Super Bowl Predictions: 5 Last-Minute Predictions for Chiefs vs 49ers

The clock is ticking down to the Super Bowl kickoff, and there is still time to squeeze in those last-second wagers before the Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers gets underway. Since the matchup has been set, there has been a deluge of Super Bowl predictions over the last couple of weeks.

Super Bowl odds have fluctuated a bit, but 49ers -2 has more or less been the consensus number throughout the last week, with some 1.5-point spreads trickling in on Sunday. 

Looking over our expert NFL picks, here are five worth looking at as you finalize your Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions for Super Bowl 58 on Sunday, February 11.

5 last-minute Super Bowl predictions for Chiefs vs 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs moneyline (+115 at FanDuel)

When the lines for Super Bowl 58 opened after Championship Sunday, it looked like we could be headed toward a pick'em spread between two elite teams. And one of our initial picks was for the Kansas City Chiefs to win outright at +100.

Well, that line has lengthened a bit to +115, something we're still largely bullish on. Here's what Covers expert Jason Logan said at the time:

"I mean, what’s not to like about the Kansas City Chiefs as a moneyline underdog? You have a head coach who is one of the best bets in football off a bye (Andy Reid is 31-7 SU off a bye), Patrick Mahomes who is the most clutch player in the league and is also a Top 5 QB all-time, and a dangerous defense that ranks Top 10 in DVOA and EPA allowed per play that just so happens to be playing its best football right now."

The Chiefs have won two Super Bowls already with Mahomes under center — one of which came against the San Francisco 49ers, though they didn't have Brock Purdy or Christian McCaffrey at the time.

While Mahomes is the biggest star on the field tonight, our favorite player prop predictions went in a variety of directions.

Prediction: Chiefs moneyline (+115 at FanDuel)

George Kittle Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)

49ers tight end George Kittle's receiving yards prop opened at 48.5 and the Over was one of our favorite early bets on the board. Most books have moved this number up to 51.5 but FanDuel is still offering Over 49.5 at -110.

Logan likes the Over because of how Kittle has become an easy out for Niners QB Brock Purdy:

"Kittle is Brock Purdy’s safety blanket against blitz-heavy foes. He had monster games against the likes of Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Minnesota, drawing 27 targets for 18 catches and 364 total yards — an average of 91 yards per game against those blitz-happy schemes."

Our player prop projections have Kittle pegged for 62.3 yards on the day, so the Over looks good at either number, but it's always wise to get the lowest one you can find at the best odds.

Prediction: George Kittle Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)

Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 rush attempts (-122 at FanDuel)

If the 49ers play it safe out of the gate and don't play Purdy outside his comfort zone, that should mean a lot of touches for running back Christian McCaffrey as San Francisco sets the tone.

Covers expert Josh Inglis highlighted this strategy when favoring McCaffrey's rushing attempts props and it only makes sense to trust the Niners to stick to the game plan that got them here in the first place.

"The 49ers run at a high rate (48.2%) which would create 29.9 rushing plays and 32.1 passing plays if projecting 62 total plays from the offense, which is a slight increase on their season average (and) is due to an indoor game and projected neutral game script. McCaffrey gets about 65 to 70% of the carries and with Deebo (Samuel) getting work and Purdy stealing some, I’m settling in the middle at 67.5% of the carries which still seems modest after 71% last week. Taking his 5.3 yards per carry and KC’s 4.5 yards against, a reasonable projection for the RB is 19.4 carries and 97 rushing yards. His recent neck injury is a little worrying but with the extra week, he should be fine by game time."

If you like McCaffrey to carry the load early and often, this number is still available at most books with slightly more juice.

Prediction: Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 rush attempts (-122 at FanDuel) 

Brock Purdy Under 248.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

A correlating play to the above is to take the Under on Purdy's passing yards. Assuming the 49ers keep the game close — and they are favorites, after all — then Purdy shouldn't be required to air it out, which would only come into play if the Chiefs are winning by a blowout margin.

That seemed unlikely when Covers expert Rohit Ponnaiya highlighted the Under on Purdy's passing yards as one of his favorite plays. Not just because of the 49ers' game script but because of how well the Chiefs defend the pass:

"During the regular season and playoffs, Kansas City allowed just 181.5 passing yards per game and 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Although they surrendered 272 passing yards to MVP favorite Lamar Jackson last week, the Chiefs held star quarterbacks Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa below 200 passing yards in their first two playoff games. Not only do the Chiefs pass the eyeball test and look great in terms of traditional stats against the pass, but the analytics are also in their favor. They rank third in the league in defensive dropback EPA and second in defensive dropback success rate. While the Chiefs have been terrific against the pass. they've struggled against the run, ranking just 28th in defensive rush EPA. The 49ers already run the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and head coach Kyle Shanahan might be even more inclined to target the Chiefs' weakness on the ground rather than test them through the air with a young QB like Purdy."

This line was initially 245.5 passing yards and is as low as 242.5 (at BetRivers) while the rest of the industry has actually gone up to around 248.5.

Prediction: Brock Purdy Under 248.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

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Rashee Rice anytime TD (+145 at FanDuel)

Not one, but two of our Covers experts — Jason Logan and Josh Inglis — picked Chiefs WR Rashee Rice to find paydirt during the Super Bowl with his anytime touchdown line at +145.

This number hasn't moved by the time of this writing while teammate Travis Kelce (+102) and the Niners' McCaffrey (-210) are drawing much shorter odds.

"Rice has emerged as a top target for Patrick Mahomes and is a bigger red zone threat than Travis Kelce… well by one target (26 RZ targets vs. 25)," Logan wrote at the time. " Honestly, Mahomes only trusts Rice and Kelce in those RZ spots and these two are priced similarly across the market (Rice as low as +110/Kelce as high as +105)."

With Kelce's odds shorter by comparison, and Rice's role in the offense clear — our prop projections expect him to lead all receivers in receiving yards —he provides significant value in this market.

Prediction: Rashee Rice anytime touchdown (+145 at FanDuel)

49ers vs Chiefs odds

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