Today's NFL Picks

Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Denver
Pick - PROP
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Alec Pierce o34.5 receiving yards (-101)

The former Cincinnati Bearcat has stepped into a bigger role within this offense the past two weeks, snatching three of five targets for 61 yards vs. Kansas City and catching six of eight balls his way for 80 yards in the loss to Tennessee last Sunday. Pierce had his progress slowed by a concussion that held him out of Week 2’s shutout loss at Jacksonville but ever since getting back on the field, he’s gained the trust of his veteran quarterback.

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Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 12 hrs, 43 min ago.

Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Denver
Pick - PROP
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Matt Ryan o0.5 interceptions thrown (-120)

With Jonathan Taylor likely not playing on Thursday, Colts QB will likely be forced to throw a ton of passes against the Broncos. He's been relatively pass-happy to open the season anyway and has already been picked off five times. That trend should continue at Mile High.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 11 hrs, 53 min ago.

Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Denver
Pick - PROP
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Alec Pierce o34.5 receiving yards (-101)

One of the beneficiaries of Matt Ryan's increased passing volume is wideout Alec Pierce, who appears to be the veteran QBs No. 2 option in the passing game. He's hauled in 141 yards in the last two weeks alone and has a relatively modest total heading into a game that could feature a ton of passing with Jonathan Taylor potentially sidelined.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 11 hrs, 50 min ago.

Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Denver
Pick - PROP
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Mo Alie-Cox o18.5 receiving yards (-110)

Mo Alie-Cox led the Colts in yards (85) and catches (six) last week. It’s not just a flash-in-the-pan output for the TE as he is getting a ton of snaps (60% on the season) and is running plenty of routes. Denver is giving up 5.2 catches and 47 yards to opposing TEs this season while allowing a 72% completion percentage to the position. It's a great matchup and Alie-Cox doesn't need a crazy night to go Over this total.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 11 hrs, 48 min ago.

Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Denver
Pick - PROP
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Matt Ryan u234.5 passing yards (-120)

Denver currently sits fourth in Pro Football Focus' pass coverage grade (and fifth in pass rush grade) and has not allowed more than 179 passing yards to a QB so far this season — with three of those games coming against teams ranked higher (sixth, 16th, and18th) in dropback Expected Points Added per play than Indianapolis (23rd).

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Jared Hochman - Pick Made 11 hrs, 15 min ago.

Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Denver
Pick - PROP
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Matt Ryan longest completion u36.5 (-110)

For the year, Matty Ice has been very cool with short to intermediate passes, as his average depth of target is just 7.2 (35th among all QBs) and he's 28th in intended air yards per pass attempt. The Denver defense has also given up the fourth-lowest yards per pass attempt (6.0), fifth-lowest yards per completion (9.5), and has yet to surrender a pass play longer than 32 yards through four games.

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Jared Hochman - Pick Made 11 hrs, 13 min ago.

Indianapolis Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Denver
Pick - PROP
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Matt Ryan to throw an interception (-126)

When facing pressure, the veteran QB has just a 45.2% completion rate (24th in the league) and his lack of mobility leads to a 30.6% pressure-to-sack rate (third-worst among QBs with at least two games played), and his turnover-worthy play rate is 11.8% (also third-worst in the league). In comes the Broncos, who are 12th in pressure percentage and fourth in blitz rate, knowing they don't have to worry about Taylor (no offense to Nyheim Hines and Deon Jackson) — they're going to key in on hurrying Ryan into passes and sit on those short/underneath throws.

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Jared Hochman - Pick Made 11 hrs, 12 min ago.

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