A matchup between the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins was once must-watch television when Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby were in their primes. Now, not so much.
Both teams are old and several games out of a playoff spot, but a win tonight would be a big four-point swing as Washington and Pittsburgh are separated by one point in the standings. NHL odds have the Pens favored at home, with a total hovering between 6 and 6.5.
With the amount of goals these squads have been seeing lately, I don't think that total is high enough. Find out what I mean in my free NHL picks for Capitals vs. Penguins on Thursday, March 7.
Capitals vs Penguins odds
Capitals vs Penguins predictions
The Washington Capitals have been horrible offensively since the beginning of the season, but their somewhat-competent defensive play was able to keep them competitive through most of the year. Well, that defense has completely sailed and Washington is bleeding goals since the All-Star break.
In 13 games since the break, the Caps have given up 3.53 goals per game, which includes giving up eight against the Red Wings. However, with the poor defense, the offense has begun to wake up. In that same span, Washington is scoring 3.46 gpg, which is way up from their season average of 2.62.
The Caps seem more aggressive on offense, but it's costing them in the backend. As for the Pittsburgh Penguins, they've also caught themselves in plenty of shootouts over the last several outings. Pittsburgh has seen the Over go 6-4 across their last 10, which is pretty significant when the team's overall O/U record is 23-34-3.
Pittsburgh's 2.92 goals per game since the All-Star break is nowhere near Washington's mark, but its 3.07 goals allowed is a bump from its season average of 2.78. Even though the Pens' offense hasn't taken a jump like the Capitals', they're also giving up more goals than usual. The total of 6 is most likely due to the overall numbers of these two sides, but with a 13-game sample size for Washington and 14 for Pittsburgh, I'm confident in backing these recent trends.
As for the goaltending, Darcy Kuemper has been confirmed as the starter for the Capitals and he's been far from worth his cap hit of $5.25 million per year. Kuemper's 3.15 GAA and .893 SV% aren't exactly jumping off the page, and he's also given up three or more goals in 10 of his last 11 outings. Even an offense like Pittsburgh can get a few by Kuemper at this point.
My best bet: Over 6 (-114 at Pinnacle)
Capitals vs Penguins same-game parlay
Over 5.5
Dylan Strome Over 0.5 points
Alexander Ovechkin 3+ shots
30% boost available
Dylan Strome leads his team in points with 47 and has registered at least one in seven of his last eight games. Strome does man the third line but gets bumped up to PP1 when the Capitals go on the man advantage, opening the door for plenty of assist opportunities.
Alexander Ovechkin is still on the hunt to pass Wayne Gretzky and is firing at will — launching eight shots on net in the loss to Arizona last time out. Washington's captain has registered three or more shots in 11 of 13 games since the All-Star break, and the Pens give up a modest 30.1 shots per game (18th).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Capitals vs Penguins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Despite the Capitals being ahead in the standings, it's the Penguins who opened as the home favorites. There hasn't been much line movement, with Pittsburgh in the -160 range and the Caps hovering around +140. The Caps and Pens have identical ML records of 28-32 this season.
As for the total, you can either get 6 or 6.5 depending on your book. For those offering 6.5, the price for the Over opened at -105 but money has since pushed it to +105. Both sides have been profitable Under bets this year, with Washington's O/U mark at 28-30-2, and Pittsburgh's at 23-34-3
Capitals vs Penguins betting trend to know
The Over is 8-2 in the Capitals' last 10 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Penguins.
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Capitals vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 7, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN-PIT, MNMT |
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