Four Key Matchups That Will Decide Super Bowl 56

The Super Bowl is the most bet-on game of the year and with two weeks to analyze and prepare, every matchup is going to be scrutinized to the furthest extent. This article will simplify the decision and reference four key matchups and points to think about that will decide the Big Game. 

• How will the Bengals offensive line deal with the Rams pass rush?
• Can the Rams secondary hold up against the Bengals trio of wide receivers?
• Will an overrated Bengals defense be exposed by another top offense?
• Does coaching familiarity give one team a big edge?

Cincinnati offensive line vs Los Angeles pass rush

This is the matchup that will have the biggest impact in determining the Super Bowl champion.

The Cincinnati Bengals finished the regular season ranked 31st in pass block win rate, as their offensive line collectively won their blocking assignments just 49% of the time. Miami was the only offensive line worse at pass blocking than Cincinnati.

The Los Angeles Rams finished the regular season ranked first in pass rush win rate. Their defensive line beat their opponents in pass rushing 53% of the time — more than 12% higher than league average. Aaron Donald led all individual pass rushers in pass rush win rate, beating his assignment on 26% of snaps, more than 5% higher than the next-best player.

What makes this matchup more concerning for Cincinnati is that despite finishing 31st on the season in pass block win rate, it really has not been tested that much. With Burrow starting, it has played just three games all season against teams that rank inside the Top 10: Cleveland, Las Vegas, and Kansas City. 

There is a drop-off across the board for Burrow’s numbers when pressured — which is not different from other quarterbacks in the league who, when pressured, perform worse. But the big difference is when he is blitzed or not.

Burrow is one of the best QBs in the league when throwing against the blitz — this matchup is going to be won or lost based on how much pressure the Rams can generate without bringing extra rushers.

Los Angeles certainly has the talent beyond Donald to win this matchup, so this is a huge task for the Bengals’ offensive line to handle.

Cincinnati wide receivers vs Los Angeles safeties

The Rams lost both of their starting safeties in the final game of the regular season against San Francisco. Jordan Fuller — the defensive play-caller — was ruled out for the season with an ankle injury while Taylor Rapp has missed the past three games with a concussion and is a question mark for the Super Bowl.

The Rams secondary tends to get the benefit of the doubt for its ability in coverage due to the name value of Jalen Ramsey. But even with the league’s premier cover corner on the field, Los Angeles ranks just 21st in pass defense success rate. It has been fortunate to make it through the playoffs without those two key absences in the middle of the field not being exploited.

Arizona and San Francisco were both divisional opponents in third-time rematches. The Cardinals were without their best receiver and the 49ers with Garoppolo are anything but a deep downfield passing attack. The Buccaneers, in theory, should have been able to test the depth of the Rams secondary but entering the postseason they lost two of their Top 3 receivers.  

Cincinnati has a healthy trio of WR to take on the Rams safeties and their depth at corner. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd combined for 3,374 yards receiving, 222 receptions and 24 touchdowns during the regular season.

Ramsey is likely to move with Chase but there will be plenty of opportunity for Burrow to target receivers deep — especially if Rapp is still unable to go.

Los Angeles offense vs Cincinnati defense

The Bengals finished the season 13th in overall defensive success rate allowed and 11th in passing success rate allowed. Both above average numbers would normally be impressive… but there is an issue: Cincinnati played the second-easiest schedule of opposing QBs during the regular season.

Strength of schedule metrics are based on finishing team rank, so it might be easier than that considering the backups the Bengals have played since November — which includes Mike White, Josh Johnson, Case Keenum, and Drew Lock.

This season (including playoffs), Cincinnati has played just four teams that rank inside the Top 10 for offensive efficiency: Green Bay, Los Angeles Chargers, and Kansas City (twice). Here is how the defense fared in those games compared to average.

The Rams will be opponent No. 5 that ranks inside the Top 10 for offensive efficiency as behind Matthew Stafford, they rank fourth in the league for offensive passing success rate.

The likes of Rodgers, Herbert, and Mahomes had no issue walking up and down the field, and with the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. in this Los Angeles offense, it should find a lot of success too.

