Chiefs vs Eagles Touchdown Props for Super Bowl 57

Touchdown props are usually among the first prop markets to open for the Super Bowl, and it’s never too early to get on board, find that sweet closing line value, and get ahead of the market.

While you're trying to wait out the Super Bowl odds for a better line or trying to decide on who will win the Super Bowl MVP, let me give you my three favorite Super Bowl picks for touchdown scorers for the Big Game.

Chiefs vs Eagles touchdown props

• Hurts +120
• Kelce +100
• Moore +800

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Chiefs vs 49ers TD props

Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+120 at Pinnacle) 

There’s nothing wrong with being square when there’s just one game left, and that’s where I’m at with a Jalen Hurts touchdown.

Since Week 10, he’s had nine touchdowns across nine games and has been held out of the end zone just twice over that stretch. The Eagles have also been giving every one of their three running backs carries in the red zone making it hard to take any of them. 

With the lopsided Philadelphia wins, it’s tough to predict the red-zone work for the Eagles, but over their two playoff games, Hurts has a team-high six carries inside the 20 for 36 yards and two scores.

This Jalen Hurts hype video is legit. TD at +120 at Pinny?? yes, please.pic.twitter.com/mRvHHsMtjC

— Josh Inglis (@Covers_josh) January 31, 2023

There is also a chance Hurts can bust one from outside the 20 which would give us another out. The Kansas City pass rush is legit strength, but if Hurts, who average 7.9 yards per scramble, can step through the pressure vs. a possible man zone, it could be six points.

Hurts also averages nearly eight designed runs per game and had a 30% rush share with a 30% share of the team’s rushing yards on the season. He had six rushes of 20-plus yards this season.  

Joe Burrow led the Bengals in rushing vs. the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game while the Chiefs haven’t seen a mobile quarterback since Week 6. 

His TD price has closed shorter than +100 in each of his two playoff games and this is the best price we'll see. I'd play it to -115. 

Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (+100 at bet365) and MVP (+1,300 at FanDuel)

If you’re going to bet Travis Kelce to score his 16th postseason TD in 18 games, you'd better do it early.

As of Tuesday, the best price on the board is +100 at bet365 with some books as short as -135. This will close at -110 or worse come next week and I wouldn’t bet this at -120 or shorter. However, this is a coin-flip at worst in my opinion, and if Mahomes is passing for two or more TDs, there’s a better than 50% chance that one of those is going Kelce’s way.

Over his 16 postseason games, he’s averaging 7.5 catches on 9.4 targets for 86.3 yards and 0.88 TDs per game. 

Mahomes and Kelce have combined for 13 postseason touchdowns which are two short of the all-time record held by Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski who have 15. The KC tight end also needs just one more TD to move into sole possession of second place all-time in playoff TDs as Gronkowski has 15 and Jerry Rice has 22. 

Key career stats and all-time rankings among players in #NFLPlayoff history by tight end Travis Kelce (following 78 yards and a touchdown grab on 7 catches in tonight's @Chiefs 23-20 win over the Bengals)
Receiving yds- 1467 (2nd)
Receptions- 127 (2nd)
Receiving TDs- 15 (T- 2nd) pic.twitter.com/VCEzFQVMg8

— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) January 30, 2023

The Chiefs’ receivers getting healthier only helps the TE as the Eagles won’t be able to blanket him as much as the Bengals did late in the AFC Championship game, with K.C. down three of its top receivers.

No pass-catcher had more red-zone opportunities than Kelce at 38 and it isn’t even close. Stefon Diggs had 25, Ja’Marr Chase had 31, and Justin Jefferson had 31, while the Bears’ had just 37 total red-zone opportunities to all of their receivers and tight ends combined. Kelce gets a ton of work in the red zone but it’s another level above other elite receiving talent.

Kelce’s touchdown price should close around -120. His 2-plus TD market is as long as +700 as of Tuesday but with his MVP odds at +1,300 (FanDuel), I’d prefer a bet on his MVP market as opposed to his 2-TD prop. A multi-touchdown game would likely give him the MVP if Kansas City wins and with Mahomes having already won the award, there is a little better chance it goes Kelce's way. 

Skyy Moore anytime touchdown (+800 at bet365)

Kelce and Hurts will likely draw the highest handle in the touchdown market, so let’s pivot to a brag-worthy play with much bigger potential returns.

Skyy Moore did next to nothing with his seven targets vs. the Bengals, turning that into 13 yards. But with the injuries to the receivers ahead of him on the depth chart, a path to legit snaps is there, and his anytime TD can be had for +800.

Kadarius Toney struggles to stay on the field and is dealing with an ankle injury on top of a hamstring issue that he dealt with later in the regular season. Moore would likely get Toney’s snaps as the No. 3 if JuJu Smith-Schuster returns from a knee injury, but that isn't a given either.

Mecole Hardman also possibly re-aggravated a pelvis injury that had kept him out of the lineup since early November. Andy Reid told reporters after the win over the Bengals that Hardman “gave it his best,” which isn’t very reassuring that he'll be 100% healthy come Sunday.

They say the best ability is availability and if any of these three receivers were to miss the game, Moore’s TD price of +800 would certainly shorten up.

Moore can also be used in the red zone and has a few carries to his name. Toney was getting some gimmick rushes and the punt returner and his 4.41 speed could be fed those opportunities if Toney can’t go.

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