Kansas vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rock Chalk Erasers

The Kansas Jayhawks look to rebound from a loss to TCU when they visit Big 12 nemesis the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday.

The Jayhawks endured their first defeat of the season last Saturday after TCU scored a game-winning touchdown with under two minutes to play in a 38-31 decision.

Now Kansas is forced to leave the comfort of home to make a trip to Norman, where traditional Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma will attempt to snap a three-game losing streak.

The Jayhawks opened as a 7.5-point underdog at the majority of sportsbooks, while the total has dipped from 64.5 to 62.5. Below are our best free college football picks and predictions for the Week 7 Kansas vs. Oklahoma battle.

Kansas vs Oklahoma best odds

Kansas vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

The Jayhawks saw their undefeated, five-win streak snapped in a tough loss last week that was made all the more crushing by an injury to quarterback Jalon Daniels that will likely sideline him for the remainder of the season. 

Daniels injured his throwing shoulder (right) before halftime and sat out the entire second half as backup quarterback Jason Bean stepped in to help lead Kansas on a comeback.

After trailing 10-3 at the half, Bean connected with tight end Mason Fairchild on a 12-yard touchdown pass to tie the game 10-all, then put Kansas ahead 17-10 on an eight-yard pass to Luke Grimm. TCU responded with a touchdown pass of its own and ran the ball in to go up seven, before Kansas had an answer.

The teams went back and forth the remainder of the game, with TCU ultimately having the final say with 1:36 on the clock.

The Jayhawks finished the contest with 540 yards of offense, including 351 passing, and averaged 5.0 yards per carry for 189 rushing yards. Bean, who was the starter for most of last season, went 16-for-24 passing for 262 yards and threw one interception. He also became the first Kansas QB to throw four touchdown passes in a half since Todd Reesing in 2008.

While Daniels has denied his separated shoulder will keep him out for all of the 2022 season, Bean is undoubtedly the starter against Oklahoma, a team in the midst of a three-game skid.

The Sooners’ most recent loss was one of the worst in program history. With the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers to the Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma suffered its most lopsided shutout defeat in school history with a 49-0 rout at home.

Ewers put up 289 yards and four touchdown passes in the blowout, while Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson rushed for 130 yards and two scores.

In Oklahoma’s defense, the team was also playing with a backup quarterback, Davis Beville, who got the start with Dillon Gabriel sidelined with a concussion. Beville attempted just 12 passes and generated 39 yards through the air, as Oklahoma lined up in the Wildcat formation for much of the game.

Texas held the Sooners to 195 total yards of offense and 3 of 15 on third down, while the Longhorns put up 585 yards, averaged 9.3 yards per pass, 5.9 yards per rush, and were 10 of 15 on third down.

Gabriel is expected to return on Saturday and has thrown for 1,215 yards on 63.9% passing with 11 passing touchdowns and no interceptions.

Before he got injured in the second quarter of a 55-24 defeat against TCU in Week 5, Gabriel had led his team to a 3-1 start, but his three victories came against UTEP (3-4), Kent State (2-4), and Nebraska (3-3). In a 41-34 loss to now-ranked Kansas State, Gabriel was sharp, finishing the outing with 330 yards and four touchdown passes on 26-for-39 passing, along with 61 rushing yards on seven carries.

His return to the lineup should help Oklahoma get back on the winning side, especially against a team the Sooners have beaten in their last 17 games in the series.

Still in concussion protocol, Dillon Gabriel expected to play Saturday vs. the Kansas Jayhawks. https://t.co/Ibp3LqPRdm

— Sooners Wire (@SoonersWire) October 12, 2022

But while Oklahoma has a chance to right the ship at home, Kansas should put up a close fight. Last year, the Jayhawks fell 35-23 at home with Bean at the helm of the offense and quarterback Caleb Williams — a top Heisman Trophy candidate since transferring to USC — leading the Sooners.

This Oklahoma team is of a different caliber than last year’s squad, which was led by Lincoln Riley, now head coach of the Trojans. The Jayhawks can give the Sooners a scare and will make this one of the closest battles in recent series history.

My best bet: Kansas +9 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kansas vs Oklahoma spread analysis

First-year coach Brent Venables has watched Oklahoma lose three straight to mark the first three-game losing skid by the program since 1998.

The defense ranks dead last in the Big 12 in yards allowed (450), rushing yards surrendered (214.5), and gives up 29.2 points per contest.

Kansas, meanwhile, ranks third in the conference in rushing yards per game (213.7) and averages 39.8 points per outing.

With Bean back to challenge the Sooners for the second straight year, he has experience on his side and the ability to come out strong like he did in 2021, when the Jayhawks got off to a quick 10-0 lead. 

This won’t be the typical blowout Oklahoma is accustomed to against the Jayhawks, who enter as a ranked team — just the third time since 1997 that Kansas has been in the AP Top 25 ahead of this matchup.

The Jayhawks are 8-0-1 against the spread in their last nine games overall, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six conference games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Oklahoma, on the other hand, is 1-4 ATS in the Sooners’ last five games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four conference games.

Kansas vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis

Even with Daniels sidelined against TCU, the Jayhawks maintained balance in their offense and might have won the game with more time.

Jason Bean is playing his heart out and Kansas just won’t go away. Tie game! pic.twitter.com/5iyUhgu27N

— CFB SHARPS (@cfbsharps1) October 8, 2022

Down 38-31 with 1:29 to go, Kansas reached TCU’s 34-yard line before turning it over on downs, but Bean showed composure, converting on 3rd-and-11 to keep the drive alive and played a mostly clean game, aside from an interception in the third quarter that put TCU on Kansas’ 26-yard line.

Kansas should be able to push the ball down the field against Oklahoma’s flailing defense, while the Sooners will have less trouble finding the end zone if Gabriel is cleared to play.

Oklahoma averaged 40.2 points through the first four games and put up 34 on Kansas State’s second-best scoring defense in the conference.

If Gabriel is healthy, we should see a shootout between these teams. The Jayhawks allow the second-most passing yards in the Big 12 (275.5). Oklahoma permits 235.5 through the air.

The total has shifted about two points in favor of the Under since the news of Daniels, but we will still see plenty of scoring.

While Kansas can have its way with Oklahoma’s run-stop unit, it’s unlikely the Jayhawks will build a big enough lead against Gabriel and company to stay low to the ground in this matchup.

Both teams’ pass attacks will take center stage if both offenses are at full strength, producing a points total similar to last year’s output. Neither team is throwing the ball away too often, and the Sooners average just one takeaway per contest. Kansas averages 1.6.

The Over has hit in three of Kansas’ six games this season and in both of the Jayhawks’ road tilts, while the Under is 1-3 in three Oklahoma home matchups in 2022.

The Over is 18-7-1 in Kansas’ last 26 road games and 19-9-1 in the Jayhawks’ last 29 games overall, while the Over is 4-1 in Oklahoma’s last five versus teams with a winning record. The Over has also hit in five of the last seven meetings in Oklahoma.

Kansas vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

Oklahoma is 1-3-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Oklahoma.

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