It will be interesting to see how Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo elects to try to defend the Rams. The biggest weakness for Cincinnati the entire season was defending the middle of the field against tight ends and running backs out of the backfield.

The Rams lost their starting tight end, Tyler Higbee, in the NFC Championship and do not frequently target running backs in the passing game. Instead of putting their linebackers in coverage against bigger targets, the Bengals will have to deal with the elite route running receivers L.A. has over the middle.

Sean McVay vs Zac Taylor

The media tends to beat Super Bowl storylines to death, so it is likely this gets a lot of play, but this matchup will matter more than the usual fluff coaching comparisons become.

Zac Taylor worked for two years under Sean McVay in 2017 and 2018, as an offensive assistant and then the QB coach for Jared Goff. The two were very close in their Super Bowl run in 2018. and it was the fame that their unique offense produced in 2017 and 2018 that earned Taylor interviews around the league where executives wanted any piece of the team they could get. The Bengals hired him and he has been in place with Cincinnati since.

For much of the season, the Bengals found ways to win despite their predictable play calling. Taylor ranked league average for early-down pass rate, despite an offense that ranked 19th in EPA/play from early-down runs and eighth in EPA/play from early down passes.

In the biggest game of his career against Kansas City, Taylor stayed extremely predictable and conservative, giving the ball to Mixon on early downs — which produced an awful 31% success rate.

Normally, coaching familiarity does not go far in specific game matchups but it is hard to ignore the difference in game-planning and play-calling ability between these two coaches. Taylor seldom shows any ability to produce something different, whereas McVay — although erratic late this season — has been known to be innovative on a week-to-week basis.

With extra time to prepare, it is difficult to expect Taylor to come up with something McVay does not see coming.

The unmentioned handicapping angles

Much of the media focus this week will be on the X’s and O’s on the field, but there are important handicapping angles that professional bettors value, which are worth mentioning and considering when making a bet on the game.

1. Cincinnati has been outgained in each of their three playoff games.

• Kansas City 5.6 yards per play > Cincinnati 5.4 yards per play

• Tennessee 6.8 yards per play > Cincinnati 5.4 yards per play

• Las Vegas 5.4 yards per play > Cincinnati 5.0 yards per play

Professional bettors put a lot of value on performance relative to box score. Despite winning all three games and making it to the Super Bowl, the advanced numbers within the box score do not bode well for validating the Bengals’ performances. 

2. Los Angeles has benefitted from playing divisional opponents in two of three games.

• Wild Card round versus Arizona and NFC Championship versus San Francisco.

Familiarity goes a long way in reducing game-planning effort during travel weeks. It is a unique situation that the Rams have been able to progress from the Wild Card round to the Super Bowl and play two divisional opponents along the way. This feat was not possible in seasons past before the addition of the extra team. 

3. Home field advantage is minimal and already priced into the game.

• The Rams have one of the least impactful home-field advantages.

• Home field was worth, on average, just one point during the regular season.

Much will be made of the Rams playing at home in SoFi Stadium, as it’s the second consecutive season where a team has played at home in the Super Bowl.

At the absolute most extreme estimation, the Rams have one point of advantage priced in, but even that is a stretch. This is a neutral-field game with both teams having an extra week to prepare.

Why will Los Angeles win?

The Rams will win and cover if their defensive line can win against the Bengals offensive line and get to Joe Burrow quickly, often enough to protect their secondary from giving up big plays to the trio of Cincinnati receivers.

There is little reason to be concerned that the Rams would struggle to move the football on the Bengals' defense — it all comes down to L.A.’s defensive line. 

Why will Cincinnati win? 

The Bengals will win and cover if Zac Taylor is able to put together an offensive game plan that is different from anything he has done all season and catch Sean McVay off guard.

The biggest worry for Bengals backers is that Taylor wastes too many early downs on runs and puts Burrow in a must-pass situation behind this offensive line. If he chooses to attack the Rams secondary with quick passes and up-tempo play to negate the rush, Taylor’s defense has a chance to play back and limit the Rams playmakers.

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