defense and goaltending to open the season but they should start Monday's game tighter around the perimeter in Toronto. The Maple Leafs should win but the opening frame won't be as explosive as you might think.

Oct 17, 2022 • 12:16 ET • 4 min read
Justin Holl Toronto Maple Leafs NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Maple Leafs look to win a third straight game when they host the winless Arizona Coyotes tonight at Scotiabank Arena. 

The Maple Leafs were much better in their recent two encounters after committing calamitous mistakes in Montreal to lose the season opener with 19 seconds remaining. Toronto rebounded at home, beating Washington and Ottawa by identical 3-2 scores. 

Coyotes head coach Andre Tourigny is grasping at straws to locate silver linings from his team’s first two encounters, which saw them lose by a 12-5 combined margin. Our free NHL betting picks and predictions identify whether or not the Yotes can stop the bleeding against the surging Buds.

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs best odds

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

After allowing 12 goals in their first two contests, the 0-2 Coyotes travel to Toronto looking for a markedly better defensive outing. 

Touted by most to be one of the NHL’s worst teams, Arizona lived down to those expectations in Pittsburgh and Boston, where they allowed three and two in the first period, respectively. They couldn’t score in either opening stanza, exacerbating the already difficult task.

While the Coyotes are unlikely to win in Toronto, Tourigny should have his team better prepared from the first puck drop. Arizona is a somewhat surprising yet impressive 6-1 in its last seven in Toronto. While the Coyotes have had many personnel changes over the years, their success in Toronto remains a bizarre constant.

In addition, road teams in this particular head-to-head matchup are 7-3 in the previous 10. Dating back even further, the Coyotes are 16-6 in their last 22 meetings against Toronto, springboarding the Desert Dogs to the top of the Maple Leafs’ bogey teams’ list alongside the dreaded Bruins.  

However, although early, the 2022-23 Desert Dogs look inferior even to the team that finished second-last place in 2021-22. 

Karel Vejmelka faced 53 shots against the Pens and 42 versus the Bruins, a heavy bombardment that cannot continue if the Coyotes are to continue their rich vein of form in Toronto.  

Of course, two games don’t constitute an entire season, which is what Tourigny will tell his team ahead of Monday’s encounter. Look for the Coyotes to have an immeasurably better first 20 minutes, keeping the Leafs at least somewhat at bay going into the first intermission.

My best bet: Either 0 or 1 goal in the first period (+120 at PointsBet)

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Coyotes vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis

There are some undeniable positives for the Coyotes entering proceedings on Monday night. The Yotes, who are 5-2 in the previous seven against Atlantic Division teams, have a penchant for playing well on the east coast. 

They’re also 3-for-8 on the power play and came back from two goals down against the Bruins to level the affair before the home side scored three unanswered in the third period. However, that’s where the feel-good factor finishes for the Coyotes.

The Coyotes are 17-36 in their last 53 road contests and 17-35 in the previous 52 against Eastern Conference teams. Meanwhile, unlike most of the population, the Maple Leafs love Mondays. They’re 4-0 in the last four Monday night contests. 

In addition, the Maple Leafs regularly feast on below-.500 teams, winning five of their previous seven. Keefe’s team is a formidable 40-15 in its last 55 home games, a daunting prospect for the visiting Coyotes. 

Expect the Maple Leafs to beat the lowly Coyotes and continue their scintillating form on home ice.

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis

While it should be a comparatively low-scoring first period, the overall result lends itself to the Over.

Four of their last five games against Central Division opponents also resulted in the Over. Nineteen of its last 26 games against Western Conference opponents resulted in the Over, too, and the Over is 26-10-1 on a single day’s rest for the Maple Leafs. 

In addition, the Coyotes have shown an inability to limit the opposition’s shooting and scoring chances, again leaning toward the Over. Among teams to play only two games thus far, only the Minnesota Wild have conceded more goals (14) than the Coyotes (12), and seven of their last eight against Atlantic Division teams resulted in the Over.

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Coyotes' previous five games against teams with a winning record resulted in the Over. Find more NHL betting trends for Coyotes vs Maple Leafs.

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Monday, October 17, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Arizona, Sportsnet

Coyotes vs Maple Leafs key injuries

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